|
Why are missed nets excluded from a player's shooting percentage? For goalies it makes sense not to include shots that missed the net, but why aren't players penalized for attempting to score, and missing the net altogether?
This is especially frustrating with defensemen, some of whom blast it from the point with seemingly no real attempt to hit the net, and their shooting percentages will ultimately match those who consistently do their jobs, and get the puck through traffic and on net.
Here are the defensemen who hit the net most often. Given the recent studies that suggest certain players and teams have a persistent skill to block shots over which the shooter has little control, we won't include those. We're also looking only at even strength data, and only those who attempted at least 100 shots last season (of which there were 77).
Best defensemen at hitting the net
Defenseman Shot Miss HTN%
Steve Montador 98 34 74.2%
Erik Johnson 91 32 74.0%
Dan Hamhuis 85 30 73.9%
Jordan Leopold 78 28 73.6%
Joe Corvo 102 37 73.4%
Erik Karlsson 119 45 72.6%
Johnny Boychuk 134 51 72.4%
Kurtis Foster 94 36 72.3%
Zbynek Michalek 86 33 72.3%
P.K. Subban 116 45 72.0%
Minimum 100 attempted shots
HTN%: Hit The Net percentage
Steve Montador tops the list, the first of two of last year's Sabres. Erik Johnson is next, followed by the unlikely Dan Hamhuis and the second Sabre. There are no big names on this list, but it's interesting to see Erik Karlsson and P.K. Subban, two players with really impressive shots from the point.
At a glance, these players don't appear to have anything in common. Could there be some other factor that explains their success? While a goal is a goal no matter where it is scored, shots are unfortunately recorded differently from one arena to the next without very much consistency, so there's still some chance of scorekeeper bias.
Intuitively, distance could be a factor, but the average distance of their shots is 53.4 feet, which is fairly average (though again, shot distance isn't always recorded consistently or accurately). It's a fairly tight group too, ranging from 50.9 feet for Erik Johnson to 56.8 feet for Zbynek Michalek.
What about the type of shots they're taking? Slap shots are notoriously hard to aim, but this group takes a fairly average number of them—about 48.4%. Again it's a tight group, ranging from Boychuk and Foster (57.3-58.5%) to Hamhuis and Leopold (40.0-41.5%). Let's take the opposite approach and see if we can learn something from the league's least successful net-finders.
Worst defensemen at hitting the net
Defenseman Shot Miss HTN%
Derek Morris 61 43 58.7%
Drew Doughty 69 48 59.0%
Marc-Edouard Vlasic 85 59 59.0%
Jason Garrison 80 55 59.3%
Jack Johnson 89 59 60.1%
Anton Babchuk 82 53 60.7%
Alexander Edler 74 47 61.2%
Jason Demers 67 42 61.5%
Trevor Daley 88 55 61.5%
Tim Gleason 66 41 61.7%
Minimum 100 attempted shots
HTN%: Hit The Net percentage
Derek Morris is like that kid you played street hockey with that couldn't even hit the garage door behind the net, but Drew Doughty? Jack Johnson's another King on the list, along with two of their California cousins in San Jose, Jason Demers and Marc-Edouard Vlasic, so scorekeeper effects could be partly to blame.
Again, distance is not a factor, with the group average 53.5 feet just like the top ten, but it's not as tight a group. Doughty gets in really close (45.5 feet) while Tim Gleason must occasionally fire it from behind his own net (60.6 feet). In fact, we took a closer look and found no relationship between shot distance and hitting the net.
Derek Morris may be big on the slap shots (72.1% of his shots), as is Anton Babchuk (68.1%), but most of these guys are usually more careful, especially Trevor Daley who tees one up just 30.8% of the time. As a group they're only slightly more likely to opt for the slapper than the first group (50.2% to 48.4%).
Putting these two things together, let's unveil last year's leaders in real shooting percentage—goals divided by all attempted shots (except blocks). The leader comes as no surprise.
Best and worst defensemen by Real Shooting Percentage
Defenseman Goal Shot Miss RealSH%
Lubomir Visnovsky 11 84 50 8.2%
Jordan Leopold 8 78 28 7.5%
Eric Brewer 9 86 42 7.0%
Brent Burns 9 108 54 5.6%
Erik Karlsson 9 119 45 5.5%
Niklas Kronwall 6 76 39 5.2%
Drew Doughty 6 69 48 5.1%
Nicklas Lidstrom 6 89 42 4.6%
Kevin Bieksa 5 70 42 4.5%
Christian Ehrhoff 7 105 52 4.5%
…
Matt Carle 1 93 38 0.8%
Douglas Murray 1 90 44 0.7%
Dennis Wideman 1 88 51 0.7%
Braydon Coburn 1 95 47 0.7%
Mark Giordano 1 110 61 0.6%
Minimum 100 attempted shots, even strength
RealSH%: Shooting percentage, including missed nets
Lubomir Visnovsky scored on 8.2% of his attempted shots last season at even strength, in a season where only two others (Jordan Leopold and Eric Brewer) topped 5.6%. When dealing with such small sample sizes of 5-7 goals it's tempting to chalk it up to luck, but look at the names on this list. These are defensemen known for their consistent ability to score from the point (though Niklas Kronwall and Nicklas Lidstrom might have Tomas Holmstom's screening abilities to thank).
Despite his terrible aim, Doughty remains on the leaderboard, but behind the more accurate Leopold. On the flip side, it's amazing that Mark Giordano would attempt 171 even strength shots and only one would find the back of the twine. Is he snake-bitten, or unskilled?
Final Verdict
Wouldn't it be great if shooting percentages included when a player missed the net? It makes sense not to reward the goalies in those situations, but isn't a missed net (including a crossbar or goal post) just as much a failed shot as a save? Even more so, in fact, since a save might result in a rebound or an offensive zone faceoff, while a miss could even wrap around the boards and result in an odd man rush the other way.
At the very least, we should give some credit to players like Jordan Leopold who can consistently hit the net, and give his team a higher probability of scoring, unlike the Derek Morris' of the league.
Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.
| 
Howe and Why (11/07)
0 comments have been left for this article. 
