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Last week, we developed a theory that those who underperform scoring expectations after a deadline trade are likely to also underperform the following season. If that's true, here is the list of defensemen and forwards who may regress.
ePTS: Expected Post-Trade Points
Defenseman GP PTS ePTS Diff
Tomas Kaberle 24 9 15.7 -6.7
Eric Brewer 22 2 5.7 -3.7
Mark Stuart 23 1 3.7 -2.7
Bryan McCabe 19 6 8.7 -2.7
Rostislav Klesla 16 1 3.6 -2.6
Nick Boynton 10 0 2.0 -2.0
Too bad we didn't produce this theory before the Carolina Hurricanes locked up Tomas Kaberle for three years at $4.25 million per year, because he's started the season pointless and minus-3 after three games. Former Olympian Eric Brewer, who was offered four years at $3.85 million more for his defense, already has half of last year's scoring after just three games (one point). Neither Bryan McCabe nor Nick Boynton have been signed, and Rostislav Kelsa's $2.975 million for three more years has thus far bought Phoenix no points and minus-2.
Perhaps the only bright spot is in Winnipeg, who have Mark Stuart for three seasons at $1.7 million. He's gotten off to a decent start (one point and plus-1). Let's look at forwards.
ePTS: Expected Post-Trade Points
Forward GP PTS ePTS Diff
James Neal 20 6 13.2 -7.2
Kris Versteeg 27 11 17.8 -6.8
Michael Frolik 28 9 15.6 -6.6
Rich Peverley 23 7 13.3 -6.3
Dustin Penner 19 6 12.0 -6.0
Rob Schremp 18 4 8.8 -4.8
Chris Kelly 24 5 9.7 -4.7
Niclas Bergfors 20 7 11.2 -4.2
Radek Dvorak 13 1 5.2 -4.2
Alex Kovalev 20 7 10.0 -3.0
Just missed: Jay McClement, Brad Winchester, Jarkko Ruutu, Maxim Lapierre,
Marco Sturm, Jack Skille, David Steckel and Scottie Upshall
James Neal obviously missed the memo, having already bagged half of last season's six points. In fact, all of the top four have earned a spot on the scoresheets—you don't start finding early signs of disappointments until a little bit further down the list. It will be interesting to watch this as the season progresses.
For those who still cling to the notion that a strong post-trade performance is a harbinger of success, study defensemen Ian White and Alex Goligoski, followed by Paul Mara, Chris Campoli, and the swapping partners Erik Johnson and Kevin Shattenkirk.
Up front, Tomas Fleischmann's 21 points in 22 games was 11.4 more than were expected, and is deserving of a more detailed look, just like Blake Wheeler and Sergei Samsonov, each of whom scored 14-17 points down the stretch instead of the expected 9-11. Jason Arnott and Joffrey Lupul's hot starts could also have been foreshadowed by their post-trade scoring.
While the theory is currently based on very little data, the fun part of statistical analysis is using it to predict future outcomes, and seeing if it holds up. We'll be keeping our eyes on these unfortunate souls and update everyone later this year.
Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.
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Pucks From The Past (10/12)
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