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A hot goaltender can change the complexion of a series or even of an entire postseason. Top seeds can be upset, with underdogs advancing deep into the playoffs, as when Jaroslav Halak and the eighth-seeded Canadiens upset the Capitals and Penguins in 2010. And a netminder having a season -- and postseason -- for the ages can carry a good team to the grail that is the Stanley Cup, as Conn Smythe winner Tim Thomas did for the Bruins in 2011.
Before each of the past three playoffs, Hockey Prospectus and Insider set out to forecast goaltender performance, as measured by save percentage. Halak and Thomas were our second- and first-rated netminders the past two postseasons, so we've fared pretty well.
That said, goaltender performance can vary greatly in the small sample size of a short playoff run. In fact, we've seen how performances can vary greatly even from season to season with recent examples like Brian Elliott and Mike Smith. We do our best to predict which netminders may succeed or fail, with indicators like career playoff save percentage (modified this postseason to include only data from 2005-06 forward), current regular-season save percentage and current regular-season shots on goal against. Here's how the 2012 playoff field breaks down.
The Goalie Heat Index
Ranking the playoff goalies based on projected playoff save percentage (Note: "Playoffs" save percentage is since 2005-06).
Rank Name Team Playoffs Current SOGA Predicted
1 Tim Thomas BOS .935 .920 1659 .927
2 Jaroslav Halak STL .923 .926 1211 .923
3 Braden Holtby WSH N/A .922 192 .922
4 Craig Anderson OTT .933 .914 1917 .919
5 Jimmy Howard DET .919 .920 1496 .917
6 Mike Smith PHX .958 .930 2066 .917
7 Roberto Luongo VAN .917 .919 1577 .915
8 Corey Crawford CHI .924 .903 1507 .914
9 Ilya Bryzgalov PHI .917 .909 1554 .913
10 Martin Brodeur NJD .913 .908 1472 .911
11 Henrik Lundqvist NYR .909 .930 1753 .910
12 Marc-Andre Fleury PIT .910 .913 1768 .907
13 Jonathan Quick LAK .900 .929 1863 .907
14 Pekka Rinne NSH .908 .923 2153 .904
15 Jose Theodore* FLA .898 .917 1502 .902
16 Antti Niemi SJS .904 .915 1865 .901
*Projected starter
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3 comments have been left for this article. 
Player Power Rankings: Niemi Vaults To Top
How confident are you in these predictions? I find it hard to believe that Anderson could be predicted to have a higher save percentage than Lundqvist. Lundqvist was superior during the regular season and faced fewer shots. By my understanding, that means playoff percentage must account for the difference. Sure, Lundqvist's struggled, but Anderson has only had six games as was mentioned.
Is playoff goaltending really that different from regular season goaltending to justify weighting it so heavily?