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Well past the halfway point of the season and with the trade deadline less than three weeks away, it's a good time to check the Team Power Rankings to see which teams should realistically be buyers or sellers.
As usual, we start with an updated look at the components of GVT for each team. These stats, as well as our current Player Power Rankings and the GVTs you'll find on the Stats tab are for games through February 5.
Teams by Goals Versus Threshold - February 2012
Rank Team GP Pts Win% OGVT DGVT GGVT SGVT GVT
1 Boston Bruins 50 66 0.592 37.3 1.9 23.9 4.0 66.0
2 Detroit Red Wings 53 72 0.610 23.3 13.5 2.2 5.0 45.0
3 Vancouver Canucks 52 69 0.595 23.9 -1.6 12.0 -1.0 37.0
4 New York Rangers 49 69 0.632 1.0 10.7 23.7 0.0 36.0
5 Pittsburgh Penguins 52 64 0.552 12.9 12.5 -5.3 5.0 26.0
6 San Jose Sharks 50 64 0.574 5.3 12.0 5.1 3.0 28.0
7 Philadelphia Flyers 51 66 0.581 33.6 -1.8 -9.7 -3.0 20.0
8 St. Louis Blues 51 67 0.589 -11.4 21.2 15.4 -5.0 21.0
9 Chicago Blackhawks 53 65 0.550 23.3 -1.8 -15.2 1.0 11.0
10 Toronto Maple Leafs 52 60 0.518 18.9 -5.0 -5.8 0.0 9.0
11 Nashville Predators 53 68 0.576 4.3 -1.4 9.0 2.0 13.0
12 Washington Capitals 51 58 0.510 6.6 -3.3 -4.1 -1.0 -1.0
13 New Jersey Devils 51 61 0.537 -1.4 7.1 -13.7 7.0 -2.0
14 Los Angeles Kings 53 60 0.508 -30.7 9.4 17.7 -2.0 -1.0
15 Montreal Canadiens 52 47 0.406 -6.1 4.5 -0.7 -6.0 -11.0
16 Phoenix Coyotes 52 54 0.466 -5.1 -3.0 4.3 -3.0 -5.0
17 Dallas Stars 51 56 0.493 -4.4 -7.2 2.6 2.0 -8.0
18 Ottawa Senators 55 61 0.498 9.9 -16.0 -9.8 2.0 -10.0
19 Calgary Flames 52 54 0.466 -17.1 0.3 2.6 -1.0 -17.0
20 Florida Panthers 51 59 0.519 -8.4 -4.2 1.7 -3.0 -14.0
21 Anaheim Ducks 51 46 0.405 -5.4 -4.2 -9.3 -3.0 -22.0
22 Colorado Avalanche 54 55 0.457 -16.4 2.9 -5.9 6.0 -16.0
23 Edmonton Oilers 52 47 0.406 -4.1 -7.2 1.9 -1.0 -14.0
24 Tampa Bay Lightning 51 51 0.449 8.6 -10.1 -22.5 -1.0 -26.0
25 Winnipeg Jets 53 54 0.457 -14.7 -1.9 -0.4 -1.0 -18.0
26 Buffalo Sabres 52 50 0.431 -17.1 -7.4 -2.7 1.0 -28.0
27 Minnesota Wild 52 58 0.500 -23.1 -4.4 15.5 -1.0 -12.0
28 Carolina Hurricanes 54 49 0.407 -7.4 -9.7 -6.1 -4.0 -28.0
29 New York Islanders 51 50 0.440 -14.4 0.4 -6.3 0.0 -25.0
30 Columbus Blue Jackets 52 34 0.293 -22.1 -6.1 -20.2 -2.0 -54.0
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
Stats as of February 5
What's not shown above—why the offensive, defensive, goaltending, and shootout components of GVT don't quite add up to the total—is a factor dealing with empty net goals against.
How's VUKOTA doing?
Buffalo's the huge miss thus far, in the bottom five instead of in the top five. But as I said on Hockey Prospectus Radio a couple weeks ago, it's a team that's significantly less than the sum of its parts; they've been talented enough to be a playoff team the past few years, even a fairly highly seeded one. Phoenix and Ottawa continue to be modestly ahead of projections, but most of the other apparent "pretenders" have turned into what VUKOTA thought they'd be. Anaheim's recent rally is making our middle-of-the-pack projection a bit less egregious. And after a hot December, the Jets are back to exactly where VUKOTA Winnipegged them.
Team Power Rankings
As of Sunday, teams had played between 49 games (New York Rangers) and 55 games (Ottawa). With 52 games played on average, the season was 63% complete; we've basically hit the two-thirds points now, and we'll be at three-quarters at the trade deadline.
1. Boston Bruins, 66 points (.592)
January ranking: 1; Change: 0
Current GVT: 66 (1st); VUKOTA GVT: 17 (6th)
Every great team hits a rough stretch. Boston's lost four of six (including games after February 5) including a 6-0 drubbing by the rival Sabres. No need to panic, though; you might remember that they started the season 3-7-0.
2. Detroit Red Wings, 72 points (.610)
January ranking: 2; Change: 0
Current GVT: 45 (2nd); VUKOTA GVT: 11 (9th)
Nominally the leaders in the President's Trophy race, there are several quality teams—Boston, Vancouver, the Rangers, and others are still legitimately in the mix—that could end up tops in points for the regular season.
3. Vancouver Canucks, 69 points (.595)
January ranking: 3; Change: 0
Current GVT: 37 (3rd); VUKOTA GVT: 19 (5th)
There's no killer power play in the NHL this season, but the Canucks (22.7%) continue to pace the league.
4. New York Rangers, 69 points (.632)
January ranking: 4; Change: 0
Current GVT: 36 (4th); VUKOTA GVT: 20 (4th)
Despite adding stars like Marian Gaborik (11.7 GVT) and Brad Richards (2.7 GVT) over the past few seasons, New York is merely middle of the road on offense. A good defense and Henrik Lundqvist's Vezina-caliber campaign (29.6 GVT) have them among the NHL's elite.
5. Pittsburgh Penguins, 64 points (.552)
January ranking: 5; Change: 0
Current GVT: 26 (6th); VUKOTA GVT: 16 (8th)
Last month, we said that Evgeni Malkin had a chance to prove the doubters wrong, and he's done it big time. Gino is leading all skaters in GVT by a mile (18.5) and that's with half a dozen or so less games played than most.
6. San Jose Sharks, 64 points (.574)
January ranking: 8; Change: +2
Current GVT: 28 (5th); VUKOTA GVT: 17 (6th)
Logan Couture may have been "Mr. Irrelevant" in the All Star Game fantasy draft, but he's the best player on the Sharks again at 10.3 GVT.
7. Philadelphia Flyers, 66 points (.581)
January ranking: 7; Change: 0
Current GVT: 20 (8th); VUKOTA GVT: 8 (11th)
Steve Mason (-19.1 GVT) and Dwayne Roloson (-14.0 GVT) have hurt their team more as far as goals, but when you factor salary into the equation, Ilya Bryzgalov (-8.4 GVT) is the worst value in the NHL.
8. St. Louis Blues, 67 points (.589)
January ranking: 10; Change: +2
Current GVT: 21 (7th); VUKOTA GVT: 8 (11th)
The Blues are essentially in a flat-footed tie with the Bruins and Red Wings in 5-on-5 efficiency, at 1.53 GF/GA. In an increasingly 5-on-5 league, it bodes well for St. Louis both for the postseason and for the future.
9. Chicago Blackhawks, 65 points (.550)
January ranking: 6; Change: -3
Current GVT: 11 (10th); VUKOTA GVT: 22 (3rd)
Elite on offense (tied for 4th with 23.3 OGVT), Chicago's getting killed in net (3rd-worst -15.2 GGVT). Good thing Ilya Bryzgalov isn't available to fix this problem of underspending on goaltending.
10. Toronto Maple Leafs, 60 points (.518)
January ranking: 12; Change: +2
Current GVT: 9 (11th); VUKOTA GVT: -3 (17th)
We're only talking about fractions of a goal here, but who would have predicted that Joffrey Lupul (12.8 GVT) would be the Leaf that's remained among the top-10 skaters, ahead of Phil Kessel (12.0 GVT). While Brian Elliott's turnaround performance is a much bigger swing in GVT, we know that goaltending performance is volatile by nature, making Lupul's career year just as unlikely.
11. Nashville Predators, 68 points (.576)
January ranking: 15; Change: +4
Current GVT: 13 (9th); VUKOTA GVT: -2 (16th)
Barry Trotz is either the luckiest or most underrated coach around. Nashville is dead-last in Fenwick tied (44.6%) and Fenwick close (45.3%) but the Preds are still in the running for the President's Trophy.
12. Washington Capitals, 58 points (.510)
January ranking: 9; Change: -3
Current GVT: -1 (t-12th); VUKOTA GVT: 42 (1st)
The Capitals are being outshot by 3.2 per game but it's not quite that bad in close situations. An elite goaltender and veteran role players were imported in the offseason, the coach was fired in-season, which leaves…blowing up at least part of the core to bring a different mix into the locker room. Like the Sabres, the whole is less than the sum of the parts.
13. New Jersey Devils, 61 points (.537)
January ranking: 14; Change: +1
Current GVT: -2 (14th); VUKOTA GVT: -11 (22nd)
With Martin Brodeur (.893, -6.2 GVT) among the ten worst players in the NHL and the Devils fourth-worst in nets, you wonder if the all-time great might hang 'em up in the offseason. You always figured they'd have to pry the goalstick from his cold, dead hands, but maybe this slide in performance will be enough for the first ballot Hall of Famer to call it a career.
14. Los Angeles Kings, 60 points (.508)
January ranking: 13; Change: -1
Current GVT: -1 (t-12th); VUKOTA GVT: 9 (10th)
Amazingly, Los Angeles is essentially even in GD with a league-worst offense (-30.7 OGVT) that would even embarrass the likes of Columbus and Minnesota. Here's to Jonathan Quick.
15. Montreal Canadiens, 47 points (.406)
January ranking: 20; Change: +5
Current GVT: -11 (18th); VUKOTA GVT: -8 (19th)
Montreal always seems to make a run to squeeze into the seventh or eighth seed but it ain't happening this year. In the minor, short-term victory department: Rene Bourque has 1.1 GVT in eight games as a Hab, while Michael Cammalleri has -0.6 GVT in seven games for the Flames.
16. Phoenix Coyotes, 54 points (.466)
January ranking: 18; Change: +2
Current GVT: -5 (15th); VUKOTA GVT: -22 (27th)
It will be intriguing to see whether Phoenix is a seller at the trade deadline. In a vacuum, they probably should be, getting some value for the likes of Shane Doan and Ray Whitney. But with uncertainty about the franchise's future, it might not be in their best interest to drive fans away by shipping off popular faces. Mike Smith watch: the Coyotes netminder remains 12th among NHL goalies with 10.3 GVT.
17. Dallas Stars, 56 points (.493)
January ranking: 21; Change: +4
Current GVT: -8 (16th); VUKOTA GVT: -12 (23th)
Nine Dallas skaters have produced more value than the recently departed Brad Richards: Jamie Benn, Loui Eriksson, Michael Ryder, Mike Ribeiro, Sheldon Souray, Eric Nystrom, Trevor Daley, Alex Goligoski, and Steve Ott.
18. Ottawa Senators, 61 points (.498)
January ranking: 26; Change: +8
Current GVT: -10 (17th); VUKOTA GVT: -27 (28th)
Defense remains a colossal issue for the Sens, with only the Lightning within six goals of their -16.0 DGVT.
19. Calgary Flames, 54 points (.466)
January ranking: 17; Change: -2
Current GVT: -17 (23rd); VUKOTA GVT: 1 (15th)
Despite the public stand of Flames management, both Jarome Iginla (7.6 GVT) and Miikka Kiprusoff (.920, 12.4 GVT) should be on the block. Might be the last, best chance to do so.
20. Florida Panthers, 59 points (.519)
January ranking: 19; Change: -1
Current GVT: -14 (t-20th); VUKOTA GVT: -19 (25th)
Hanging on to a playoff berth for dear life, the underachieving Caps have kept the Panthers in the race this long. If there's no postseason for Florida, the past summer's free agent gambit will hurt the team going forward with nothing to show for it.
21. Anaheim Ducks, 46 points (.405)
January ranking: 29; Change: +8
Current GVT: -22 (25th); VUKOTA GVT: 2 (14th)
Another season of a hot stretch before the trade deadline, with wins in 11 of their last 15. For management, that streak should send the opposite signal that it's sending to fans. Sell high, while you can.
22. Colorado Avalanche, 55 points (.457)
January ranking: 22; Change: 0
Current GVT: -16 (22th); VUKOTA GVT: -19 (25th)
After the Devils, the season's second-best shootout performance belongs to the Avs, which provides a bit of whitewash on a team that's not particularly good. Here's some positive news, though: at midseason, Colorado was the NHL's youngest lineup at 24.6 years by Core Age.
23. Edmonton Oilers, 47 points (.406)
January ranking: 23; Change: 0
Current GVT: -14 (t-20th); VUKOTA GVT: -28 (29th)
All of a sudden, perennially disappointing Sam Gagner (7.5 GVT) is Darryl Sittler? They've been loading up on talent through poor performance and high picks, but that's only part of team building. We'll see what this team is when it grows up.
24. Tampa Bay Lightning, 51 points (.449)
January ranking: 24; Change: 0
Current GVT: -26 (27th); VUKOTA GVT: -5 (18th)
The Bolts have now passed the likes of the Senators and Blue Jackets in futility in their end of the ice, with a league-worst 3.33 GA per game. Which requires both poor defense and goaltending.
25. Winnipeg Jets, 54 points (.457)
January ranking: 16; Change: -9
Current GVT: -18 (24th); VUKOTA GVT: -18 (24th)
Last month, we advised "cooling your jets" despite the +9 jump in Winnipeg's power ranking. And here they go, back down to where they started. We'll give a nod to VUKOTA here.
26. Buffalo Sabres, 50 points (.431)
January ranking: 11; Change: -15
Current GVT: -28 (t-28th); VUKOTA GVT: 26 (2nd)
Terminal velocity. Blow this team up; many of the pieces could actually fetch a decent return.
27. Minnesota Wild, 58 points (.500)
January ranking: 25; Change: -2
Current GVT: -12 (19th); VUKOTA GVT: -30 (30th)
The Wild, all the way down at #27! Are we nuts? Although they remain on the playoff bubble, our crystal ball doesn't foresee any mid-April action in the State of Hockey.
28. Carolina Hurricanes, 49 points (.407)
January ranking: 27; Change: -1
Current GVT: -28 (t-28th); VUKOTA GVT: 6 (13th)
A nice run of play has Cam Ward above replacement level (.912, 0.9 GVT), but overall, it's been a dreadful campaign again for the Hurricanes; the last fire sale is still in recent memory.
29. New York Islanders, 50 points (.440)
January ranking: 28; Change: -1
Current GVT: -25 (26th); VUKOTA GVT: -10 (21st)
The occasional mention of a playoff race by certain elements of the media seems a bit delusional, but it's true that New York is only eight points out. Don't expect the Isles to be major sellers even if they fall further back; among other reasons, it's tough to sell when you're near the cap floor.
30. Columbus Blue Jackets, 34 points (.293)
January ranking: 29; Change: -1
Current GVT: -54 (30th); VUKOTA GVT: -9 (20th)
Re-signing veteran contributor Vinny Prospal made sense given the miniscule return you can expect for a player his age, even when they're performing well. That said, everything points to a fire sale making sense for Columbus.
That's our look at where teams stand for February. We'll check in again at the beginning of next month.
Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.
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Player Power Rankings (02/08)
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