Hockey Prospectus - NHL Preview: Predictions

With the 2013 season almost underway, it is time to put Tom Awad's vaunted VUKOTA system to the test. A shortened season, however, is generally a poor testing ground for rigorous statistical analysis, as the lesser number of games leaves much more room for small sample flukes to defy the projections.

That critical caveat in mind, the Hockey Prospectus crew was asked to put its collective analytical caps on and make individual picks for what will transpire this season. Our individual results are posted below. We would love to read your thoughts, too. Please leave your own predictions in the comments section.

Hart: Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins
Vezina: Jonathan Quick, Los Angeles Kings
Norris: Ryan McDonagh, New York Rangers
Calder: Mikael Granlund, Minnesota Wild
Selke: Jordan Staal, Carolina Hurricanes
Jack Adams: Dan Bylsma, Pittsburgh Pengins
President's: Vancouver Canucks

Dark horse team: Montreal Canadiens
[Ed: For our definition, dark horse = improve significantly from last season]
Surprise player: Carl Hagelin, New York Rangers
Team flop: Ottawa Senators
Individual disappointment: Mike Green, Washington Capitals
Random NHL prediction: NHL announces expansion

Hart: Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins
Vezina: Carey Price, Montreal Canadiens
Norris: Alex Pietrangelo, St. Louis Blues
Calder: Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues
Selke: Jordan Staal, Carolina Hurricanes
Jack Adams: No response
President's: Pittsburgh Penguins

Dark horse team: Ottawa Senators
Surprise player: Damien Brunner, Detroit Red Wings
Team flop: Phoenix Coyotes
Individual disappointment: Mike Smith, Phoenix Coyotes
Random NHL prediction: 5-8 seed wins the Cup due to the short season.

Hart: Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins
Vezina: Pekka Rinne, Nashville Predators
Norris: Alex Pietrangelo, St. Louis Blues
Calder: Mikael Granlund, Minnesota Wild
Selke: Dustin Brown, Los Angeles Kings
Jack Adams: John Tortorella, New York Rangers
President's: New York Rangers

Dark horse team: Dallas Stars
Surprise player: Evander Kane, Winnipeg Jets
Team flop: Phoenix Coyotes
Individual disappointment: Jason Garrison, Vancouver Canucks
Random NHL prediction: Canucks hold on to Roberto Luongo for the entire season, trading him before the draft

Hart: Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins
Vezina: Tuukka Rask, Boston Bruins
Norris: Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators
Calder: Mikael Granlund, Minnesota Wild
Selke: Jordan Staal, Carolina Hurricanes
Jack Adams: Jack Capuano, New York Islanders
President's: Pittsburgh Penguins

Dark horse team: Carolina Hurricanes
Surprise player: Peter Mueller, Florida Panthers
Team flop: Nashville Predators
Individual disappointment: Valtteri Filppula, Detroit Red Wings
Random NHL prediction: League attendance will be back to normal

Hart: Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins
Vezina: Cam Ward, Carolina Hurricanes
Norris: Alex Pietrangelo, St. Louis Blues
Calder: Justin Schultz, Edmonton Oilers
Selke: David Backes, St. Louis Blues
Jack Adams: Kirk Muller, Carolina Hurricanes
President's: Chicago Blackhawks

Dark horse team: Dallas Stars
Surprise player: Brandon Sutter, Pittsburgh Penguins
Team flop: New Jersey Devils
Individual disappointment: Rick Nash, New York Rangers
Random NHL prediction: Tomas Vokoun starts every playoff game for the Pittsburgh Penguins

Hart: Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins
Vezina: Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers
Norris: Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings
Calder: Justin Schultz, Edmonton Oilers
Selke: Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins
Jack Adams: Claude Noel, Winnipeg Jets
President's: Pittsburgh Penguins

Dark horse team: San Jose Sharks
Surprise player: Corey Crawford, Chicago Blackhawks
Team flop: Nashville Predators
Individual disappointment: Miikka Kiprusoff, Calgary Flames
Random NHL prediction: Columbus doesn't finish last in the league

Hart: Tyler Seguin, Boston Bruins
Vezina: Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers
Norris: Alex Pietrangelo, St. Louis Blues
Calder: Jonathan Huberdeau, Florida Panthers
Selke: Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins
Jack Adams: Ken Hitchcock, St. Louis Blues
President's: New York Rangers

Dark horse team: Colorado Avalanche (Viva la revolucion juvenil!)
Surprise player: Damien Brunner, Detroit Red Wings.
Team flop: Nashville Predators
Individual disappointment: Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators
Random NHL prediction: For the first time ever, Gary Bettman's entrance onto the ice to deliver the Stanley Cup is completely void of booing or heckling, as the crowd is struck into such an angry stupor that they are rendered completely speechless with rage.

Hart: Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins
Vezina: Pekka Rinne, Nashville Predators
Norris: Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings
Calder: Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues
Selke: Pavel Datsyuk, Detroit Red Wings (Reputation award!)
Jack Adams: Dan Bylsma, Pittsburgh Penguins
President's: Pittsburgh Penguins

Dark horse team: Colorado Avalanche (wins a playoff round, gives a team fits in round two before bowing out)
Surprise player: Mike Cammalleri, Calgary Flames
Team flop: Philadelphia Flyers
Individual disappointment: Scott Hartnell, Philadelphia Flyers
Random NHL prediction: The Devils scrape into the playoffs, somehow

Bonus Predictions
Ross: Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins
Richard: Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay LIghtning

Hart: Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins
Vezina: Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers
Norris: Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings
Calder: Cory Conacher, Tampa Bay Lightning
Selke: Joe Pavelski, San Jose Sharks
Jack Adams: Alain Vigneault, Vancouver Canucks
President's: Vancouver Canucks

Dark horse team: Dallas Stars
Surprise player: Justin Faulk, Carolina Hurricanes
Team flop: New Jersey Devils
Individual disappointment: Ryan Suter, Minnesota Wild
Random NHL prediction: Two of last season's conference finalists miss the playoffs (New Jersey and Phoenix)

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