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January 17, 2013
Shots On Goal
Fantasy Week 1

by Ryan Schwepfinger

As 30 NHL teams went to training camp last weekend, thousands of fantasy hockey players across North America went to their computers to form their teams for this shortened 2013 season. The length of the campaign will have an impact on fantasy owners as well, with the fantasy regular season reduced to 10-12 weeks of play, depending on your league's playoff setup. With less time to analyze and tinker your roster as the season progresses, it is more crucial than ever to ensure that your team is ready to go when the puck drops on Saturday—pretty much the same as what's being said about the real NHL teams. Getting off to a hot start could make a world of difference.

Schedule Analysis

We know that possession metrics are a big key to winning real-life hockey games, but they can help your fake team as well. When in doubt, you want players from teams that drive possession, or players facing opponents who struggle at doing so; those players are, generally speaking, more likely to score goals, record assists/shots, draw penalties (leading to power play points), and boost their plus/minus. Here are the schedules to target this week, ranked in order from most favorable to least favorable, For reference, Fenwick information from last season is included�green represents a top 10 matchup, and red bottom 10. Your upper third of favorability is below.

10 most favorable matchups, week 1

Vancouver opens the year on the easiest path, starting the season with three straight home games and four straight favorable matchups. The Blackhawks' matchups aren't particularly appealing, but they receive a major boost for their six-game week. None of San Jose and Carolina's matchups should scare you away. Buffalo has a five-game week and favorable opponents on paper, but they do play Carolina twice, a team expected to improve its possession metrics with the additions of Jordan Staal and Alexander Semin. You're playing your Penguins no matter what, and this is a particularly strong week to do so. A rough back-to-back is rewarded by a good trio of matchups late in the week. Ottawa, Tampa Bay, Florida, and Washington skaters all receive boosts this week due to favorable schedules. Give the fringe players on these squads slight upticks.

10 neutral matchups, week 1

Toronto's schedule could have ranked number nine or 10, but one home game out of five, as well as daunting trips to Pittsburgh and Madison Square Garden, are worrisome. Seven of the 10 teams in this group have only four games this week, but against a non-daunting group of opponents overall. It's an up-and-down week for Nashville, but two games against possession monster St. Louis, plus question marks about their offensive identity have me playing the "wait and see" card. Detroit bookends a soft midweek with rough games at St. Louis and at Chicago.

10 least favorable matchups, week 1

Minnesota, Columbus, and St. Louis have tough weeks to begin with, "eased" by green-coded games against Nashville, but we know that elite goaltending can overcome poor possession metrics. Still, in a condensed season, Pekka Rinne may not see all of these starts. Edmonton is another team on a four-week schedule, but three of the matchups are brutal—hold off on making rash decisions regarding Yakupov/Schultz evaluations for now. The Rangers open by running the gauntlet of the toughest teams in the Eastern Conference before finishing with a home date against Toronto.

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