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Fictional Saskatoon GM Ardal Ekrub begins the 1997 offseason with a very bold move. Over the past few years, he's been able to draft several of the best goaltending prospects available, according to his Project-a-Tron objective draft rating system. From 1994 to 1996, Ekrub has nabbed Jose Theodore, Martin Biron, and Mathieu Garon respectively, each time the best goaltender available. This has, of course, resulted in a surplus of netminders on his Reserve List. Ekrub hates nothing more than a wasted resource, and so cannot simply let these prospects sit in the minor leagues long term. He has to clear some space, at either the NHL level or in the AHL.
Taking into account the return available for each possible move, he decides to trade Felix Potvin, his starting goaltender since the 1992-93 season, and winner of three Stanley Cups. He does this to move Potvin before he begins a natural decline in performance due to age, which results in a player earning too much for what he contributes to the team. If he were to wait and Potvin's decline were to begin, this would impact his trade value as well. So although it might be an unpopular move with many fans, Ekrub must keep the team's interests in mind. He is comfortable with backup Stephane Fiset stepping in as the starter for at least a couple of seasons, while the younger netminders get a little professional experience.
So Potvin is packaged with Martin Straka and David Vyborny and sent to Vancouver for the first round (10th overall) and fifth round (119th overall) picks in 1997, and their second round pick in 1998. Ekrub does not get to use his own draft picks in the top 10, due to his team's consistent success, so obtaining such an early pick in another incentive to trade his starter. He then sends Boris Mironov, Dmitri Yushkevich, and Jan Caloun to Edmonton for their first round pick (14th overall), giving him three picks in the first 22. It's an embarrassment of riches for someone used to picking 25th or so.
Top 30 Players Available at 1997 Entry Draft
Rank Player Pos League PGVT+ Drafted
1 Thornton, Joe F OHL 19.7 1
2 Jokinen, Olli F Fin 13.5 3
3 Marleau, Patrick F WHL 13.4 2
4 Hossa, Marian F Svk 12.5 12
5 Samsonov, Sergei F IHL 12.0 8
6 Boynton, Nick D OHL 9.7 9
7 Lyashenko, Roman F Rus 9.4 52
8 Cleary, Daniel F OHL 9.1 13
9 Holmqvist, Mikael F Swe 8.4 18
10 York, Mike F CCHA 8.3 136
11 Luongo, Roberto G QMJHL 8.2 4
12 Mara, Paul D OHL 7.7 7
13 Butsayev, Yuri F Rus 7.7 49
14 Bicek, Jiri F Cze 7.6 131
15 Tkaczuk, Daniel F OHL 7.5 6
16 Afinogenov, Maxim F Rus 7.3 69
17 Huselius, Kristian F Swe 7.1 47
18 Kapanen, Niko F Fin 7.1 -
19 Lindsay, Evan G WHL 7.0 32
20 Dome, Robert F IHL 6.5 17
21 Sidyakin, Andrei F Rus 6.4 202
22 Somervuori, Eero F Fin 6.4 170
23 Ference, Andrew D WHL 6.3 208
24 St. Croix, Chris D WHL 6.2 92
25 Kariya, Steve F HE 6.2 -
26 Henry, Burke D WHL 5.7 73
27 Campbell, Brian D OHL 5.7 156
28 Tselios, Nikos D OHL 5.7 22
29 Dovigi, Patrick G OHL 5.5 41
30 Sarno, Peter F OHL 5.2 141
Ekrub uses his acquired picks to nab two highly-rated European forwards in Marian Hossa and Roman Lyashenko. It's just like old times, really, with a majority of the team's picks being used for cross-Atlantic players.
For several years, Ekrub has been giving defenseman a 15% increase to their adjusted projected peak GVT (PGVT+), in order to counter the fact that other NHL teams had for years done a much better job at drafting the best blueline prospects than other positions. Looking at the results of the 1996 and 1997 drafts, this no longer seems to be the case, as several of the better prospects have been available late in the draft. As such, the fictional GM decides this adjustment is no longer needed, at least for the foreseeable future.
Saskatoon Westerns 1997 Entry Draft Picks
Pick Player Pos League PGVT+
10 Hossa, Marian LW Svk 12.5
14 Lyashenko, Roman C Rus 9.4
22 York, Mike C CCHA 8.3
49 Butsayev, Yuri LW Rus 7.7
76 Bicek, Jiri LW Svk 7.6
102 Ference, Andrew D WHL 6.3
119 Kapanen, Niko C Fin 7.1
130 Campbell, Brian D OHL 5.7
157 Sidyakin, Andrei RW Rus 6.4
186 Kariya, Steve LW HE 6.2
213 Markov, Andrei D Rus 5.1
242 Whitecotton, Dustin C CCHA 4.9
By trading players for draft picks, Ekrub obviates the need for the massive cuts he has had to make in past years just to keep the team's Reserve List under the legal limits. As such he releases only Marc Bouchard, Xavier Delisle, Blair Manning, Jason Firth, and Roman Horak.
Saskatoon Westerns 1997-98 Reserve List
Pos Name Age Acquired
G Biron, Martin (k) 20 Draft, 1995 (15)
G Fiset, Stephane (k) 27 Draft, 1988 (24)
G Garon, Mathieu (k) 19 Draft, 1996 (36)
G Henry, Frederic (k) 20 Draft, 1995 (162)
G Theodore, Jose (k) 21 Draft, 1994 (26)
G Wilkinson, Derek (k) 23 Draft, 1992 (119)
D Boyle, Dan 21 Draft, 1995 (216)
D Brown, Jeff (k) 31 Draft, 1984 (30)
D Campbell, Brian 18 Draft, 1997 (130)
D Clark, Brett (k) 20 Draft, 1996 (77)
D Corvo, Joe 20 Draft, 1996 (49)
D Dahl, Kevin (k) 28 Trade, 1991
D Ference, Andrew 18 Draft, 1997 (102)
D Guren, Miloslav (k) 20 Draft, 1995 (52)
D Julien, Stephane (k) 23 Draft, 1992 (239)
D Kaberle, Frantisek (k) 23 Draft, 1992 (191)
D Keller, Aaron (k) 22 Draft, 1993 (155)
D Markov, Andrei 18 Draft, 1997 (213)
D Musial, David 21 Draft, 1995 (56)
D Numminen, Teppo (k) 29 Draft, 1986 (15)
D Salo, Sami (k) 23 Draft, 1993 (51)
D Smith, Ryan (k) 23 Draft, 1992 (143)
D Snell, Chris (k) 26 Draft, 1990 (249)
D Van Impe, Darren (k) 24 Draft, 1991 (104)
D Zhitnik, Alexei (k) 24 Draft, 1991 (65)
D Zidlicky, Marek (k) 20 Draft, 1995 (108)
D Zubov, Sergei (k) 26 Draft, 1990 (81)
C Bowler, Bill (k) 22 Draft, 1993 (285)
C Briere, Daniel (k) 19 Draft, 1996 (23)
C Brylin, Sergei (k) 23 Draft, 1992 (30)
C Kapanen, Niko 19 Draft, 1997 (119)
C Lapointe, Claude (k) 28 Draft, 1988 (229)
C Larouche, Steve (k) 26 Draft, 1989 (40)
C Lyashenko, Roman 18 Draft, 1997 (14)
C Malov, Roman 19 Draft, 1996 (186)
C Marchant, Todd (k) 24 Draft, 1992 (215)
C McLean, Brett (k) 19 Draft, 1996 (159)
C Nieuwendyk, Joe (k) 31 Draft, 1985 (9)
C Norris, Warren (k) 22 Draft, 1994 (104)
C Perreault, Yanic (k) 26 Draft, 1990 (102)
C Perrin, Eric (k) 22 Draft, 1994 (78)
C Robinson, Todd (k) 19 Draft, 1996 (105)
C Savard, Marc (k) 20 Draft, 1995 (27)
C York, Mike 19 Draft, 1997 (22)
C Whitecotton, Dustin 18 Draft, 1997 (242)
C Zhamnov, Alexei (k) 26 Draft, 1990 (60)
LW Bicek, Jiri 18 Draft, 1997 (76)
LW Butsayev, Yuri 18 Draft, 1997 (49)
LW Demitra, Pavol (k) 23 Draft, 1993 (77)
LW Hossa, Marian 18 Draft, 1997 (12)
LW Kallio, Tommi 20 Draft, 1995 (72)
LW Kariya, Steve 19 Draft, 1997 (186)
LW Kozlov, Vyacheslav (k) 25 Draft, 1990 (18)
LW Kratna, Ondrej 20 Draft, 1996 (132)
LW Miettinen, Tommi 21 Draft, 1994 (182)
LW Mikhailov, Egor 19 Draft, 1996 (212)
LW Recchi, Mark (k) 29 Draft, 1987 (142)
LW Shalamai, Sergei 21 Draft, 1994 (130)
LW Soderberg, Anders 21 Draft, 1995 (135)
LW Whitney, Ray (k) 25 Draft, 1991 (21)
RW Bednar, Jaroslav 20 Draft, 1995 (80)
RW Blazek, Tomas 22 Draft, 1993 (129)
RW Brousseau, Paul (k) 24 Draft, 1992 (23)
RW Cherbaev, Alexander 24 Draft, 1991 (109)
RW Dackell, Andreas (k) 24 Draft, 1992 (167)
RW Fleury, Theoren (k) 29 Draft, 1986 (204)
RW Gendron, Martin (k) 23 Draft, 1992 (71)
RW Hassinen, Jani 22 Draft, 1994 (234)
RW Kapanen, Sami (k) 24 Draft, 1992 (46)
RW Lehtinen, Jere (k) 24 Draft, 1991 (131)
RW Petrov, Oleg (k) 26 Draft, 1990 (57)
RW Prochazka, Martin 25 Draft, 1990 (144)
RW St. Louis, Martin (k) 22 Draft, 1994 (52)
RW Sidyakin, Andrei 18 Draft, 1997 (157)
RW Tuomainen, Marko 25 Draft, 1991 (175)
RW Varvio, Jarkko (k) 25 Draft, 1991 (153)
RW Vasiljevs, Herbert 21 Draft, 1995 (189)
RW Vujtek, Vladimir (k) 25 Draft, 1990 (207)
Players on Reserve List (Maximum 80): 78
Players Under Contract (Maximum 50): 49
The Westerns return to dominance in the 1997-98 season, topping the league with 114 points and 278 goals scored, fully 10% more than the next-highest-scoring team. The team's on-ice leadership really comes through: captain Joe Nieuwendyk and alternates Teppo Numminen and Mark Recchi all contribute at least 16.7 GVT to the team's credit, and Sergei Zubov also puts in an outstanding season.
New starter Stephane Fiset is fairly solid, but is a far cry from the performances of the departed Felix Potvin in recent years. Young Jose Theodore serves as backup for much of the season, and outperforms Fiset to a small degree.
Saskatoon Westerns 1997-98 NHL Season Results
GP W L T GF GA Pts Finish
82 51 19 12 278 196 114 1st place, Central; 1st overall
Player Num Age Pos GP OGVT DGVT GVT
Nieuwendyk, Joe (C) 25 31 C 73 17.0 3.5 20.5
Zubov, Sergei 46 26 D 73 11.5 7.4 18.9
Numminen, Teppo (A) 27 29 D 82 11.0 7.7 18.7
Recchi, Mark (A) 8 29 RW 82 13.3 3.4 16.7
Fleury, Theoren 14 29 RW 82 12.1 3.6 15.7
Demitra, Pavol 38 23 LW 61 10.6 2.9 13.5
Whitney, Ray 13 25 LW 77 11.3 1.7 13.0
Lehtinen, Jere 20 24 RW 72 5.4 5.7 11.1
Zhamnov, Alexei 23 26 C 70 5.7 4.8 10.5
Zhitnik, Alexei 44 24 D 78 6.5 3.5 10.0
Kapanen, Sami 42 24 RW 81 6.8 2.6 9.4
Fiset, Stephane 35 27 G 52 0.0 9.0 9.0
Perreault, Yanic 49 26 C 79 5.8 2.7 8.5
Marchant, Todd 39 24 LW 76 3.9 4.5 8.4
Kozlov, Vyacheslav 16 25 LW 80 6.2 2.0 8.2
Brown, Jeff 28 31 D 60 2.5 3.2 5.7
Theodore, Jose 33 21 G 26 0.0 5.6 5.6
Lapointe, Claude 17 28 C 78 0.1 2.8 2.9
Zidlicky, Marek 3 20 D 55 0.7 1.4 2.1
Van Impe, Darren 48 24 D 69 0.6 1.5 2.1
Brylin, Sergei 47 23 C 18 1.0 0.7 1.7
Dackell, Andreas 12 24 RW 19 0.0 0.9 0.9
Guren, Miloslav 19 20 D 8 0.4 0.1 0.5
Biron, Martin 43 20 G 4 0.0 0.3 0.3
St. Louis, Martin 15 22 RW 12 0.3 0.0 0.3
Perrin, Eric 10 22 C 12 0.1 0.0 0.1
Salo, Sami 5 23 D 51 -0.6 0.7 0.1
Briere, Daniel 18 19 RW 1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Brousseau, Paul 37 24 LW 11 -0.3 0.3 0.0
Dahl, Kevin 4 28 D 16 -0.7 0.3 -0.4
Total 82 131.2 82.8 214.0
We're now in the RTSS era of NHL stats, which gives us some more number to play with. The Westerns have two centers in the lineup, Joe Nieuwendyk and Yanic Perreault, who are among the very best at winning faceoffs since that statistic has been tracked. The team's faceoff totals are presented below; due to the contributions of these two players, Saskatoon is among the league's best on a percentage basis. We will be examining this year-by-year, to see if there might be more than just luck involved at landing two such good faceoff men as this. Perhaps high skill players (which is what you'll draft using the objective draft ranking that Ekrub uses) will tend to be good at faceoffs as well. After all, quick hands help both in scoring and in winning draws.
Saskatoon Westerns 1997-98 Faceoff Stats
Player Pos GP FO FOW FOL FO%
Nieuwendyk, Joe C 73 1349 802 547 59.4
Perreault, Yanic C 79 1234 682 552 55.3
Lapointe, Claude C 78 989 502 487 50.8
Zhamnov, Alexei C 70 803 390 413 48.6
Fleury, Theoren RW 82 310 166 144 53.5
Marchant, Todd LW 76 220 109 111 49.5
Demitra, Pavol LW 61 177 80 97 45.2
Whitney, Ray LW 77 145 72 73 49.7
Recchi, Mark RW 82 66 28 38 42.4
Brylin, Sergei C 18 42 19 23 45.2
Kapanen, Sami RW 81 42 18 24 42.9
Kozlov, Vyacheslav LW 80 22 8 14 36.4
Lehtinen, Jere RW 72 6 1 5 16.7
Dackell, Andreas RW 19 1 0 1 0.0
Total 80 5406 2877 2529 53.2
Playoffs, First Round
Saskatoon starts its fourth attempt at a title defense with a five-game victory over the San Jose Sharks (0-2, 3-1, 2-0, 2-1, 4-2). The Westerns score only 11 goals, but San Jose manages just six in response.
Playoffs, Second Round
With a sweep of the Edmonton Oilers in the second round (4-1, 1-0, 5-3, 2-1), the Westerns seem to be on a roll with an 8-1 record in the playoffs so far. A second consecutive Stanley Cup is looking more and more likely.
Playoffs, Third Round
The Dallas Stars put up a game fight in the third round, pushing Saskatoon to a seventh game. The Westerns are used to winning Game Sevens, though, and a one-goal victory eliminates the Stars (5-2, 3-1, 1-2, 6-2, 4-5, 0-1, 3-2).
Playoffs, Final Round
For the first time, the Westerns actually have a chance to repeat as Stanley Cup champions. But also for the first time, they lose a Stanley Cup Final series. After going up two games to one (3-2, 1-4, 6-2) against the Washington Capitals, the series becomes a low-scoring, tight-checking affair. The Capitals win the final three games by scores of 2-1, 2-0, and 2-1. Fans looking to blame the departure of Potvin for the team's loss can't overcome the exceptional performance turned in by Stephane Fiset, who allows more than two goals in a game only three times during the playoffs and makes a strong case for the Conn Smythe Trophy, which instead goes to his counterpart Olaf Kolzig.
Saskatoon Westerns Season Results Through 1997-98
Season GP W L T GF GA Pts Pct
1983-84 80 32 39 9 314 324 73 .456
1984-85 80 34 36 10 311 313 78 .488
1985-86 80 40 32 8 321 309 88 .550
1986-87 80 40 32 8 328 297 88 .550
1987-88 80 41 31 8 345 307 90 .563
1988-89 80 45 26 9 365 297 99 .619
1989-90 80 45 27 8 344 277 98 .613
1990-91 80 47 23 10 341 257 104 .650
1991-92 80 45 25 10 339 269 100 .625
1992-93 84 53 23 8 382 268 115 .685
1993-94 84 53 21 10 360 253 116 .690
1994-95 48 34 9 5 185 124 71 .740
1995-96 82 47 26 9 315 250 103 .628
1996-97 82 42 29 11 268 229 95 .579
1997-98 82 51 19 12 278 196 114 .695
Total 1100 607 369 124 4528 3451 1337 .608
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2 comments have been left for this article. 
Conn Smythe Watch: Lundqvist Leads
Trading away a solid prospect (David Vyborny) a 25-year-old All-Star goalie (Felix Potvin) and a 24-year-old legitimate 50-point guy, albeit injury prone (Martin Straka) for a handful of picks?
Vancouver had Alexander Mogilny, Martin Gelinas, Trevor Linden and Pavel Bure in their prime (25-27), with Markus Naslund just behind - and they signed Mark Messier in the off-season.
If Ekrub is putting together packages like that, perhaps it could be for a single superstar (like Pavel Bure) or a top-3 pick instead of a grab-bag of picks that are very unlikely to match their production - even if only from this point forward.
The Edmonton deal is a bit better. Boris Mironov is solid, with 31+ points in 3 of the past 4 seasons, but players like Yushkevich are findable, and Caloun's essentially a throw-in (a 24-year-old offensive-minded AHLer). I could see a deal for a mid-first rounder making sense for both teams.
You're quite right Rob, but given that this is purely hypothetical I'm trying to avoid claims of bias in the trades made. If anything I make the returns too low, as you say.