|
The young Blue Jackets have taken everyone by surprise by making the postseason. Rick Nash and Rostislav Klesla finally get the chance to taste the playoffs, while Detroit veterans Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk and Nicklas Lidstrom get the opportunity to repeat as Stanley Cup Champions. Anything less for a team that has won at least 50 games per year in four consecutive seasons would be failure.
Detroit Offense vs. Columbus Defense
Detroit Offense GVT: + 30.8 (Rank: 1st in NHL)
Columbus Defense GVT: + 17.5 (Rank: 2nd in NHL)
Columbus Goaltending GVT: - 2.9 (Rank 18th in NHL)
This is actually a fairly good matchup for both teams. The Red Wings have the most explosive offense in the NHL. Between Pavel Datsyuk, + 24.4 GVT, Marian Hossa, + 19.7 GVT, Henrik Zetterberg, + 15.5 GVT, Johan Franzen, + 15.2 GVT, and Jiri Hudler, + 10.9 GVT, Detroit has numerous options for putting up goals.
Columbus will have very good defensemen going up against the team from Hockeytown. In Jan Hejda, + 9.1 GVT, Fedor Tyutin, + 6.7 GVT, and Mike Commodore, + 7.1 GVT, Columbus has a group of defender who might be able to prevent the Red Wing offense from doing significant damage in this series. Just to note, the reason GVT does not match up for individual players and teams is because Goals Versus Threshold is standardized to be compared to league average for teams and replacement player for individuals. So Detroit as a team has been 30.8 goals better than the league average offense, while Pavel Datsyuk has been 24.4 goals better than a replacement player.
The goaltending GVT could be a bit misleading. 20 year old rookie Steve Mason has actually been the second best player on his team, behind Rick Nash. The problem is that the rest of the Columbus Blue Jackets goalies were absolutely awful. Pascal Leclaire didn’t help with his – 9.6 GVT, meaning a replacement level goalie from the AHL could have been 9.6 goals better than him.
Advantage: Detroit Red Wings
Columbus Offense vs. Detroit Defense
Columbus Offense GVT: + 12.5 (Rank: 7th in NHL)
Detroit Defense GVT: + 15.1 (Rank: 3rd in NHL)
Detroit Goaltending GVT: - 21.5 (Rank: 27th in NHL)
Going with the offense of Columbus up against the defense of Detroit, Detroit should have a slight edge. However, if you thought Washington Capitals goalie Jose Theodore was bad, you’ll need to watch Chris Osgood in the net. He has been flat out bad this season. The Red Wings are a proud franchise that has had the likes of Dominik Hasek, Curtis Joseph and Tim Cheveldae in goal during the playoffs. Having said that, Osgood has been much better in previous seasons and he has the most playoff wins for a Detroit goaltender, 57. In his 15 seasons in the NHL, his .887 save percentage is by far his worst. The Blue Jackets will be a challenge for him, as back on March 7, Osgood surrendered seven goals.
Rick Nash, who leads Columbus with a + 18.8 GVT, is the best offensive threat on his team. No other forward has even been one third of the player Nash has been during the regular season. It’s pretty clear that he will be the go to skater in this series for the Blue Jackets. This matchup will come down to whether veteran defensemen Nicklas Lidstrom and former New Jersey Devil Brian Rafalski can stop Rick Nash.
Advantage: Columbus Blue Jackets
Detroit Power Play vs. Columbus Penalty Kill
Detroit Power Play Offense GVT: + 23.1 (Rank: 1st in NHL)
Columbus Penalty Kill Defense GVT: + 3.6 (Rank: 13th in NHL)
This is clearly an advantage for Detroit. Nicklas Lidstrom averaged 3: 55 Power Play minutes per game, while Brian Rafalski averaged 3:45 Power Play minutes per game. Pavel Datsyuk, 11 Power Play Goals, and Henrik Zetterberg, 12 Power Play Goals, were fantastic during the regular season, both finishing in the top 30 for Power Play Goals. Jan Hejda, averaging 3:58 Penalty Killing minutes per game, and Mike Commodore, averaging 3:44 Penalty Killing minutes per game, will have to shut down a nearly unstoppable Power Play unit during the regular season in order to keep this series close.
Advantage: Detroit Red Wings
Columbus Power Play v. Detroit Penalty Kill
Columbus Power Play Offense GVT: - 20.0 (Rank: 30th in NHL)
Detroit Penalty Kill Defense GVT: - 9.0 (Rank: 25th in NHL)
This is the Achilles heal for both teams. Neither team was halfway decent in this special teams matchup during the regular season. For Detroit, Osgood is having a difficult season at even strength, so it should only get worse when the Red Wings have one less defender on the ice to help out. Nicklas Lidstrom, averaging 3:27 Penalty Killing minutes per game, and Andreas Lilja, averaging 3:20 Penalty Killing minutes per game, will have to take more pressure off of Osgood defending the net if Detroit doesn’t want to be held back from dominating opponents. The good news is for all of Detroit’s Penalty Killing problems, Columbus has been far worse on the Power Play. In fact, Columbus has been the worst Power Play team in the NHL this year. The top Blue Jackets Power Play scorer has been R.J. Umberger with 9 Power Play Goals. Noone else on the Blue Jackets Power Play unit has been nearly effective Umberger, which says more about their ineptness than their effectiveness.
Advantage: Detroit Red Wings
Season Series
Columbus and Detroit split the season series 3 to 3. The Blue Jackets blew out the Red Wings 8 to 2 back on March 7 when Osgood was pulled after allowing 7 goals. The Red Wings also shut out the Blue Jackets twice during the season.
Advantage: Even
Intangibles and Injuries
The Detroit Red Wings have been a perennial playoff team with veterans that bring Stanley Cup experience to the table. It’s not the experience that helps the Red Wings, as much as it is the talent of those players. However, the Blue Jackets brought in veteran players such as Fedor Tyutin, Raffi Torres and Mike Commodore, which should counterbalance Detroit.
Detroit Forward Kris Draper will be out for at least the first two games with an “Upper Body” injury. This is not a big deal, as Draper has posted a second worst – 3.3 GVT for Detroit in 79 games this season.
Advantage: Detroit Red Wings
Prediction
According to a combination of our goal-based rating method and winning percentage, the Red Wings have a 71 % chance of winning in the first round. This series looks fairly lopsided in favor of the Detroit Red Wings. However, that’s what I said about the Washington Capitals and New York Rangers series also. The Blue Jackets will have to remain out of the penalty box as that’s when Detroit is likely to do the most damage. While the Blue Jackets defense at even strength is impressive, the Red Wings offense at even strength is simply amazing. Detroit will also have to take some of the pressure off of Chris Osgood by allowing fewer shots on the net. While this might not seem like a difficult task, Columbus was able to fire at will against Osgood in their last matchup. As a result, Detroit is likely to surrender a game to Columbus. However, Detroit will stay true to form for the majority of this series.
Prediction: Detroit Red Wings in 5 games.
Andrew Rothstein is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Andrew by clicking here or click here to see Andrew's other articles.
| 
0 comments have been left for this article. 
Conn Smythe Watch: Rask Leads Race