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Riddled by injuries and dominated by the Chicago Blackhawks in the regular season, what will it take for the coldest playoff team in the Calgary Flames to win? Let's find out.
Chicago Offense vs. Calgary Defense
Chicago Blackhawks Offense GVT: + 19.1 (Rank: 5th in NHL)
Calgary Flames Defense GVT: - 0.6 (Rank: 17th in NHL)
Calgary Flames Goaltending GVT: - 13.3 (Rank: 21st in NHL)
Total GVT Difference: Chicago + 33.0
Chicago is very strong team offensively at even strength, and their current line-up averages 0.93 of offensive GVT/game (see detailed breakdown below). Their offense is spread out between Martin Havlat, Jonathan Toews, the one-way Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, and Kris Versteeg up front and Brian Campbell, the one-way Cam Barker, and Duncan Keith on defense. Andrew Ladd and Dave Bolland provide some depth offensively.
Calgary's is average defensively at best, producing a defensive GVT of 0.56 per game when healthy. Miikka Kiprusoff, no longer the Vezina-winning goaltender from years before, is statistically the worst starting goalie in the playoffs, and has a negative GVT. That means that if the Flames had lost him to injury this season, whoever they would have gotten to replace him would likely have been better. The Flames top defensive players are Rene Bourque, Craig Conroy, Cory Sarich, Robyn Regehr, and Curtis Glencross. Notice a pattern? If not, read the injuries section below.
Advantage: Chicago Blackhawks
Calgary Offense vs. Chicago Defense
Calgary Flames Offense GVT: + 23.4 (Rank: 4th in NHL)
Chicago Blackhawks Defense GVT: + 13.7 (Rank: 4th in NHL)
Chicago Blackhawks Goaltending GVT: + 6.7 (Rank: 10th in NHL)
Total GVT Difference: Calgary + 3.0
The Flames have a highly explosive offense at even strength, producing an offensive GVT of 1.00 per game. They have two of the league's most potent weapons in Mike Cammalleri and Jarome Iginla, who together provide a third of their impressive offense. Add Daymond Langkow, bring back a healthy Rene Bourque, and keep a red-hot Jamie Lundmark for almost another third. Craig Conroy and Olli Jokinen can also be good two-way contributors. Dion Phaneuf is their best offensive defenseman, but not as dominant as you'd think. Most of the remaining Flames defensemen can all chip in offensively to varying, but mild degrees.
The Flames are up against a very capable defense. The Blackhawks' current line-up averages 1.05 of defensive GVT per game, almost a third of which comes from the solid goaltender Nikolai Khabibulin. On defense both Duncan Keith and Aaron Johnson are the stand-outs, followed by Brent Seabrook. Up front Andrew Ladd and Martin Havlat have proven the most capable defensively.
Advantage: Even
Legend:
RPM: Relative Plus/Minus
ValO: Offensive GVT
ValD: Defensive GVT
ValG: Goaltending GVT
TOT: Offensive and Defensive GVT combined (Shootout GVT not included)
Player P GP G A PTS +/- RPM ValO ValD TOT
Martin Havlat F 81 29 48 77 +29 +17.9 11.1 5.6 16.7
Duncan Keith D 77 8 36 44 +33 +15.3 6.3 8.5 14.8
Jonathan Toews F 82 34 35 69 +12 +3.9 9.6 3.0 12.6
Kris Versteeg F 78 22 31 53 +15 +5.3 7.9 3.2 11.1
Andrew Ladd F 82 15 34 49 +26 +14.4 5.3 4.8 10.1
Patrick Kane F 80 25 45 70 -2 -7.7 9.1 0.6 9.7
Brian Campbell D 82 7 45 52 +5 -4.5 7.0 2.7 9.7
Dave Bolland F 81 19 28 47 +19 +4.9 4.6 3.7 8.3
Patrick Sharp F 61 26 18 44 +6 +2.0 5.9 1.8 7.7
Brent Seabrook D 82 8 18 26 +23 +6.7 1.4 6.0 7.4
Cam Barker D 68 6 34 40 -6 -11.1 6.0 -0.1 5.9
Aaron Johnson D 38 3 5 8 +19 +14.3 0.7 5.0 5.7
Dustin Byfuglien F 77 15 16 31 +7 +2.8 2.0 1.9 3.9
Matt Walker D 65 1 13 14 +7 -3.6 0.2 1.7 1.9
Troy Brouwer F 69 10 16 26 +7 +2.0 -0.4 1.9 1.5
Niklas Hjalmarsson D 21 1 2 3 +4 +1.4 0.1 1.1 1.2
Colin Fraser F 81 6 11 17 +3 -5.8 -0.8 1.1 0.3
Adam Burish F 66 6 3 9 +3 -1.6 -1.3 0.9 -0.4
Brent Sopel D 23 1 1 2 -4 -7.1 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5
Samuel Pahlsson F 65 7 11 18 -17 -21.0 -2.7 -1.7 -4.4
Goalie GP GAA PCT ValG ValD TOT
Nikolai Khabibulin 41.1 2.33 0.919 13.9 0.4 14.3
Cristobal Huet 39.2 2.53 0.909 3.7 0.8 4.5
Player P GP G A PTS +/- RPM ValO ValD TOT
Michael Cammalleri F 81 39 43 82 -2 +6.2 14.2 1.2 15.4
Jarome Iginla F 82 35 54 89 -2 +6.9 12.8 1.4 14.2
Rene Bourque F 58 21 19 40 +18 +15.8 6.9 4.6 11.5
Craig Conroy F 82 12 36 48 +20 +14.8 5.0 6.4 11.4
Curtis Glencross F 74 13 27 40 +14 +11.8 3.7 4.8 8.5
Olli Jokinen F 76 29 28 57 -12 -4.5 6.8 0.9 7.7
Cory Sarich D 76 2 18 20 +12 +7.8 2.1 5.3 7.4
Daymond Langkow F 73 21 28 49 +1 +7.2 5.8 1.3 7.1
Dion Phaneuf D 80 11 36 47 -11 -4.4 3.9 2.2 6.1
Adrian Aucoin D 81 10 24 34 -8 -3.8 3.1 2.0 5.1
David Moss F 81 20 19 39 -5 -3.5 3.3 0.6 3.9
Jordan Leopold D 83 7 17 24 -15 -2.6 0.8 3.0 3.8
Jamie Lundmark F 27 8 8 16 +2 +2.5 2.8 0.6 3.4
Mark Giordano D 58 2 17 19 +2 +4.0 1.2 2.1 3.3
Robyn Regehr D 75 0 8 8 +10 +5.6 -3.0 5.1 2.1
Todd Bertuzzi F 66 15 29 44 -13 -8.0 3.1 -1.1 2.0
Adam Pardy D 60 1 9 10 +3 +1.1 -0.3 1.6 1.3
Jim Vandermeer D 45 1 6 7 +1 -0.8 -0.7 1.0 0.3
Dustin Boyd F 71 11 11 22 -11 -12.6 0.3 -0.4 -0.1
Wayne Primeau F 24 0 4 4 -3 -3.9 -0.7 0.1 -0.6
Warren Peters F 16 1 0 1 -2 -2.2 -0.6 -0.2 -0.8
Andre Roy F 44 3 0 3 -1 -1.2 -0.8 0.0 -0.8
Eric Nystrom F 76 5 5 10 -7 -8.8 -1.3 0.1 -1.2
Goalie GP GAA PCT ValG ValD TOT
Miikka Kiprusoff 73.6 2.84 0.903 -2.1 0.4 -1.7
Curtis McElhinney 8.6 3.60 0.889 -3.4 -0.2 -3.6
Chicago Power Play vs. Calgary Penalty Kill
Legend:
PPO: Power Play Offense GVT
PPD: Power Play Defense GVT
PEND: Penalties Drawn GVT
PPTOT: Power Play Total GVT
SHO: Short Handed/ Penalty Killing Offense GVT
SHD: Short Handed/ Penalty Killing Defense GVT
PENT: Penalties Taken GVT
SHTOT: Short Handed/ Penalty Killing Total GVT
PPO PPD PEND PPTOT
Chicago 1.2 2.3 3.7 7.2
NHLRank 12 10 3 9
SHO SHD PENT SHTOT
Calgary -2.0 8.1 -1.3 4.8
NHLRank 24 4 20 9
The Calgary Flames are one of the league's better penalty killing teams and it should be enough to keep Chicago's above average power play at bay most of the time. This may be the one clear advantage for the Calgary Flames.
Advantage: Calgary Flames
Calgary Power Play vs. Chicago Penalty Kill
Legend:
PPO: Power Play Offense GVT
PPD: Power Play DefenseGVT
PEND: Penalties Drawn GVT
PPTOT: Power Play Total GVT
SHO: Short Handed/ Penalty Killing Offense GVT
SHD: Short Handed/ Penalty Killing Defense GVT
PENT: Penalties Taken GVT
SHTOT: Short Handed/ Penalty Killing Total GVT
PPO PPD PEND PPTOT
Calgary -6.8 -6.8 2.8 -10.8
NHLRANK 22 30 7 24
SHO SHD PENT SHTOT
Chicago 2.4 -1.5 1.8 2.7
NHLRANK 6 17 13 15
The Flames aren't hoping for many power plays. Not only has their own power play been weak, having gone through an unusually long and cold dry spell, but of all playoff teams, Calgary is certainly the easiest to score short-handed goals against. It's almost bad enough for the Flames to lobby for football rules where you can decline your opponent's penalties. Fortunately for them, Chicago's penalty killing is quite average.
Advantage: Chicago Blackhawks
Season Series
Chicago dominated Calgary this season, outscoring them 18-7 in four games, winning three contests with the fourth being decided through either a shoot-out or a 4-on-4 overtime period, neither of which apply in the playoffs. A Flames fan might hope that just gives them more game tape to study against an overconfident opponent.
Advantage: Chicago Blackhawks
Injuries and Intangibles
If things don't look bad enough for the Flames by this point in the article, keep reading. Five of their defensemen are injured or just coming back from injury, including key players like Dion Phaneuf, Robyn Regehr and Cory Sarich. If you include the four forwards in a similar boat, like Curtis Glencross and Rene Bourque, the Flames have easily the most depleted line-up. Meanwhile all the Blackhawks should have to worry about is the questionable status of Patrick Sharp.
There is one other key intangible: Nikolai Khabibulin. Ever since the potential Stanley Cup winning goal against him was missed in 2004, Khabibulin has played like a goalie with a chip on his shoulder whenever he has played Calgary. Will the Flames finally get their revenge?
Advantage: Chicago Blackhawks
Prediction
Using a combination of two methods based on both winning percentage and goal-based rating, Puck Prospectus gave Chicago a 62% chance of winning this series. Having examined these two teams in more detail, I expect the Chicago Blackhawks chances of winning are even greater. They've been just as good or better than the Flames in almost every category this season, including on offense, defense, in the net, and on the power play, while the Flames struggle through injuries and come into the postseason on an ice cold streak.
Prediction: Chicago Blackhawks in 6 games.
Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.
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