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GREEN LIGHTS
In Week 21, fantasy players from nine teams—Buffalo, Calgary, Chicago, Detroit, Florida, Minnesota, Vancouver, the New York Islanders and the New York Rangers—get a chance to play in four games, though the Sabres and Red Wings spend the entire week on the road.
"Projected rates" = VUKOTA-projected rates for the 2010-11 season, per game
"Recent performance" = Recent performance during 2010-11 season, per game
*Asterisk denotes second game of back-to-back games.
C Brendan Morrison, Calgary Flames
Projected rates: 0.18 G, 0.33 A, 0.50 P
Recent performance: 0.17 G, 0.67 A, 0.83 P
Overview: 4 games. 2 home, 2 road, 1 back-to-back
Schedule: @STL, @CHI*, CBJ, NSH
Signing with the Flames after being cut by the Canucks on the eve of the season, 35 year old Brendan Morrison has seen his points totals buoyed by Calgary's exceptional play of late…or is it the other way around? The Flames face Nashville's tough team defense (2.35 GA, 3rd in NHL) and Pekka Rinne on Sunday, but it's at home and as part of a four game week.
LW Erik Cole, Carolina Hurricanes
Projected rates: 0.21 G, 0.24 A, 0.44 P
Recent performance: 0.42 G, 0.46 A, 0.88 P
Overview: 3 games. 2 home, 1 road, 1 back-to-back
Schedule: FLA, BUF, @CHI*
Clarkson University alum Erik Cole has recently been putting up goals, assists and points at twice the level VUKOTA expected of him. Some of that's no doubt based on a fortunate 17% shooting percentage since January 7, but it's clear that Cole's always felt most comfortable playing in Carolina and that he feels particularly comfortable right now. As an added positive, the Hurricanes' week starts off against whatever's left of Florida, on Tuesday.
RW Drew Stafford, Buffalo Sabres
Projected rates: 0.27 G, 0.33 A, 0.60 P
Recent performance: 0.63 G, 0.33 A, 0.96 P
Overview: 4 games. 0 home, 4 road, 1 back-to-back
Schedule: @NYR, @CAR, @PHI, @MIN*
With a pretty ridiculous four hat tricks for Drew Stafford in the past two and a half months, there might be no bigger surprise in the NHL this side of Michael Grabner. While the 25-year-old winger's assists are sitting just where we thought they'd be, look for his goal-scoring rate to come back down to earth a bit once he regresses from his 18.8% shooting percentage…but maybe only a bit. Keep in mind that the former first rounder's shooting isn't a complete aberration, given that two of his four NHL seasons have topped 15.0%—in fact, last season's 7.7% was the real aberration.
D Bryan McCabe, New York Rangers
Projected rates: 0.13 G, 0.44 A, 0.56 P
Recent performance: 0.13 G, 0.29 A, 0.42 P
Overview: 4 games. 3 home, 1 road, 1 back-to-back
Schedule: BUF, MIN, @OTT*, PHI
While just about every veteran is on the block in Florida, Bryan McCabe became that much more likely to be moved due to his particularly poor counting stats of late: zero goals and three assists since Christmas—although he missed a month due to injury. But as the former Leaf hasn't been that far off of what VUKOTA expected in 2010-11, look for McCabe's assist rate to rise through playing on a better team than the Panthers. Additionally, with the Rangers' struggles on the man advantage compounded by the injury to Marc Staal, expect the 35-year-old defenseman to get significant power play time with the Blue Shirts.
D Alex Goligoski, Dallas Stars
Projected rates: 0.12 G, 0.41 A, 0.53 P
Recent performance: 0.17 G, 0.50 A, 0.67 P
Overview: 3 games. 0 home, 3 road, 1 back-to-back
Schedule: @PHX, @ANA, @SJS*
While it's silly to rate a trade based on the first couple of games thereafter, Dallas fans must be feeling just dandy over their acquisition of Pittsburgh's Alex Goligoski, a legitimate two-way defenseman, which had definitely been the weakness of the Stars' roster (though the Dallas faithful may be less sanguine about the swap once talented winger James Neal gets his act together again). Due to the Stars' deficiencies on the blue line, Goligoski should slide into the first power play unit and get significant time with their top lines.
G Niklas Backstrom, Minnesota Wild
Base projection: .910 save percentage
Recent performance: .921 save percentage
Overview: 4 games. 2 home, 2 road, 1 back-to-back
Schedule: CHI, @NYI, @NYR*, BUF
Since his return from injury on January 19, Niklas Backstrom has posted a save percentage below .900 in only two of 12 appearances. After taking a big step backwards (.903 save percentage) for the first time in his career in Year One of the post-Lemaire era in Minnesota, the 33-year-old Finnish netminder seems to be proving that he's still an elite netminder—Backstrom's .928 save percentage is just shy of his career high, set in his rookie season of 2006-07.
RED LIGHTS
Colorado is the sole team to play once twice this week. Out of the remaining teams, Columbus, Dallas, Montreal, Nashville and Pittsburgh play three away contests.
C Mike Richards, Philadelphia Flyers
Projected rates: 0.39 G, 0.54 A, 0.93 P
Recent performance: 0.25 G, 0.42 A, 0.67 P
Overview: 3 games. 2 home, 1 road, 0 back-to-back
Schedule: TOR, BUF, @NYR*
All in all, it's been a really steady season for Philadelphia's offense, a pleasant change after the roller coaster season in 2009-10. Unfortunately for (nominal) captain Mike Richards, he looks to have hit one of those stretches that reminds us of last season. And facing the likes of James Reimer, Ryan Miller and Henrik Lundqvist in their upcoming games, it might be hard for Richards to come out of his funk.
LW Sean Avery, New York Rangers
Projected rates: 0.20 G, 0.31 A, 0.51 P
Recent performance: 0.04 G, 0.25 A, 0.29 P
Overview: 4 games. 3 home, 1 road, 1 back-to-back
Schedule: BUF, MIN, @OTT*, PHI
Sean Avery's been pretty invisible of late, and that cuts two ways—in addition to the direct drop in production, he's gotten his playing time cut drastically by no-nonsense coach John Tortorella over the last dozen games. Further, the Rangers are liable to shuffle their roster a bit more before tomorrow's trade deadline, so who knows what additional players Avery might find himself competing for time with.
RW Nikolay Zherdev, Philadelphia Flyers
2008-09 rates: 0.28 G, 0.43 A, 0.71 P
Recent performance: 0.29 G, 0.13 A, 0.42 P
Overview: 3 games. 2 home, 1 road, 1 back-to-back
Schedule: TOR, BUF, @NYR*
After spending 2009-10 far away from the National Hockey League, Nikolay Zherdev looked to be a sensible, cheap gamble for Flyers GM Paul Holmgren, given GVT's of 13.2 and 8.9 in his last two NHL seasons. Unfortunately, Zherdev's unproductive play has led to healthy scratches and a trip through waivers; on Saturday, the 26-year-old Russian found himself back in the lineup for the first time in eight contests. As there's no guarantee that the fourth overall pick of the 2004 NHL Entry Draft will see more games in a Flyers' sweater, there seems to be utterly no reason to start him this week. In fact, Zherdev's probably not worth rostering at all unless he gets a change of scenery by 3 pm on Monday.
D Ryan Suter, Nashville Predators
Projected rates: 0.09 G, 0.39 A, 0.48 P
Recent performance: 0.04 G, 0.50 A, 0.54 P
Overview: 3 games. 0 home, 3 road, 0 back-to-back
Schedule: @EDM, @VAN, @CGY
Along with Shea Weber and Cody Franson, Madison Wisconsin's Ryan Suter (+20 plus-minus through 50 games) makes up the core of the Predators' fine defense. No knock on Suter here, but Nashville's visiting the Canadian portion of the Northwest Division just as they're faltering a bit (4-5-1)—and even Edmonton's playing .500 hockey of late.
D Erik Johnson, Colorado Avalanche
Projected rates: 0.15 G, 0.43 A, 0.58 P
Recent performance: 0.17 G, 0.25 A, 0.42 P
Overview: 2 games. 1 home, 1 road, 0 back-to-back
Schedule: @SJS, EDM
Sorry to say, Erik Johnson, but joining a team that's only scored more than two goals in four of their last 16 games isn't exactly a recipe for increasing your production. Throw in only two upcoming games, and there's no reason to start any Av in Week 21…unless you expect them to be traded!
G Steve Mason, Columbus Blue Jackets
Base projection: .907 save percentage
Recent performance: .899 save percentage
Overview: 3 games. 0 home, 3 road, 1 back-to-back
Schedule: @VAN, @EDM, @CGY*
Though absolutely on fire with seven wins, two shutouts and a .925 save percentage (Calder Trophy, here we come!) over the past month, the numbers over a slightly longer period of time are not even as kind to Steve Mason as VUKOTA was. You might be tempted to go back to the well with him again this week, but his medium term performance coupled with a tough Western Canada road trip indicate that you might be better off going with other options.
VALUE ADD
G Tomas Vokoun, Florida Panthers
Base projection: .918 save percentage
Recent performance: .922 save percentage
All right, obviously the Panthers' Tomas Vokoun isn't a free agent in your league, so that's not what this week's Value Add means. What it means is that you should actively try to trade for him in your fantasy league, ahead of Monday's NHL trading deadline. You have to think that with Dale Tallon's ongoing Florida fire sale that the soon-to-be free agent netminder will be moved to a contender as a rental—that should translate to a bump in Wins for the elite goaltender. Don't give away the farm for Vokoun, but if you're in need of a dramatic move to vault your fantasy team into contention, this might be it. But don't wait too long!
Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.
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