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The San Jose Sharks, by most people’s standards, are the cream of the NHL right now. The Presidents’ trophy winners have been among the elite of the league for several seasons now, but have acquired a reputation as playoff chokers following three consecutive second-round exits in the last three years. Their first-round opponents, the Anaheim Ducks, are only two years removed from being the Stanley Cup champions and still have the core of that elite team intact; yet the Ducks had to get hot in their last 10 games to squeeze into their eighth playoff spot. This matchup is much closer than the 1-8 pairing would suggest.
Team Off Def Goal ES Total
Anaheim Ducks -1.9 2.2 10.8 11.1
San Jose Sharks -9.6 21.2 -1.9 9.7
Legend:
RPM: Relative Plus/Minus
ValOG: Offensive GVT (Goaltending GVT for goaltenders)
ValD: Defensive GVT
Total: Offensive and Defensive GVT combined (Shootout GVT not included)
T: Traded during the season (Steve Montador was traded to the Boston Bruins)
San Jose Sharks
Player P GP RPM Val OG Val D Total
Joe Thornton F 82 15.5 12.3 5.5 17.8
Patrick Marleau F 76 11.1 9.9 5.9 15.8
Dan Boyle D 77 4.5 9.8 6.1 15.9
Rob Blake D 73 10.8 7.6 7.3 14.9
Devin Setoguchi F 81 16.5 8.7 5.2 13.9
Joe Pavelski F 80 1.2 6.6 3.8 10.4
Marc-Edouard Vlasic D 15 7.1 3.1 7.8 10.9
Ryane Clowe F 71 8.3 6.2 3.4 9.6
Milan Michalek F 77 8.5 6.5 4.6 11.1
Christian Ehrhoff D 77 -14.9 5.6 0.9 6.5
Mike Grier F 62 1.4 1.3 3 4.3
Jonathan Cheechoo F 66 -5 0.4 1.1 1.5
Alexei Semenov D 47 0.9 0.2 1.9 2.1
Brad Lukowich D 58 -0.2 -1.1 2.9 1.8
Douglas Murray D 75 -2.4 -2.2 3.6 1.4
Brad Staubitz* D 35 -0.3 0.1 0.6 0.7
Lukas Kaspar* F 13 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3
Travis Moen F 19 -2.7 0 0.3 0.3
Riley Armstrong* F 2 -1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3
Jeremy Roenick F 42 -2.3 -0.8 0.7 -0.1
Tom Cavanagh* F 17 -2.2 -0.5 -0.1 -0.6
Tomas Plihal F 64 -7.3 -1.1 0.5 -0.6
Ryan Vesce* F 10 -2.1 -0.8 -0.2 -1
Derek Joslin* D 12 -3.4 -0.6 -0.5 -1.1
Jamie McGinn* F 35 -6.8 -0.7 -0.5 -1.2
Claude Lemieux* F 18 -5.4 -1.2 -0.6 -1.8
Marcel Goc F 55 -9.5 -2.1 0.1 -2
Jody Shelley F 70 -6.9 -2.7 -0.2 -2.9
Player P GP RPM Val OG Val D Total
Evgeni Nabokov G 61.4 0 6 1.7 7.7
Brian Boucher G 21.5 0 5.1 0.8 5.9
Anaheim Ducks
Player P GP RPM Val OG Val D Total
Ryan Getzlaf F 81 8.2 12 2.9 14.9
Corey Perry F 78 11.4 9.7 3.4 13.1
Bobby Ryan* F 64 14.1 8.9 3.5 12.4
Scott Niedermayer D 82 -8.1 9.6 1.4 11
Teemu Selanne F 65 0.3 8 0.9 8.9
Chris Pronger D 82 1.1 5.4 3.7 9.1
Steve Montador (T) D 65 11.2 1.4 5 6.4
Chris Kunitz F 62 7.9 3.5 2.4 5.9
Andrew Ebbett* F 48 8.3 3.1 2.1 5.2
James Wisniewski D 17 3.1 1.5 1.4 2.9
Brian Sutherby F 17 5.4 0.7 1.2 1.9
Ryan Whitney D 20 1.2 0.9 1 1.9
Kent Huskins D 33 4.5 -0.6 2.3 1.7
Petteri Nokelainen F 17 2.2 0.8 0.8 1.6
Brett Festerling* D 40 3.5 -0.3 1.8 1.5
Brendan Morrison F 62 -0.7 1.2 0.6 1.8
Brad May F 20 4.8 0.2 1 1.2
Drew Miller F 27 -1.2 0.6 0.4 1
Sheldon Brookbank D 29 1.9 -0.3 1.2 0.9
Brian Salcido* D 2 1.9 0.2 0.5 0.7
Nathan McIver* D 18 1.7 -0.2 0.7 0.5
George Parros F 74 7.1 -1.5 1.9 0.4
Erik Christensen F 17 -1.4 0.4 -0.1 0.3
Ryan Carter F 48 2.3 -0.7 0.9 0.2
Troy Bodie* F 4 0 -0.1 0 -0.1
Ken Klee D 3 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.1
Matt Beleskey* F 2 -0.1 -0.3 0 -0.3
Francois Beauchemin D 20 -4.8 0.2 -0.3 -0.1
Todd Marchant F 72 -5.5 -1.4 0.8 -0.6
Brendan Mikkelson* D 34 -1.4 -1.4 0.5 -0.9
Mike Brown* F 28 -3.2 -1.1 0 -1.1
Bret Hedican D 51 -8.8 -2.1 -0.7 -2.8
Rob Niedermayer F 79 -21.1 -1 -1.7 -2.7
Samuel Pahlsson F 52 -18.1 -2.5 -1.6 -4.1
Travis Moen F 63 -20.1 -3.2 -2 -5.2
Player P GP RPM Val OG Val D Total
Jonas Hiller* G 41.4 0 14.8 0.1 14.9
Jean-Sebastien Giguere G 41 0 -3.4 -0.6 -4
Even-Strength: Sharks Offense versus Ducks Defense
For such a strong team on paper, the Sharks offense at 5 on 5 (even strength) is nothing to write home about. Joe Thornton is the leader as always and is the best offensive player on either of these two teams. Patrick Marleau has enjoyed a renaissance year after his miserable campaign in 2008, even though he cooled off in the second half. Devin Setoguchi currently completes the top line and has emerged as a force in only his second campaign. Those three represent a combined 31 of the Sharks total offensive GVT. While their second-tier players such as Joe Pavelski and Milan Michalek aren’t bad, the Sharks even strength offense ranked only 20th in the NHL. They face a strong defense anchored by veterans such as Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer, and a defensive stalwart in Steve Montador, whose +11 RPM is the best on the Ducks. In addition, they are backstopped by Jonas Hiller, who has been one of the top goaltenders in the NHL this year despite being, on paper, Anaheim’s backup. Jean-Sebastien Giguere, who was excellent in Anaheim’s Cup run in 2007 and phenomenal in their near-miss in 2003, will be able to step in should Hiller falter.
Advantage: Anaheim
Even-Strength: Ducks Offense versus Sharks Defense
The Ducks have an emerging superstar in Ryan Getzlaf, who finished the season on fire with 14 points in his last 8 games. Corey Perry and Bobby Ryan are their other main offense weapons at even strength. After those three, the drop-off is steep, and the fact that they face the best defense in the league makes matters far worse. Marc-Edouard Vlasic is the best defensive player in the series and the Sharks’ veteran blue line of Blake, Boyle and Lukowich kept shots against to the lowest in the NHL; Vlasic and Blake ranked 8th and 9th in the NHL in defensive GVT. Behind them stands Evgeni Nabokov, who is overrated but can get the job done. While many people say Nabokov must carry his team if the Sharks are to advance further than in the past, I believe his role is closer to that of Chris Osgood: don’t lose the game. The Sharks are good enough to handle the rest.
Advantage: San Jose
Legend:
PPO: Power Play Offense GVT
PPD: Power Play Defense GVT
PEND: Penalties Drawn GVT
PP Total: Power Play Total GVT
SHO: Short Handed/ Penalty Killing Offense GVT
SHD: Short Handed/ Penalty Killing Defense GVT
PENT: Penalties Taken GVT
SH Total: Short Handed/ Penalty Killing Total GVT
Team PPO PPD PEND PP Total SHO SHD PENT SH Total
Anaheim Ducks 14.4 -0.9 -5.3 8.2 -2.8 -5.0 -7.3 -15.1
San Jose Sharks 18.8 -2.7 3.2 19.3 5.0 7.0 5.8 17.8
Sharks Power-Play versus Ducks Penalty-Killing
The Sharks power-play is superb, scoring at + 19.3 GVT, second in the NHL. Thornton is the engine that makes it all go round, with 35 points on the power-play, but it’s here that the Sharks’ depth, especially on the blue line, pays dividends: Boyle is a phenomenal point man, with Blake, Erhoff and Vlasic all taking turns at the point as well. Despite scoring 87 power-play goals, no single player scored more that 11, a testament both to their depth and to their playmakers. To look just at the success rate, you’d think the Anaheim Penalty Killing, at 79.7%, wasn’t bad. Unfortunately for Anaheim, that would be considerably underestimating the depth of the Ducks problems: Anaheim is the fourth-most penalized team in the league, and combined with their below-average ability to score short-handed goals, being short-handed cost them -15.1 GVT, third-worst in the league. Hint: the two teams below them aren’t in the playoffs. The Ducks’ inability to stay out of the penalty box cost them 10 power-play goals against in 6 games against Dallas last year, and they’ll have to do better if they want to last more than 6 games this time around.
Advantage: San Jose
Ducks Power-Play versus Sharks Penalty-Killing
The Ducks have a strong power-play, led by veteran Teemu Selanne, who scored 28 of his 54 points on the power-play, and aided by Niedermayer, Pronger and obviously Getzlaf. For such an undisciplined team, they don’t manage to draw a lot of penalties: the Ducks only drew 309 power-plays, third-least in the league, which cost them -5.3 GVT. On the other side, the Sharks are almost perfect on the penalty kill: they stay out of the box, they don’t give up a lot of goals and they score a fair number themselves. San Jose had 12 short-handed goals, third in the NHL, with Marleau having a hand in 7 of them. Vlasic and Douglas Murray are also very formidible when it comes to scoring in short-handed situations.
Advantage: San Jose
Season Series
As division rivals, these two teams met 6 times during the season, with the Sharks emerging victorious 4 times. However, the Ducks’ two victories, 4-0 and 5-2, were convincing, with the last one coming on April 4th, a day before the Sharks returned the favor with a 3-2 win. Both teams scored 12 goals over the course of the 6 games, which at 2 goals per game, foreshadows a tight, closely fought series.
Advantage: Even
Injuries and Intangibles
While captain Patrick Marleau had a “lower-body” injury recently, he seems to have returned at close to full strength. Jonathan Cheechoo missed the last two games of the season, but it’s not as if the Sharks have been counting on him to light it up this season. Anaheim is pretty close to full strength, which means we’re going to see both of these teams at their best when the series begins.
I’m not a big believer in playoff “experience”: I think experience is another way of saying your players are good, and lack of any playoff veterans didn’t seem to stop the 2004 Tampa Bay Lightning or the 2006 Carolina Hurricanes, 2 of the last 4 Stanley Cup winners. However, suffice it to say that both of these teams are full of veterans. The Sharks and Ducks rank second and third, respectively, in number of playoff wins since 2004, and while the Sharks went out of their way to add veterans with Cup experience like Blake, Boyle, Lukowich, Travis Moen from the Ducks, and even Claude Lemieux, the Ducks have a ton of experience from their run in 2007. Both of these teams have been strong on the road, and while the Sharks have been on fire at home, home-ice advantage shouldn’t matter much.
Advantage: Even
Prediction
Looking at the regular season results, based on both win percentages and Bayesian Power Ratings, San Jose’s chances of winning the series are estimated at 77%. While Ducks fans will wail, the fact is the Sharks are the better team on paper and have been the better team on the ice for most of the season. Against the Red Wings or Bruins it would be a close call, but the Ducks are not that caliber of team any more. A good power-play and strong goaltending will keep them in it, but unless they control their tempers and Hiller turns into the reincarnation of Giguere in 2003 the Ducks will be golfing by May.
Prediction: Sharks in 6 games.
Tom Awad is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Tom by clicking here or click here to see Tom's other articles.
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