February 7, 2011
Up and Coming
The Value of a Draft Pick

by Iain Fyffe

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One of an NHL general manager's most important resources is the draft choices he receives at each year's Entry Draft. The trading of draft picks is very common, and sometimes draft picks alone are used to acquire players. In September of 2009, Toronto GM Brian Burke traded away his team's first- and second-round choices in 2010, and first-round choice in 2011, to acquire Phil Kessel from the Bruins. How does one go about determining whether a trade like this makes sense?

Obviously, one needs to project the future value of the resources that are exchanged by the two teams. Kessel had three NHL seasons under his belt at the time of the trade, recording the following GVT values:

Phil Kessel, ages 19-21
Age	GP	GVT	GVT/82
19	70	4.0	4.7
20	82	3.9	3.9
21	70	14.7	17.2

This value pattern is not at all unusual. In his first two seasons, Kessel was a useful player with very similar GVT rates. In his third season, he was given more offensive responsibility and performed very well, increasing his GVT rate to a very high level. Looking for players with a relatively similar value pattern, we find Patrik Elias and Keith Tkachuk, for example:

Patrik Elias, ages 19-21
Age	GP	GVT	GVT/82
19	77	3.6	3.8
20	75	4.6	5.0
21	77	10.1	10.8

Keith Tkachuk, ages 19-21
Age	GP	GVT	GVT/82
19	17	0.8	3.9
20	81	3.3	3.3
21	82	12.1	12.1

As it happens, both of these players have a peak GVT value of just over 20 (Elias 20.7, Tkachuk 20.4). Peak GVT value is defined as the player's GVT in the best five of 10 seasons after his draft year, on a per-82-game basis. It is therefore not unreasonable to think that Kessel will produce GVT values of around 20 per season when he reaches his peak. But even if we accept this value as a reasonable one, how do we go about valuing the other side of the equation, the draft picks?