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GREEN LIGHTS
Players from a full thirteen teams benefit from four games this week: Atlanta, Boston, Columbus, Colorado, Dallas, Detroit, Los Angeles, Minnesota, Montreal, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Jose and the New York Rangers…but keep in mind that Boston and Philadelphia face all road games.
“Base rate” = VUKOTA projected rates for the 2010-11 season.
*Asterisk denotes second game of back-to-back games.
C Derek Stepan, New York Rangers
2010-11 rates: 0.28 G, 0.28 A, 0.56 P
Overview: 4 games. 1 home, 3 road. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule: NYI, @NJD, @TBL, @FLA*
Probably a marginal player to roster on your team—depending on how many Centers are called for in your league—but the Rangers rookie’s on a bit of a roll again, with goals in each of his last three games. Given the Blue Shirts favorable schedule, you might want to roll the dice on Stepan if you’re looking for a fill-in for Week 12.
LW Loui Eriksson, Dallas Stars
Base rates: 0.38 G, 0.50 A, 0.88 P
Overview: 4 games. 2 home, 2 road. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule: @NSH, DET*, VAN, @STL
Though Dallas faces challenging opposition in Week 12, take a look at where they stand—their streak of excellent play has actually propelled them to a tie atop the Western Conference. Fifth-year man Loui Eriksson is one of many Stars having a fine season, second on the team in points to Brad Richards. The Swedish winger has been good for six goals and nine assists over the past month, and if your league counts power play points, Eriksson’s put up a big 7 PPP over that period of time.
RW Nikolay Zherdev, Philadelphia Flyers
2008-09 rates: 0.28 G, 0.43 A, 0.71 P
Overview: 4 games. 0 home, 4 road. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule: @VAN, @LAK, @ANA*, @DET
Not only is the man formerly known as Nikolai Zherdev on a pretty good roll—five goals in six games—but he’s finally getting rewarded with additional playing time as well. Though averaging only 12:20 of ice time, Zherdev’s now been called upon for over 16:00 in his last two games, his highest totals of the season. Going forward, continue to keep your eye on the winger’s usage, as it will dictate whether he’s worth picking up in your league or not.
D Tyler Myers, Buffalo Sabres
Base rates: 0.13 G, 0.44 A, 0.57 P
Overview: 3 games. 1 home, 2 road. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule: @CGY, @EDM*, BOS
Just as the Sabres seemed to be picking up some momentum, they’ve gone and lost three of their last four, in what’s been an uneven campaign for the blue and gold. To make things worse, not only hasn’t Tim Connolly returned from injury, but now top scorer Derek Roy may be lost for the entire season. Buffalo can take a bit of good news from the improving production of cornerstones Jason Pominville and Tyler Myers. Though struggling at times at both ends of the ice, Myers has heated up on offense to the tune of seven points over his last eight games. Sabres fans and management alike hope that it may be a sign of the sophomore finally starting to put things together in an otherwise disappointing season.
D Paul Martin, Pittsburgh Penguins
Base rates: 0.07 G, 0.31 A, 0.39 P
Overview: 3 games. 2 home, 1 road. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule: ATL, @NYI*, WSH
Former Devil Paul Martin has quietly put together a solid stretch of play, picking up four points and a whopping +9 rating over the past month. The three games on Pittsburgh’s schedule are largely favorable, getting both the 29th place Islanders and the still-struggling Capitals (2-5-3 in last 10 games) over the next seven days.
G Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers
Base projection: .914 save percentage
Overview: 4 games. 1 home, 3 road. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule: NYI, @NJD, @TBL, @FLA*
Despite lukewarm stretches here and there in a typically fine Lundqvist season, and despite a number of starts going to veteran backup Martin Biron, it’s shaping up to be a solid week for King Henrik: New York faces the two bottom teams in the NHL in the Islanders and the Devils as well as shaky goaltending in Tampa. And importantly, you have to figure that Lundqvist will receive at least three of the four starts given New York’s light workload in Week 11.
If you’re looking for a bonus choice in goal, lightly-used Los Angeles backup Jonathan Bernier might be in line to get two starts, with the Kings playing two pairs of back-to-back games in Week 12.
RED LIGHTS
The “featured” Washington Capitals are the only squad with as few as two games on the schedule in Week 12. And with none of the teams with three games facing all road games, there aren’t many other teams with overtly bad schedules.
C Marc Savard, Boston Bruins
Base rates: 0.27 G, 0.54 A, 0.80 P
Overview: 4 games. 0 home, 4 road. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule: @FLA, @TBL*, @ATL, @BUF
Marc Savard: tough, or just plain stupid? The guy misses half of last season with a concussion, sets himself back by returning too quickly…and now he’s involved in a fight with Atlanta’s Bryan Little? Maybe he’s trying to cover for the fact that he’s only got three points and a -4 rating over the past ten games, but Savard seems to be proving himself to be both a poor short term and long term option, for both his real and fantasy owners. A combination of lackluster results and reckless play should send signals to all involved to jettison this player as soon as they can sell high. Let’s not forget that he’s 33 years old as well, and could be at the end of his peak years, regardless of injury.
LW Simon Gagne, Tampa Bay Lightning
Base rates: 0.36 G, 0.42 A, 0.77 P
Overview: 3 games. 3 home, 0 road. 0 back-to-back.
Schedule: BOS, MTL, NYR
Simon Gagne continues his massive struggles, only managing to have scored in three of his 17 contests this season. To only have scored at this rate, given the considerable offensive firepower surrounding him either points towards serious lingering effects from his neck woes, a precipitous decline due to age or perhaps…feeling homesick for Philadelphia? Whatever the case, Steve Yzerman needs to think long and hard about how to fix this situation, an important, albeit secondary concern given the Bolts’ horrendous goaltending.
RW Marian Gaborik, New York Rangers
Base rates: 0.49 G, 0.59 A, 1.08 P
Overview: 4 games. 1 home, 3 road. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule: NYI, @NJD, @TBL, @FLA*
Rangers fans, Rangers management and fantasy owners alike are holding their breath: we’ve been conditioned to cringe when the words “Marian Gaborik” and “groin” are used in the same sentence. After already missing 12 games earlier this season due to a separated shoulder, the fragile winger missed the Tampa game before Christmas with a groin injury. While this shouldn’t be related to Gaborik’s chronic hip problems of the past, keep your antennae up regarding the situation. Though word is that he may well play on Monday, we wouldn’t blame you for having your doubts about using the Rangers sniper this coming week.
D Sergei Gonchar, Ottawa Senators
Base rates: 0.15 G, 0.56 A, 0.71 P
Overview: 3 games. 2 home, 1 road. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule: CAR, @CBJ, TOR*
To have a losing record in the Eastern Conference doesn’t say much for your team to begin with, and the news really could be worse for the Ottawa Senators, who have been outscored by 24 goals thus far in 2010-11, the fifth-worst mark in the NHL. 36-year-old Sergei Gonchar is one of many Senators having a down year. It’s been even worse of recent, with zero goals, two assists and a -7 rating to show for the past month’s travails.
D P.K. Subban, Montreal Canadiens
Base rates: 0.10 G, 0.33 A, 0.42 P
Overview: 4 games. 1 home, 3 road. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule: @WSH, @TBL, @FLA*, ATL
While the schedule isn’t too bad for the Montreal Canadiens, it’s hard to have much faith in what sophomore P.K. Subban will produce nowadays. The top prospect certainly looked to have a promising future based on his playoff contributions, but he’s found his way into coach Jacques Martin’s chateau bow-wow through his lackluster play. Unfortunately, the frequent benchings may have hurt more than they’ve helped: Subban has scored in only one of his last nine games, and has a -7 rating over that stretch.
G Sergei Bobrovsky, Philadelphia Flyers
2010-11 rate: .919 save percentage
Overview: 4 games. 0 home, 4 road. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule: @VAN, @LAK, @ANA*, @DET
The Flyers open up the post-Christmas schedule with a tough set of Western Conference dates that should thoroughly test even the team with the top winning percentage in the NHL. With red-hot rookie Sergei Bobrovsky cooled down to a mere .906 save percentage over the past month, don’t look for that percentage to improve appreciably given the difficult slate of games Philadelphia is facing. In addition, it’s possible that “Bob” might receive only two of the Flyers’ four road starts, especially with Brian Boucher playing well of recent and Michael Leighton on the mend.
VALUE ADD
C Travis Zajac, New Jersey Devils
Base rates: 0.31 G, 0.50 A, 0.81 P
Even with the Devils’ miserable season to date, it’s unlikely that Travis Zajac is a free agent that you could pick up; regardless, you might want to sneak him into a trade you’re trying to pull off in your league. Not only should Jacques Lemaire’s coaching start to pay dividends for the team as a whole, but the young Jersey centerman looks to be getting additional power play time at the point.
Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.
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Shots On Goal (12/19)
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