October 31, 2010
Shots On Goal
Fantasy Week 4

by Timo Seppa

With Halloween in the rearview mirror, it’s time for the second month of the NHL season, and the beginning of Fantasy Week 4. Our Green Lights and Red Lights are back to help you figure out who to stick in your lineup this week.

GREEN LIGHTS

Two thirds of NHL teams have a standard three games during Week 4, but a handful of teams are scheduled for either two or four games. The five squads getting the boost of the extra game are Carolina, Chicago, Philadelphia, Vancouver and the New York Rangers.

“Base rate” = VUKOTA projected rates for the 2010-11 season.

*Asterisk denotes second game of back-to-back games.

C Daniel Briere, Philadelphia Flyers

Base rates: 0.34 G, 0.47 A, 0.81 P
Overview:   4 games. 2 home, 2 road. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule:   CAR, NYR, @NYI, @WSH*

It wasn't too long ago that Danny Briere’s contribution compared to his cap hit didn’t look very good at all for Philadelphia GM Paul Holmgren. Now, after a scorching hot playoff run—30 points in 23 games—Briere has started the young season on fire again, with 8 points in 11 games. Expect the former Sabres centerman to continue producing, and to take advantage of a four game schedule this week—though keep an eye out for any supplementary discipline coming out of the high stick at the end of the Islanders game on Saturday night.

LW James Neal, Dallas Stars

Base rates: 0.37 G, 0.39 A, 0.76 P
Overview:   3 games. 2 home, 1 away. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule:   PIT, PHX, @COL*

Third year veteran James Neal looks to be building upon a great sophomore season, putting up point-per-game over production over the opening ten contests along with an impressive +6 rating. Dallas’ Week 4 schedule includes home games against Pittsburgh—potentially with the struggling Marc-Andre Fleury in net—and Phoenix, as well as a road game against Colorado, who’s now relegated to using backup Peter Budaj in goal while Craig Anderson is out with a knee injury.

RW Ryan Callahan, New York Rangers

Base rates: 0.28 G, 0.28 A, 0.56 P
Overview:   4 games. 2 home, 2 away. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule:   CHI, @PHI, @NJD*, STL

Blue Shirts’ winger Ryan Callahan took a step backwards in his age-23 season, essentially plateauing offensively while taking a big hit in plus-minus, going from +7 to -12. Things are looking vastly different this season, though. With Marian Gaborik and Vinny Prospal out of the Rangers top six until further notice, Callahan’s taking advantage of increased playing time (19:24 to 21:05) with 11 points in 10 games, including goals in four consecutive contests.

D Anton Babchuk, Carolina Hurricanes

2008-09 rates: 0.22 G, 0.26 A, 0.49 P
Overview:      4 games. 2 home, 2 away. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule:      @PHI, NYI, @FLA, FLA*

Two goals and three assists in ten games isn’t too bad for a veteran who couldn’t find a home in the NHL in 2009-10. Anton Babchuk doesn’t seem to have lost his fastball while spending last season in the KHL—his scoring rates are just about the same thus far as two seasons ago. Further, the 26-year-old blueliner is one of only two Hurricanes defenseman with a non-negative plus-minus despite a tough early schedule. And finally, Carolina is set to hit some home games and some easier competition.

D Christian Ehrhoff, Vancouver Canucks

Base rates: 0.14 G, 0.42 A, 0.57 P
Overview:   4 games. 2 home, 2 away. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule:   NJD, @EDM*, @COL, DET

Though he didn’t get any official consideration, Christian Ehrhoff had a Norris Trophy caliber season in 2009-10. But was the +36 rating a blip? Certainly to an extent, as Ehrhoff had averaged a +6 rating over the rest of his career. Yet there’s no denying that Vancouver is an elite team, and that can only bode well for the German blueliner’s stats across the board. Week 4 looks like a bonanza for all Canucks players, facing the struggling Devils, cellar-dwelling Oilers and the Peter Budaj-backstopped Avs before hosting the Red Wings at home.

G Marty Turco, Chicago Blackhawks

Base projection: .907 save percentage
Overview:         4 games. 2 home, 2 away. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule:         @NYR, NJD, @ATL, EDM*

Putting aside a disastrous start against lowly Edmonton on Friday, new starter Marty Turco has been taking advantage of playing with last season’s Stanley Cup champions, notching six wins in ten attempts—expected—while putting up a .920 save percentage—less expected. Thus far, the former Star has started ten of the Blackhawks’ first 13 games, so you’d figure he’ll probably get three of the four starts in Week 4. The opposition’s favorable, so you should feel comfortable starting your Hawks’ role players this week as well.

RED LIGHTS

Calgary, Colorado and Los Angeles have only two games on their schedule, so you’ll want to steer away from their players in Week 4.

C Jason Arnott, New Jersey Devils

Base rates: 0.31 G, 0.38 A, 0.70 P
Overview:   3 games. 1 home, 2 away. 0 back-to-back.
Schedule:   @VAN, @CHI, NYR

Sure, offseason re-acquisition Jason Arnott has posted a half-decent five points in 11 games for the offensively challenged Devils, but—avert your eyes—he’s somehow at -10 for the season already. And he’s not the only one with lousy stats, either. Stay far, far away from starting any Devils until further notice—with only one or two obvious exceptions. The power play has been particularly dreadful for New Jersey (7.7%, 30th in NHL). The continuing road trip through the Western Conference’s best teams isn’t going to help matters.

LW Rene Bourque, Calgary Flames

Base rates: 0.34 G, 0.42 A, 0.76 P
Overview:   2 games. 1 home, 1 away. 0 back-to-back.
Schedule:   DET, @MIN

Though the early season success of Calgary is a bit of a surprise, don’t expect much from the meager opportunities this week, even for the Flames best players, like Rene Bourque. Though second on Calgary with nine points in nine games, facing Jimmy Howard and the Red Wings will be a tough test for the talented winger, with the Flames only other game on the road in Minnesota.

RW Michael Ryder, Boston Bruins

Base rates: 0.28 G, 0.28 A, 0.56 P
Overview:   3 games. 1 home, 2 away. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule:   @BUF, @WSH, STL*

With Boston going well again behind the stellar early season goaltending of Tim Thomas—remember him?—and the formidable firepower of new acquisition Nathan Horton, you might expect all of the Bruins who had big seasons back in 2008-09 to be back among the best players you could be starting in fantasy hockey, but that’s not true across the board. Michael Ryder’s production was always a little suspect, and power play driven at that. On a team with plus ratings across the board, Ryder has somehow managed -2 thus far in 2010-11, the worst mark on the Bruins. Facing Ryan Miller, Michal Neuvirth and Jaroslav Halak shouldn’t help the production much, and the quality of the opposition may further sink his plus-minus as well.

D Kris Letang, Pittsburgh Penguins

Base rate: 0.13 G, 0.37 A, 0.50 P
Overview:  3 games. 0 home, 3 away. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule:  @DAL, @ANA, @PHX*

Kris Letang has started the season on fire, only second to Sidney Crosby with 11 points among Penguins players. While he’s getting additional playing time that Sergei Gonchar received in the past, a doubling of his previous points-per-game rate is clearly not sustainable. Though Letang looks to be a surprisingly solid fantasy choice this season, this may be the week to shy away from him, if you have other options. Pittsburgh is facing above average goaltending—Kari Lehtonen, Jonas Hiller and Ilya Bryzgalov—on a challenging western road trip.

D Jack Johnson, Los Angeles Kings

Base rates: 0.11 G, 0.40 A, 0.51 P
Overview:   2 games. 2 home, 0 away. 0 back-to-back.
Schedule:   TBL, NSH

Offensive defenseman Jack Johnson has seven helpers in ten games for Los Angeles but won’t have many opportunities this week. Johnson and the rest of the Kings may be at home, but their only contests will be against the up-and-coming Lightning and perennially overachieving Predators.

G Peter Budaj, Colorado Avalanche

Base projection: .906 save percentage
Overview:         2 games. 2 home, 0 away. 0 back-to-back.
Schedule:         VAN, DAL

Peter Budaj is a popular Add in many leagues as he will be filling in for the injured Craig Anderson indefinitely. While you can certainly roll the dice on adding Budaj if your team is weak in goal, Week 4 isn’t the week to expect much return from him, with Colorado facing sparse but strong opposition in Vancouver and Dallas.

VALUE ADD

C/W Josh Bailey, New York Islanders

Base rates: 0.23 G, 0.32 A, 0.55 P

Though he already has two campaigns under his belt, don’t forget that Josh Bailey is only entering his age-21 season in the NHL, so his production may still see an improvement. While Bailey might not keep up his current 0.67 points per game pace, it shouldn’t shock anyone to see him comfortably exceed last season’s 0.48 points per game or VUKOTA’s 0.55 points per game. Back in action after being sidelined with injury for three games, Bailey’s getting nearly four more minutes of ice time than he received in 2009-10. An additional bonus is Bailey’s dual eligibility at Center and Wing in many fantasy leagues.

Timo Seppa runs the statistical hockey site Ice Hockey Metrics and is co-editor of Hockey Prospectus 2010-11. Follow Timo on Twitter at @timoseppa.

Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus. You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.