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Displaying pretext
When we last looked at the development of the Inductinator, we saw that All-Star Team selections were an important predictor for Hall of Fame induction. Over the summer, the Inductinator has been developed and refined to incorporate the results of the 2010 Hall of Fame selections, and it's ready to be rolled out. You might recall that Dino Ciccarelli was the only NHL player going into the Hall this year. That was something of a relief; let me tell you, it was not easy to build a stats-based Hall of Fame predictor that ended up with a 600-goal man not making the list. It was possible, but now fewer contortions are needed in the system.
The Inductinator does not only predict whether a player will be inducted into the Hall of Fame (no percentage chances, just a simple yes or no), it also estimates the number of years the player will have to wait before being honored. Players are eligible for the Hall after having been retired for three years, so if a player who retired in 2010 is estimated to have a 2-year wait before being inducted, he is expected to be honored in 2015.
Remember that the Inductinator is not intended to determine who should be in the the Hall, but rather who will be inducted, based on statistical standards inferred from previous Hall of Fame inductions, looking at modern players only. We'll look at defensemen this week, forwards next week, and we'll finish off with the goaltenders and a summary. For each group of players, an Inductinator score of at least 100 means the player should be expected to get into the Hall of Fame. The higher the score, the shorter the wait. It should be noted that while 100 is the cutoff for all positions, the three groups (forwards, defensemen, and goalies) don't really use the same scale. A forward with a score of 200 is not necessarily the same thing as a defenseman with the same rating.
Among modern defensemen, we have 14 Hall-of-Famers. They are:
Bobby Orr (1979) Larry Robinson (1995) Larry Murphy (2004)
Serge Savard (1986) Borje Salming (1996) Al MacInnis (2007)
Brad Park (1988) Rod Langway (2002) Scott Stevens (2007)
Denis Potvin (1991) Ray Bourque (2004) Brian Leetch (2009)
Guy Lapointe (1993) Paul Coffey (2004)
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