October 17, 2010
Shots On Goal
Fantasy Week 2

by Timo Seppa

With all teams back on North American soil, we’re ready for the first normal NHL week, both in real life and for your fantasy hockey teams. So for Shots On Goal this week, we’ll again look at good values at each position that you might want to consider including in your lineup (“Green Light”) as well as prominent players at each position that you might want to consider benching (“Red Light”). We’ll also look at how the Week 1 Green Lights and Red Lights panned out as well as pointing out a free agent pickup (“Value Add”) that could help out your fantasy team.

GREEN LIGHT

For Week 2, we’re back to a run-of-the-mill seven days, which has each NHL team playing in either two, three or four games. Squads getting the benefit of four games are Calgary, Chicago, Nashville, San Jose, Tampa Bay and the New York Rangers.

“Base rate” = VUKOTA projected rates for the 2010-11 season.

*Asterisk denotes second game of back-to-back games.

C Logan Couture, San Jose Sharks

Base rates: 0.22 G, 0.19 A, 0.42 P
Overview:   4 games. 1 home, 3 road. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule:   CAR, @COL, @EDM, @CGY*

Sure, the safer pick is C Joe Pavelski, but consider 21-year-old Logan Couture—who got his feet wet in the NHL with 25 games last season—especially if you’re scrambling to pick up a player off the waiver wire that could have an impact at center this week. Though it’s only a few games into the season, Couture’s gotten a nice chunk of time on the power play, averaging four minutes on the man advantage. San Jose’s four game schedule is promising as well, getting solid but road-weary Carolina at home, before facing mediocre opposition in Colorado, Edmonton and Calgary on the road.

LW Steve Sullivan, Nashville Predators

Base rates: 0.21 G, 0.40 A, 0.61 P
Overview:   4 games. 2 home, 2 away. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule:   CGY, PIT, @DAL, @TBL*

36-year-old Steve Sullivan may be on the down side of his career, and may have been an injury question mark before last season’s perfect attendance record, but he’s on a splendid early season roll—4 G, 1 A, 5 P, +1 in 4 GP—and he has a full slate of four games facing middle-of-the-road-or-worse goal prevention squads in Week 2.

RW Steve Downie, Tampa Bay Lightning

Base rates: 0.28 G, 0.36 A, 0.64 P
Overview:   4 games. 3 home, 1 away. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule:   DAL, NYI, @ATL*, NSH

One of last season’s big surprises, especially in fantasy circles, Steve Downie’s yet again lined up with playmaker extraordinaire Martin St. Louis and super scorer Steven Stamkos, so expect both points and PIM aplenty from the rough-and-tumble winger as in 2009-10. All of that firepower is set to face a couple of the worst projected defenses in the league—it should be a good week for the Bolts’ trio.

D Tomas Kaberle

Base rates: 0.12 G, 0.47 A, 0.59 P
Overview:   3 games. 2 home, 1 away. 0 back-to-back.
Schedule:   NYI, NYR, @PHI

Don’t look now, but the Maple Leafs sit atop the Eastern Conference. While you would figure that the likes of Clarke “Mr. October” MacArthur will cool down in a hurry, proven performers like Tomas Kaberle should continue to ride the crest, maybe even exceeding expected production levels in the short run. Two home games, plus two helpings of the Islanders’ Goalie du Jour and Flyers’ Goalie du Jour, should keep Kaberle and company rolling.

D James Wisniewski, New York Islanders

Base rates: 0.10 G, 0.36 A, 0.46 P
Overview:   3 games. 1 home, 2 away. 0 back-to-back.
Schedule:   @CAR, @OTT, PHI

Coming off a two game suspension—and no, I hadn’t guessed right what “inappropriate gesture” meant before seeing the video, had you?—James Wisniewski should have plenty to prove to management, teammates and fans alike. Aside from psychoanalyzing the former Ducks defensemen, consider that Wisniewski’s is one of New York’s primary power play options on the point now, with Mark Streit out for the season—through three games, he led the Isles at 6:52 PPTOI per game.

G Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers

Base projection: .914 save percentage
Overview:         4 games. 2 home, 2 away. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule:         COL, @TOR, @BOS, NJD*

While it might not seem as much of a revelation to suggest starting Henrik Lundqvist on any fantasy week, he’s a particularly good choice for Week 2, even if you have other elite options. Not only do the Blue Shirts have a full slate of four games, but head coach John Tortorella has stated his belief in playing Lundqvist a lot to start the season, to get him in a rhythm, and because the schedule allows it. Martin Biron may sneak into either the Boston or New Jersey game, but there’s an outside chance that King Henrik could get all four games in Week 2.

RED LIGHT

Fantasy players from six teams—Detroit, Edmonton, Florida, Montreal, Philadelphia and Phoenix—draw the short straw with only two games on their schedule this week. You’ll want to think twice about starting them, unless your options are limited.

C Eric Staal, Carolina Hurricanes

Base rates: 0.44 G, 0.54 A, 0.99 P
Overview:   3 games. 0 home, 3 away. 1 back-to-back.
Schedule:   @SJS, @LAK*, @PHX

If it wasn’t bad enough that Carolina started the season seven time zones to the east in Finland, Week 2 sees them already off on an extended West Coast road trip. Already looking gassed against struggling Ottawa on Thursday night, the Hurricanes finish up Week 1 with a Sunday night affair in Vancouver, before heading down the coast for more tough games in San Jose, Los Angeles and Phoenix. Realistically even three points in those four West Coast games would have to be considered a victory—the Canes are definitely not set up for success on a team or individual level this week.

LW Henrik Zetterberg, Detroit Red Wings

Base rates: 0.39 G, 0.57 A, 0.96 P
Overview:   2 games. 2 home, 0 away. 0 back-to-back.
Schedule:   CGY, ANA

Book it—the Red Wings are going to be very good this year. In Hockey Prospectus 2010-11, VUKOTA had Detroit behind the Capitals as the second best team in the NHL. Still, two games is two games. There won’t be many opportunities for Zetterberg and friends this week, and Miikka Kiprusoff and Jonas Hiller provide above average goaltending in the opposing nets, regardless of how Calgary and Anaheim have started off the season.

RW Shane Doan, Phoenix Coyotes

Base rates: 0.28 G, 0.46 A, 0.74 P
Overview:   2 games. 2 home, 0 away. 0 back-to-back.
Schedule:   LAK, CAR

Shane Doan and the Coyotes are back in North America after starting their campaign in Prague, Czech Republic. While it’s nice to get more of a rest in the schedule than, say, Carolina is getting, Phoenix faces only two opponents this week, the promising young Kings and Hurricanes squads.

D Matt Carle, Philadelphia Flyers

Base rate: 0.09 G, 0.35 A, 0.45 P
Overview:  2 games. 2 home, 0 away. 0 back-to-back.
Schedule:  ANA, TOR

As explained in Hockey Prospectus 2010-11, Matt Carle’s 2009-10 stats line was the product of a fluky-good first six weeks of the season. Especially with plus-minus, look for him to come down to earth. As for this week’s schedule, Carle faces Jonas Hiller in net for Anaheim in one game and the surprising Maple Leafs in the other.

D Dennis Seidenberg, Boston Bruins

Base rates: 0.07 G, 0.32 A, 0.39 P
Overview:   3 games. 2 home, 1 away. 0 back-to-back.
Schedule:   @WSH, WSH, NYR

Since it would be difficult to suggest not starting Zdeno Chara on just about any week, I’ll limit my advice to keeping away from Dennis Seidenberg and the rest of the Bruins’ D, given that they face the mighty Capitals twice in addition to a pretty decent Rangers squad. While production might not drop off too much this week, plus-minus is bound to take a hit.

G Jaroslav Halak, St. Louis Blues

Base projection: .916 save percentage
Overview:         3 games. 2 home, 1 away. 0 back-to-back.
Schedule:         @CHI, CHI, PIT

While Jaroslav Halak has followed up his Cinderella postseason run with a solid start in St. Louis—2-1-0, 2.00 GAA, .909 save percentage—no goalie can feel particularly good facing Patrick Kane and the 2009-10 Stanley Cup champion Blackhawks twice and Sidney Crosby and the 2008-09 Stanley Cup champion Penguins once. Even if Halak’s save percentage remains relatively intact, GAA and W-L don’t project to be too good against this kind of firepower.

FANTASY WEEK 1 IN REVIEW

How did last week’s suggestions pan out? Not too bad. Keep in mind that these are lower profile Green Lights and higher profile Red Lights, in general.

Green Light

C Tim Connolly, Buffalo: 1 G, 2 A, 3 P, -2
LW Matt Moulson, New York Islanders: 2 G, 2 A, 4 P, -3
RW Arron Asham: Out with injury
D John Carlson, Washington: 1 G, 5 A, 6 P, +0
D Lubomir Visnovsky, Anaheim: 0 G, 2 A, 2 P, -3
G Marty Turco, Chicago: 2-1-1, 2.96 GAA, .914 save percentage
Total: 4 G, 11 A, 15 P, -8

Red Light

C Joe Thornton, San Jose: 2 G, 0 A, 2 P, -1
LW Alex Frolov, New York Rangers: 0 G, 2 A, 2 P, +0
RW Rick Nash, Columbus: 1 G, 0 A, 1 P, -3
D Derek Morris, Phoenix: 0 G, 0 A, 0 P, -1
D Joe Corvo, Carolina: 0 G, 1 A, 1 P, +0
G Tuukka Rask, Boston: 0-1-0, 4.00 GAA, .889 save percentage
Total: 3 G, 3 A, 6 P, -5

Stats through Saturday, October 16

VALUE ADD

Sometimes good centermen will remain free agents for longer than wingers, depending on the number of players required at each position in your fantasy league. Therefore, there’s a decent chance that you might still find Rangers rookie Derek Stepan available. Unless you’re strong down the middle, consider adding this top-six-forward-in-the-making to your fantasy roster.

C Derek Stepan, New York Rangers

2010-11 year-to-date: 3 GP, 3 G, 0 A, 3 P, -1

In preseason and Week 1, Derek Stepan’s looked like he could do just fine as a first or second line forwards for the Blue Shirts. If he starts centering a line of Marian Gaborik and Alex Frolov, as he did in the preseason, look out! Calder Trophy, here we come?

Timo Seppa runs the statistical hockey site Ice Hockey Metrics and is co-editor of Hockey Prospectus 2010-11. Follow Timo on Twitter at @timoseppa.

Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus. You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.