June 23, 2010
From Daigle To Datsyuk
2010 NHL Mock Entry Draft

by Corey Pronman

When considering who to draft, there is an argument in hockey circles, that you always, always, draft the best player available (BPA). However, there is an issue with that way of thinking. When teams draft they need to take everything into consideration, be it their big club, their AHL team and whose rights they hold in Europe or in junior hockey. It’s a combination of organizational depth and the best player available. Essentially, who is the best player available that makes the most sense for that organization.

The reason it’s important to think like this is because NHL teams usually don’t trade top prospects. If you built up an excess of defensemen in your system and could trade one for equal value for a wing prospect, you would always draft BPA, however the NHL does not work like that. MLB teams have learned this lesson years ago, as they used to be stuck decades ago, along with a large amount of NHL teams today in the “You must draft BPA” mentality. However they learned quickly that your farm gets uneven and you never are able to trade or acquire the players you want with the depth you build up and you always end up with major holes somewhere. Now MLB teams take into account their farm system and overall organizational depth significantly when entering a draft.

The following is a first round mock draft for the 2010 NHL Entry Draft. Note on the brief team descriptions, if I say “none” on anything, it doesn’t mean the team is perfect or a disaster, but rather that no apparent strengths or needs make them deviate from the average team.

1. Edmonton Oilers

Team Strengths: None
Team Needs: Everything
Farm Strengths: High-end wingers, depth
Farm Needs: Quality defensemen

The pick: Tyler Seguin, Center, Plymouth Whaler-OHL 

Explanation: The reason the Oilers should and will take Tyler Seguin is because that while he is the 2nd best prospect in this draft class, he makes the most sense for Edmonton. The Oilers at the moment are very deep at wing, even though Hemsky will soon become a free agent and likely depart; adding Taylor Hall into the mix will create an organizational logjam with Penner, Paajarvi-Svensson, Eberle and possibly Gagner, depending on where he eventually sticks. Some may cringe at drafting for need, especially this high in the draft but this is the most ideal position to draft for need.

If a prospect was a few years away, then you would have time to adjust, but even then there would still be a mild form of organizational logjam. However with Hall and Seguin, they’re likely to play in the NHL next year, not to mention Eberle and MPS will be vying for a spot, so what do the Oilers do? All three are legitimate future first line wingers, and last time I checked, you can only have two. You can always bump one down to the second line and have great depth, but in a salary cap world, loading up at one position and leaving a liability at another will come to bite you sooner than expected, not to mention you won’t be maximizing their value with their ice time. The only reason Pittsburgh has been able to get away with it with the likes of Crosby, Malkin and Staal is because two of those skaters are possibly the most elite players in the entire league (and they annually have cap issues/winger depth trouble). The same can be said about Hall/MPS/Eberle reaching that level with certainty, although Hall has the better chance.

The Oilers can always try trading Penner or another prospect away to open up a spot, but doing so wouldn't exactly allow them to get proper value in return. Not to mention the NHL isn’t exactly a league where top prospects are usually dealt and since Seguin is just a notch off of what Hall is, in my opinion, it makes sense to go with him for now and for the future.

2. Boston Bruins (via Toronto)

Team Strengths: Goaltending, Number one defenseman, depth
Team Needs: High-end scorers
Farm Strengths: All-around forward depth
Farm Needs: Quality defensemen

The pick: Taylor Hall, Left Wing, Windsor Spitfires-OHL

Explanation: The biggest no-brainer in the draft, the number one prospect that can play in the league next year and fits an immediate team need. Boston sends Toronto a thank you card.

3. Florida Panthers

Team Strengths: Goaltending
Team Needs: Defense, depth
Farm Strengths: Goaltending
Farm Needs: Everything except goaltending

The pick: Erik Gudbranson, Defense, Kingston-OHL

Explanation: The Panthers at three opt for a defender who they hope in a few years can be a rock on the blueline that helps stops the barrage of shots that nightly head towards the Panthers goal. Gudbranson will be 18 next year and has some rough edges still to develop, although by fast tracking Kulikov the Panthers showed they don’t mind letting young defensemen get their feet wet right away. This won’t solve all of the Panthers defensive issues, however all signs are pointing towards Florida taking Erik and it’s a step in the right direction.

4. Columbus Blue Jackets

Team Strengths: Young high-upside talent
Team Needs: Quality defensemen, depth
Farm Strengths: Elite winger prospect, defensive depth, potential
Farm Needs: Projectable NHL players, forward depth

The pick: Cam Fowler, Defense, Windsor-OHL

Explanation: While it seems the Jackets are perennially in a rebuilding phase, they do have a lot of good, young talent in the organization, be it Nash, Voracek, Brassard, Russell, Filatov, Mason or Moore. They are at least 3-4 years away from being a team to be reckoned with and Fowler, who in my opinion is the best overall defenseman in the draft, can join this core sooner than later and be a significant contributor in about three years. He projects to be the Jackets go-to guy in all situations. If his Combine showed anything, it is that he can be a 25 minute a night guy and has all the tools to do it effectively.

5. New York Islanders

Team Strengths: High-upside forwards
Team Needs: Defense, depth
Farm Strengths: All-around defensive depth
Farm Needs: Quality forwards

The pick: Brett Connolly, Left Wing, Prince George Cougars-WHL

Explanation: Connolly understandably has injury risks here however he looked good at the Combine and if the Isles personal doctors nix him, I imagine they pass on him and take Gormley. However outside of Kabanov, Connolly is the BPA here without a thousand red flags attached and fits a team that pretty much needs a little bit of everything. He's a Talented, high-upside winger who is very projectable and is possibly physically ready for the NHL now. However, he may need another year to get some strength and try and regain the season of lost development.

6. Tampa Bay Lightning

Team Strengths: Elite forwards
Team Needs: Team depth, quality defensemen
Farm Strengths: Depth
Farm Needs: High-upside prospects

The pick: Brandon Gormley, Defense, Moncton-QMJHL

Explanation: Gormley is one of the most coveted defensive prospects in the entire draft, it's hard to believe Tampa would pass up on him. Yes, they took Hedman last year. However, that whole defensive core up and down the system is such a mess that this will fill a team and organizational need, not to mention that they'll be getting the best defenseman on the board. If Yzerman likes his number one guys to play like Lidstrom, with smart defensive positioning, quick puck-moving skills and an ability to control the play, Gormley is his guy. I’ve heard Niederreiter here as well, who would be a future complement to Stamkos, and I could see him going if Gormley is off the board.

7. Carolina Hurricanes

Team Strengths: Forward depth
Team Needs: Quality defensemen
Farm Strengths: High-upside prospects
Farm Needs: Overall depth

The pick: Derek Forbort, Defense, USA Under-18-USHL

Explanation: Carolina at 7 elects to take a high-upside, toolsy defenseman in Forbort who, while he may be a few years away, is a calculated risk and can one day end up being a mainstay on the top pairing for Carolina. Even though he likely projects as a #3, he does have the skills to work his way up higher. He would propel his way to number one in the Canes farm system with Boychuk likely making the jump to the NHL next season, and he can be the mainstay focus for their player development guys. There aren’t any defenders left with substantial upside left that you would want with a 7th pick, even though I can debate Merrill, and possibly Pysyk, so this move makes the most sense for the organization. If Gormley falls here, Carolina probably jumps on him.

8. Atlanta Thrashers

Team Strengths: High-upside players
Team Needs: Overall team depth
Farm Strengths: Forward depth
Farm Needs: Quality prospect

The pick: Ryan Johansen, Center, Portland-WHL

Explanation: The Thrashers go with Johasnen here as one of the best forwards on the board, as a guy who can make the team in a few years and eventually provide a good level of offense. The team is going into a rebuilding mode, and Johansen will improve the youth of the organization with young up and coming players like Kane, Bergfors, Antropov and Little up front as they start to rebuild their core. He has the pure high-end puck distribution and stick-handling skills that’s lacking in the organization.

9. Minnesota Wild

Team Strengths: Good overall depth
Team Needs: Impact players
Farm Strengths: None
Farm Needs: Everything

The pick: Nino Niederreiter, Right Wing, Portland-WHL

Explanation: In a farm system where your top prospect is a 2nd round pick from 2008 in Scandella, who really hasn’t blown any doors down until his last season in Junior, it really speaks volumes to the situation of your drafting and development. Couple that with aging and fragile key players on the big club, and the Wild are going in the wrong direction fast. Niederreiter is physically advanced and can slide into their top six, hopefully in three to four years. Their farm isn’t in a situation to reach on high-upside risky guys like Tarasenko or Kabanov, but Niederreiter fits the bill for the Wild and immediately becomes the system’s number one prospect.

10. New York Rangers

Team Strengths: Goaltending
Team Needs: Impact players
Farm Strengths: All-around depth
Farm Needs: Quality defensemen

The pick: Vladimir Tarasenko, Left Wing, Novosibirsk-KHL

Explanation: The Rangers in years past under Sather have had a questionable player draft and development system, however more recently that has turned around, with a very deep farm even with players advancing the last few years. With that being said, they can afford to take a risk on a player like Tarasenko, who if he comes over, could be on the Rangers in two years and be aa impact scorer shortly thereafter.

11. Dallas Stars

Team Strengths: All-around forward depth
Team Needs: Defense
Farm Strengths: None
Farm Needs: Everything

The pick: Mark Pysyk, Defense, Edmonton-WHL

Explanation: With most of their top prospects advancing or being dealt, on top of not having first round picks in 2008 and 2009, the Stars farm became extremely barren recently. For a team that used to be perennial contenders, they have been going in the wrong direction and need an injection of youth to help the system. Drafting Pysyk will fill the organization hole left by Vishnevskiy when he was traded for Lehtonen, and he projects to be a top four defender for Dallas in a few years to help round out their unit.

12. Anaheim Ducks

Team Strengths: First-line forwards
Team Needs: Defensive depth
Farm Strengths:  Quality defensemen
Farm Needs: Scorers

The pick: Jeffrey Skinner, Center, Kitchener-OHL

Explanation: Skinner, who is one of the best pure goal scorers in the draft, is one of the best offensive forwards available at this spot. While Anaheim did take Holland and Palmeiri last year, Skinner would become the top scoring prospect in the system immediately upon being drafted. He’ll likely need a few years to round out and get stronger, but the Ducks are hoping to secure a bonafide top-six sniper for their future.

13. Phoenix Coyotes (via Calgary)

Team Strengths: Defensive depth
Team Needs: Impact forwards
Farm Strengths: All-around depth and high-end talent
Farm Needs: None

The pick: Mikael Granlund, Center, Helsiniki- SM-Liiga

Explanation: One of the most apparent things in the Coyotes miracle season was the lack of a game-breaking offensive talent. Granlund has the talent and skill to be able to provide that element. The Yotes have Turris and Boedker coming up, but Granlund is a talented forward to add to the mix, and although his size is an issue, Phoenix has the kind of farm to take that chance on his upside.

14. St. Louis Blues

Team Strengths: Young talent
Team Needs: Impact players
Farm Strengths: High-upside talent
Farm Needs: Forward depth

The pick: Austin Watson, Right Wing, Peterborough-OHL

Explanation: On a team loaded with young talent just waiting to breakout in Oshie, Johnson, Berglund, Perron and Backes, as well as Pietrangelo, Cole, and Rundblad, it’s hard for me to find a glaring hole in this organization when looking at where a drafted prospect would fit in three to five years. The two options St. Louis probably debates between are Watson and Burmistrov, however Watson fits the bill better. He fills a winger slot in their farm, as well as provides the tough, two-way ability that gets lost in all of the skill in the Blues organization. He's physically advanced enough and has the hockey sense to fast track as the Blues come out of their rebuilding phase and into the contention stage and can be an all-around contributor to the team.

15. Florida Panthers (via Boston)

Team Strengths: Goaltending
Team Needs: Defense, depth
Farm Strengths: Goaltending
Farm Needs: Everything except goaltending

The pick: Jon Merrill, Defense, USA Under-18-USHL

Explanation: After Merrill, the talent pool in defenders takes a steep dive, so this is the Panthers last real chance to get a quality backend guy to inject into their system. He’s also one of the best available players on the board, so it’s not like they’re going off the board. Merrill emerged this year from a steady shutdown defender into a dangerous two-way guy. He's still a ways away from going pro, but coupled with Gudbranson, it's a great start for the rebuilding phase that's taking place in Florida.

16. Ottawa Senators

Team Strengths: Defensive depth
Team Needs: Scorers
Farm Strengths: High-upside defensemen
Farm Needs: Something resembling a forward prospect

The pick: Alexander Burmistrov, Center, Barrie-OHL

Explanation: This pick will be a simple one for Ottawa. Here’s a skilled forward, whose one of the older players in the draft class, and can fill a glaring system and big club need. He’s not a reach, and if he falls to 16 it would be a mild surprise in some people’s eyes. Burmistrov likely needs two years to fill out and sharpen his game, however the Senators can at least get the ball rolling on Burmistrov to stop relying on free agents and trades to fill significant scoring forward roles.

17. Colorado Avalanche

Team Strengths: All-around forward depth
Team Needs: Defense
Farm Strengths: Defensive depth
Farm Needs: Quality forwards

The pick: Nick Bjugstad, Center, Blaine-MN-HS

Explanation: The Avs opt for a risky forward with tremendous offensive upside in Bjugstad out of a Minnesota High School program. Their system lacks a significant scoring prospect up front; however the Avs have the depth on their big club at forward to take a jump at Nick. He has the high-end package of size and skill that if he fully develops can be a dangerous player; however as with all guys who are a ways away, it’s a risk to take them. Colorado here takes a smart and calculated risk.

18. Nashville Predators

Team Strengths: Defensive Depth
Team Needs: Impact forwards
Farm Strengths: All-around depth, high-end talent
Farm Needs: None

The pick: Kirill Kabanov, Left Wing, Moncton-QMJHL

Explanation: Lots has been said about the controversial left winger as to how far he will drop. Most have him out of the first round; however I can’t see him getting past Nashville. The team is loaded with quality prospects on the farm, and they have shown the ability to be risk-takers in the draft. One may think that the Radulov experience may scare them off, but Kabanov is not going back to Russia after everything that’s happened with him there. With little to lose in farm depth and everything to gain for the future, look for Nashville to take a gamble with Kabanov.

19. Los Angeles Kings

Team Strengths: Overall team depth, high-end young players
Team Needs: Impact scorers, goaltending
Farm Strengths: High-end upside at all positions, defensive depth
Farm Needs: Forward depth

The pick:  Jaden Schwartz, Center, Tri-City-USHL

Explanation: Schwartz is a prospect who some people felt if he wasn’t small would have the ability to go in the top 15 or debatably top 10. Chances are he will fall and he’s the kind of prospect the Kings would love to move over to wing and inject into their system. Schwartz has some of the best puck-skills and smarts in the entire draft class with a level of potential that will be desirable to the Kings organization.

20. Pittsburgh Penguins

Team Strengths: Elite forwards
Team Needs: Depth at all positions except center
Farm Strengths: None
Farm Needs: Quality prospects at every position

The pick: Quinton Howden, Center, Moose Jaw Warriors-WHL

Explanation: He'll likely be moved to left wing, where he has played as well, with the centers in Pittsburgh. Howden is a safer pick for the Penguins, but it's one they have to make. Howden fills a winger spot in the organization along with Tangradi as prospects who they hope can one day help Crosby in some form or fashion. Higher-end prospects like Kuznetsov, Etem and Toffoli may be appealing; however, the Pens aren’t in a situation to take risks on a wing prospect not panning out.

21. Detroit Red Wings

Team Strengths: Great all-around defense, Elite players
Team Needs: Forward depth
Farm Strengths: None (no strengths, however it’s an average farm)
Farm Needs: Quality prospects, forward depth

The pick: Ludvig Rensfeldt, Left Wing, Brynas- Swe J20

Explanation: It may seem like a cliché to think that Detroit will go for a Swede, but Resnfeldt is a legit prospect at 21 and is of appeal to Detroit for reasons other than his nationality. He’s a talented scorer who excelled internationally all year. Hard to get a read on Detroit, as they usually have guys high up on their board that others don’t, so they trade their firsts away or trade down knowing they can get those players later. Given their track record of drafting, it's hard to argue with the strategy. However, if their first pick remains at 21, I expect them to take Ludvig.

22. Phoenix Coyotes

Team Strengths: Defensive depth
Team Needs: Impact forwards
Farm Strengths: All-around depth and high-end talent
Farm Needs: None

The pick: Emerson Etem, Right Wing, Medicine Hat-WHL

Explanation: The Coyotes have always been big on upside, and Etem has the tools to make them grab him at 22. He has a lot of development left, however the raw physical tools plus his scoring ability will be an interesting project to work on with their second first rounder.

23. Buffalo Sabres

Team Strengths: Goaltending
Team Needs: Impact players
Farm Strengths: Overall depth
Farm Needs: Quality defensemen

The pick: Jarred Tinordi, Defense, US Under-18-USHL

Explanation: Buffalo obviously opted for a big defender in Myers and it’s worked out well so far, but they’re not going for Tinordi just for his size. He can skate and plays a good, physical shutdown game. There aren’t many high upside two-way defenders left at this point, so Buffalo opts for the best available defender.

24. Atlanta Thrashers (via New Jersey)

Team Strengths: High-upside players
Team Needs: Overall team depth
Farm Strengths: Forward depth
Farm Needs: Quality prospect

The pick: Jack Campbell, Goalie, USA Under-18-USHL

Explanation: While many think Campbell will go higher, I think he slides down to 24 to Atlanta, unless a team trades up to get JC. If that happens, Atlanta likely goes with Calvin Pickard at this pick. Regardless, I believe Atlanta is leaning towards a goalie in this Draft. They don’t have anything in the pipeline and Pavelec isn’t exactly what one calls a goalie of the future. JC will hopefully be a part of the core rebuild for them.

25. Vancouver Canucks

Team Strengths: All-around depth, high-end talent
Team Needs: None
Farm Strengths: High-upside prospects
Farm Needs: Defense

The pick: Dylan McIlrath, Defense, Moose Jaw-WHL

Explanation: Some may think McIlrath will go in the top 15; however I can see him sliding down to 25 to Vancouver. With defense really running thin, Vancouver jumps on the last remaining consensus first round defender, who while he’s a project pick, will become the best defensive prospect in the system. He might be a risky pick, but he has the upside to become a big and physical shutdown guy.

26. Washington Capitals

Team Strengths: Elite scorers
Team Needs: None
Farm Strengths: High-upside defensemen
Farm Needs: Forward depth

The pick: Tyler Pitlick, Center, Minnesota State- NCAA

Explanation: The Caps go for a safer, 18 year old college forward at this spot. Already loaded up front in forwards who can score, Pitlick will be a guy who can fast-track and provide good two-way depth down the middle on the second or third line in a couple of years. Marcus Johansson, Washington's first round selection last year, was a skilled forward the Capitals used with their first line this past season. Pitlick is a bit different and will likely project as a physical, utility guy with decent skills.

27. Montreal Canadiens

Team Strengths: Goaltending
Team Needs: Quality forwards/defensemen
Farm Strengths: Forward depth
Farm Needs: Defense depth

The pick: John McFarland, Center, Sudbury-OHL

Explanation: The Habs take a gamble at 27 on McFarland as a guy who has displayed some issues this year, but has the talent to become a first-line player, something the Habs have rarely developed recently. He’s a boom or bust pick with the Habs having Leblanc, Pacioretty, Kristo and Eller to supplement the risk.

28. San Jose Sharks

Team Strengths: Great depth at all positions
Team Needs: None
Farm Strengths: None
Farm Needs: Quality prospects

The pick: Riley Sheahan, Center, Notre Dame-NCAA

Explanation: San Jose's recent promotions have left them with a pretty barren farm system. The Sharks will likely take a guy who fell down the draft list a bit this year in Riley Sheahan but has definite upside. There was the alcohol incident he went through this year, but it wasn’t anything major to be concerned about. The Sharks have great depth at center and Sheahan will add even more.

29. Anaheim Ducks (via Philadelphia)

Team Strengths: First-line forwards
Team Needs: Defensive depth
Farm Strengths:  Quality defensemen
Farm Needs: Scorers

The pick: Tyler Toffoli, Right Wing, Ottawa-OHL

Explanation: The Ducks round out the first round and take a scoring, winger prospect to inject into their system. Toffoli is one of the best players left on the board and fills out the system’s need right away, along with Skinner, and is part of a solid forward core as the Ducks build for the future. Skating makes him a risk, but his scoring ability makes him a quality offensive prospect.

30. Chicago Blackhawks

Team Strengths: Elite players and depth at every skater position
Team Needs: Goaltending
Farm Strengths: None
Farm Needs: Forward depth

The pick: Brock Nelson, Center, Warroad-MN-HS

Explanation: Chicago may be leaning towards Pickard if he’s still here, but they'll likely go with the tough center coming out of High School. A team like Chicago doesn’t have many needs right now, and their farm could always use another forward prospect with the questionable, projectable future of Kyle Beach. Good player to get at 30 who will head to North Dakota next year and can end up as a good 2nd line center in about five seasons.

For Corey's take on the Top 100 Prospects in hockey, click here.