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San Jose Sharks vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Despite an astonishing 544 points, Mr. Clutch Joe Pavelski and the San Jose Sharks are making their first appearance in the Conference Finals since the lockout season. Unfortunately for them they are slamming into Jonathan Toews and the league's youngest team, the Chicago Blackhawks, who are returning to the Conference Finals after having only one other postseason appearance since 1997.
While I have no doubt that anyone with even a passing knowledge of these two teams is in for a real treat, by popping the hood and improving our understanding of the fundamental make-up of these two teams we could further increase the excitement level of the action we're about to witness.
San Jose Offense vs. Chicago Defense
San Jose Sharks Offense: 20.6 GVT (Rank: 5th in NHL)
Chicago Blackhawks Defense: 30.2 GVT (Rank: 1st in NHL)
Chicago Blackhawks Goaltending: -20.7 GVT (Rank: 30th in NHL)
Total: San Jose Sharks +11.1 GVT
Ask anyone about the San Jose Sharks' offense, and they'll probably mention the superstar line of Dany Heatley, Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau, who ran roughshod over both NHL and Olympic competition this year. Unfortunately both Colorado and Detroit did a good job containing the potent trio and San Jose's success has actually been a consequence of their second line of Joe Pavelski, Ryan Clowe and Devin Setoguchi.
Regular Season G A PTS +/- GVT Playoffs G A PTS +/-
First Line 103 151 254 +52 53.2 8 21 29 -10
Second Line 64 80 144 +1 22.7 16 17 33 +17
Joe Pavelski! 25 goals in the regular season, and now he's 2nd with 9 in the postseason, out of a league-leading 52 shots. He has 3 power-play goals in 67 regular season games, and he already leads the postseason with 5 of San Jose's 11 man advantage goals. Add in 3 game winners, and you've got the type of step-up player that every championship team needs. Nobody saw him coming, except perhaps Gabe Desjardins, who noticed that Pavelski hit the post 10 times in the regular season, 5th most in the league.
Chicago coach Joel Quenneville will have a hard time deciding how to match-up lines against San Jose, with the Sharks being backed by shot-blasting defensemen Dan Boyle and Rob Blake: 3 goals in 65 shots, and complemented by secondary puck-moving defensemen Douglas Murray and Jason Demers: 9 assists but only 15 shots. Overall the Sharks are taking 37.4 shots per game, 2nd in the NHL, although their shooting percentage has dropped from 9.9% in the regular season to just 8.3%.
As for Chicago, they were ranked 1st in the league defensively, thanks in large part to their defensemen. Gold medalist Brent Seabrook had a defensive GVT of 7.7, and has followed that up in the postseason with 44 hits with only 4 PIM, and +5. I could go up and down Chicago's blue line reading off impressive stats like Brent Sopel's 35 blocked shots, and raising an eyebrow only when I got to Jordan Hendry (-4), but I think you get the point.
Up front the Blackhawks get solid defensive performances out of their top players, but with the exception of Tomas Kopecky and Bryan Bickell, their secondary forwards like Andrew Ladd, Troy Brouwer, John Madden, Adam Burish, and Ben Eager have combined for -12 and 22 PIM -- and only 4 points. Even the much-praised Dave Bolland and Dustin Byfuglien are a combined -4 with 30 PIM. Expect San Jose to perform at their best either at home when they get to match lines, or when the game features whistle-happy officiating.
Chicago's last line of defense is rookie Antti Niemi and his .909 save percentage, down only slightly from his rather average .912 regular season level. As uninspiring as he's been, it's been good enough to win, and may remain so. If the Blackhawks have cause for concern, I'd look at the combined 42 giveaways from Duncan Keith, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Brent Seabrook: each of them in the top 7 in that department. Fortunately they also have 6 of the top 10 in takeaways: Bolland with 18, followed by Toews, Hossa, Sharp, Kane and Versteeg all with at least 11.
Advantage: San Jose Sharks
Chicago Offense vs. San Jose Defense
Chicago Blackhawks Offense: 29.5 GVT (Rank: 3rd in NHL)
San Jose Sharks Defense: -7.1 GVT (Rank: 21st in NHL)
San Jose Sharks Goaltending: 13.9 GVT (Rank: 6th in NHL)
Total: Chicago Blackhawks +22.7 GVT
As great as Joe Pavelski has been for the San Jose Sharks, Jonathan Toews has been even better for the Chicago Blackhawks, and is an early Conn Smythe candidate should Chicago advance. He leads the NHL with 20 points, which includes his 4 power play goals. Overall Chicago has been scoring 3.33 goals per game, which is 3rd in the postseason, and their shooting percentage is 10.4%, up from 9.4% in the regular season.
Toews was actually Chicago's 4th best forward offensively in the regular season, bested by Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa and Patrick Sharp, all of whom are right behind Kane in postseason scoring. Duncan Keith has only 1 goal and 6 points thus far but make no mistake that he's the league's 2nd most potent defensemen offensively (to Washington's Mike Green). What the Blackhawks need to advance is good secondary scoring up front -- which they've been getting from Dave Bolland, Dustin Byfuglien, Kris Versteeg and Tomas Kopecky -- and support on the blue line from Brent Seabrook (8 points!) and Brian Campbell.
Going into the playoffs, one of San Jose's primary advantages was in net, where Evgeni Nabokov earned a career-high .922 save percentage in the regular season. Unfortunately not only did his save percentage drop down closer to his career average of .912, but it continued to descend to .907.
There's even more good news for the Blackhawks. With the exception of Patrick Marleau and Manny Malhotra, the Sharks don't have any forwards capable of shutting down a high-octane offense like Chicago's, so the pressure is going to be on the defensive corps, of which Marc-Edouard Vlasic is their most capable, followed by veteran Rob Blake.
You'd think that a below-average defensive team with a struggling netminder wouldn't get this far, but they've allowed only 2.54 goals against -- the 2nd lowest in the NHL. Well that may be fine against Colorado and an injury-depleted and undisciplined Detroit team, but I seriously question whether their luck will hold up in the Windy City.
Advantage: Chicago Blackhawks
San Jose and Chicago Rosters
Legend:
RPM: Relative Plus/Minus
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
TGVT: Total GVT, includes Shootout GVT
San Jose Sharks
Player P GP G A PTS +/- RPM OGVT DGVT TGVT
Patrick Marleau F 82 44 39 83 21 12.6 15.9 4.0 19.8
Dany Heatley F 82 39 43 82 14 7.5 15.0 2.4 16.7
Joe Thornton F 79 20 69 89 17 11.2 14.5 2.7 16.7
Dan Boyle D 76 15 43 58 6 -2.1 10.3 3.2 12.8
Rob Blake D 70 7 23 30 14 5.7 4.9 4.4 9.3
Joe Pavelski F 67 25 26 51 1 -5.3 7.3 1.8 9.2
Ryane Clowe F 82 19 38 57 0 -6.9 7.5 0.7 8.6
Manny Malhotra F 71 14 19 33 17 10.3 3.4 3.6 6.8
Devin Setoguchi F 70 20 16 36 0 -2.2 4.4 0.5 4.9
Jason Demers D 51 4 17 21 5 2.7 3.1 1.7 4.8
Kent Huskins D 82 3 19 22 6 -4.2 2.1 2.5 4.6
Marc-Edouard Vlasic D 64 3 13 16 21 12.2 0.1 4.7 4.5
Douglas Murray D 79 4 13 17 3 -8.8 0.0 2.5 2.5
Jed Ortmeyer F 76 8 11 19 4 -1.7 0.6 1.8 2.5
Logan Couture F 25 5 4 9 4 2.9 1.4 0.5 2.2
Torrey Mitchell F 56 2 9 11 6 2.4 -0.5 1.6 0.8
Jamie McGinn F 59 10 3 13 -3 -6.9 0.6 0.3 0.7
Scott Nichol F 79 4 15 19 -1 -8.6 -1.5 1.5 0.1
Dwight Helminen F 4 1 0 1 -1 -1.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1
Niclas Wallin D 70 0 7 7 -5 -6.6 -1.7 1.7 -0.1
Goalie GP GAA SV% GGVT DGVT TGVT
Evgeni Nabokov 69.9 2.43 0.922 25.7 -0.8 27.3
Thomas Greiss 13.0 2.69 0.912 2.0 -0.1 3.4
Chicago Blackhawks
Player P GP G A PTS +/- RPM OGVT DGVT TGVT
Duncan Keith D 82 14 55 69 21 2.9 13.7 8.6 22.3
Patrick Kane F 82 30 58 88 16 9.4 15.8 3.9 19.1
Jonathan Toews F 76 25 43 68 22 13.9 9.3 4.9 17.0
Marian Hossa F 57 24 27 51 24 16.6 10.3 4.3 15.0
Patrick Sharp F 82 25 41 66 24 14.7 9.9 5.4 14.4
Brian Campbell D 68 7 31 38 18 10.7 5.8 5.6 11.3
Brent Seabrook D 78 4 26 30 20 3.5 2.7 7.7 10.9
Kris Versteeg F 79 20 24 44 8 0.1 5.8 3.2 9.3
Troy Brouwer F 78 22 18 40 9 1.6 4.9 3.6 8.0
Kim Johnsson D 60 7 10 17 10 15.5 1.0 5.6 6.5 ** Injured **
Niklas Hjalmarsson D 77 2 15 17 9 -2.9 1.3 4.8 6.1
Andrew Ladd F 82 17 21 38 2 -6.1 3.4 2.3 5.4
Colin Fraser F 70 7 12 19 6 -1.5 1.4 3.1 4.5
Ben Eager F 60 7 9 16 9 6.2 1.4 1.8 3.2
Tomas Kopecky F 74 10 11 21 0 -3.4 1.5 1.3 2.8
John Madden F 79 10 13 23 -2 -12.6 0.2 3.1 2.8
Jordan Hendry D 43 2 6 8 5 1.6 0.7 1.9 2.7
Brent Sopel D 73 1 7 8 3 -7.9 -1.2 3.8 2.6
Dave Bolland F 39 6 10 16 5 0.3 0.4 1.9 2.0
Dustin Byfuglien F 82 17 17 34 -7 -11.0 1.4 1.4 2.0
Nick Boynton D 49 1 7 8 5 4.3 -0.1 1.8 1.7
Bryan Bickell F 16 3 1 4 4 3.2 0.5 0.6 1.1
Adam Burish F 13 1 3 4 2 1.2 0.2 0.4 0.7
Goalie GP GAA SV% GGVT DGVT TGVT
Antti Niemi 36.5 2.25 0.912 3.9 1.5 8.8
Cristobal Huet 45.5 2.50 0.895 -9.4 2.6 -7.4
San Jose Power Play vs. Chicago Penalty Kill
San Jose Sharks Power Play: 6.2 GVT (Rank: 7th in NHL)
Chicago Blackhawks Penalty Kill: 16.7 GVT (Rank: 2nd in NHL)
Total: Chicago Blackhawks +10.5 GVT
San Jose's power play converted a solid 21% of the time in the regular season, and was frequently showcased during Detroit's many trips to the penalty box in the 2nd round. Thanks to players like Marian Hossa (7 minor penalties) and Dustin Byfuglien (6, but at least he threw 37 hits), expect to see even more of Joe Pavelski, who has 5 of their 9 power play goals.
While the Sharks are certainly looking even more lethal than their 7th-place ranking would suggest, they're unfortunately up against one of the best penalty killing squads in the league with the Chicago Blackhawks. They kill 85% of penalties (88.7% in the postseason), but they've also scored 13 short-handed goals in the regular season. 3 of the 9 short-handed goals scored so far in the postseason were off the sticks of Chicago penalty killers.
Advantage: Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago Power Play vs. San Jose Penalty Kill
Chicago Blackhawks Power Play: 0.6 GVT (Rank: 12th in NHL)
San Jose Sharks Penalty Kill: 11.7 GVT (Rank: 5th in NHL)
Total: San Jose Sharks +11.1 GVT
Chicago's power play is relatively average, converting 17.7% of the time in the regular season. Jonathan Toews has 4 power play goals, but the Hawks will need more from Marian Hossa and Patrick Kane, who have only 1 between them.
San Jose's penalty killers are above average, killing 84.9% of penalties. Their focus has to be on keeping players like Scott Nichol (6 minor penalties, but 37 hits) out of the penalty box just in case Hossa and Kane come back to life.
Advantage: San Jose Sharks
Season Series
If you disregard Chicago's two 4-3 overtime victories (because there's no 4-on-4 overtime in the postseason), the season series was tied with 1 win apiece. Since Chicago's victory was 7-2 and San Jose's a nail-biting 3-2, you have to give the overall 15-11 edge to Chicago. These two teams have never met in the postseason.
Advantage: Chicago Blackhawks
Injuries and Intangibles
There are no crippling injuries to report, and if one team has suffered worse it would be Chicago, who are still hoping that Kim Johnsson might be able to come back from his concussion and relieve Jordan Hendry.
In the face-off circle the Sharks have three wizards: Manny Malhotra (61.7%), Joe Thornton (55.7%), and Joe Pavelski (53.3%). Chicago relies almost exclusively on Jonathan Toews, who takes 31.6% of the draws and wins 58.8% of them. The Blackhawks have got to find a way to neutralize this key advantage.
If Chicago has an edge in the intangibles department it would be with their youth: they're the youngest team in the league, and San Jose is the 4th oldest. Furthermore, they were here last year, whereas San Jose is trying to psychologically shake their reputation as postseason disappointments.
One more interesting observation: both teams spent their cap money in roughly equal proportions. The league's GM's might want to study that equation because it's obviously a winner.
Advantage: San Jose Sharks
Prediction
"Chicago is by far the best team in the league" - Gabe Desjardins
I wouldn't even want to begin arguing with Gabe Desjardins knowing that everything he ever says is backed up by a mountain of research. I once went to breakfast with him, and he busted out a laptop with a spreadsheet to compute the ideal gratuity (although he did mumble something about the wait staff behind being below replacement level).
There is an important caveat in the referenced article, "And yet, they aren't getting it done in the playoffs in terms of controlling the Fenwick %." Fenwick% is a way to measure a team's ability to control the play, and is measured by the percentage of shots (excluding blocked shots) the Blackhawks have taken, broken down by game situation (leading, trailing and tied). He's discovered that Nashville and Vancouver were largely controlling the play, but Chicago just managed to convert at a higher rate in order to win those games. He did a comparable study of San Jose, and found that they were controlling the play against Detroit and especially/obviously Colorado.
This may be my toughest prediction at Puck Prospectus yet, but I'll put my perfect record on the line and pick the better team: the Chicago Blackhawks. Regardless of how they might have underachieved so far, they still have the raw ability to both outscore San Jose, and shut them down. If Nabokov and the Sharks' top line can return to form it could go the other way, but adding up everything here as carefully as Gabe does a breakfast tab, we have to go with Chicago.
Prediction: Chicago Blackhawks in 7 games.
Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.
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