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The calendar has just flipped to May and in the world of hockey that means NHL playoff hockey, Memorial Cup time in Canada, and most importantly of all it means it’s time to start the two month countdown to the NHL Entry Draft. It’s around this time of year that teams are beginning to finalize their final prospect lists as they prepare for the Combine on May 24th and the Draft on June 25th.
What’s interesting about this year is the level of uncertainty that exists heading into this year’s Draft. It appears that almost everyone has a different take on not only the top player, but on how the first round will shape up come the end of June. Having lists that differentiate is completely normal as scouting is largely subjective and you’ll rarely get five people, even those of high hockey IQ’s and knowledge of the prospects, with identical top 10 prospect lists. However, it seems this year it’s been taken to a whole new level. Nobody has a clue as to who will go number one in the Draft, though we know it will likely be either Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin. Though the best defenseman of the draft is still up for debate, Erik Gudbranson seems to be dueling with the long-time consensus #1 defender Cam Fowler. However, ISS released their latest rankings and had Moncton’s Brandon Gormley over both Fowler and Gudbranson. The consensus top goalie is also up in the air, as Jack Campbell seemed like a sure bet at the beginning of the year. However, now Calvin Pickard has topped Central Scouting’s list since he's been raising eyebrows all year long with his play in the Western Hockey League.
Taking a look at several lists, you will see that discrepancy's are normal. Here are the latest Top 10’s from across the hockey community:
International Scouting Services (last updated April 30th)
1. Taylor Hall, Left Wing- OHL
2. Tyler Seguin, Center- OHL
3. Brandon Gormley, Defense- QMJHL
4. Vladimir Tarasenko, Right Wing- KHL
5. Cam Fowler, Defense- OHL
6. Nino Niederreiter, Left Wing- WHL
7. Erik Gudbranson, Defense- OHL
8. Ryan Johansen, Center- WHL
9. Jeffrey Skinner, Center- OHL
10. Derek Forbort, Defense- USHL
Central Scouting Services (last updated April 7th)
Shockingly, Central Scouting still refuses to make a joint list of North Americans and Europeans (despite the fact EVERY NHL team does so). Thus, the top 10 on this list is a tad off.
1. Tyler Seguin, Center- OHL
2. Taylor Hall, Left Wing- OHL
3. Brett Connolly, Right Wing- WHL
4. Erik Gudbranson, Defense
5. Cam Fowler, Defense- OHL
6. Brandon Gormley, Defense- QMJHL
7. Mark Pysyk, Defense- WHL
8. Emerson Etem, Right Wing –WHL
9. Derek Forbort, Defense- USHL
10. Ryan Johansen, Center- WHL
1. Mikael Granlund, Center- SM- Liiga
2. Vladimir Tarasenko, Right Wing- KHL
3. Evgeny Kuznetsov, Center- KHL
Hopefully in the near future, CSS will find a way to combine these two lists. It’s really not that complicated and it would only make NHL teams happier.
TSN- Bob McKenzie (last updated April 12th)
1. Taylor Hall, Left Wing- OHL
2. Tyler Seguin, Center- OHL
3. Cam Fowler, Defense- OHL
4. Erik Gudbranson, Defense- OHL
5. Brett Connolly, Right Wing- WHL
6. Brandon Gormley, Defense- QMJHL
7. Nino Niederreiter, Left Wing- WHL
8. Ryan Johansen, Center- WHL
9. Alex Burmistrov, Center- OHL
10. Derek Forbort, Defense- USHL
The Hockey News (last updated in their Future Watch magazine)
1. Taylor Hall, Left Wing- OHL
2. Tyler Seguin, Center- OHL
3. Cam Fowler, Defense- OHL
4. Brandon Gormley, Defense- QMJHL
5. Vladimir Tarasenko, Right Wing- KHL
6. Alex Burmistrov, Center- OHL
7. Erik Gudbranson, Defense- OHL
8. Kirill Kabanov, Left Wing- QMJHL
9. Brett Connolly, Right Wing- WHL
10. Mikael Granlund, Center- SM- Liiga
Red Line Report (last updated April 18th)
1. Taylor Hall, Left Wing- OHL
2. Tyler Seguin, Center- OHL
3. Vladimir Tarasenko, Right Wing- KHL
4. Mikael Granlund, Center- SM- Liiga
5. Cam Fowler, Defense- OHL
6. Derek Forbort, Defense- USHL
7. Nino Niederreiter, Right Wing- WHL
8. Brandon Gormley, Defense- QMJHL
9. Ryan Johansen, Center- WHL
10. Jack Campbell, Goalie- USHL
Puck Prospectus (last updated January 8th)
Because this was last updated months ago, take this list with a grain of salt.
1. Taylor Hall, Left Wing- OHL
2. Tyler Seguin, Center- OHL
3. Cam Fowler, Defense- OHL
4. Erik Gudbranson, Defense- OHL
5. Brett Connolly, Right Wing- WHL
6. Brandon Gormley, Defense- QMJHL
7. Mark Pysyk, Defense- WHL
8. Mikael Granlund, Center- SM- Liiga
9. Kirill Kabanov, Left Wing- QMJHL
10. Jaden Schwartz, Center- USHL
Heading into the 2009 Draft, we weren't completely certain about the order of where many of the projected first round prospects stood either, however we had a fairly good idea the top five would be in some combination Tavares, Hedman, Duchene, Kane and Schenn, with some certainty Ekman-Larsson would go six. Leading up to the Draft, there was the Hedman/Tavares debate and even whispers of Duchene sneaking into the top two as well as rumors of Paajarvi-Svensson landing in the top five. We should be well aware that there’s always going to be debates, but there’s usually some sort of consensus over the early portion of the first round. And this is why this year has been a surprise- there’s simply no consensus over any prospect for the 2010 Draft and we're already in the calendar month of May. If anything, any certainties we’ve had in the 2010 Draft from the second half of last year have dissolved as the 2009-10 hockey season has progressed. As of now, the only thing we can say with some level of confidence is that the 1-2 picks of this Draft will be Hall and Seguin, though I can’t tell you the order in which they'll be drafted.
Here are some examples of uncertainties revolving around certain highly ranked prospects heading into the 2010 Draft:
- Brett Connolly: Considered a consensus top five prospect, but was injured for most of the season, which raise concerns.
- Kirill Kabanov: The well-documented season from hell has derailed the once elite prospect. Defected and suspended from the KHL, his season can be categorized in one word- drama. Kabanov caused drama with his QMJHL team leading to a benching, and went to Europe to play for Belarus in the U 18’s only to be asked to go home. To say that there are several red flags around Kabanov would be an understatement.
- Cam Fowler: Does he have the top-end offensive upside to move up in the rankings in front of more complete players like Gudbranson and Gormley, or was he a product of Windsor’s offense?
- Jack Campbell: A highly skilled and physically blessed goalie, but does he have the pure puck-stopping ability of Pickard?
- Mikael Granlund: Size and an underwhelming World Juniors has made several scouts concerned about the way he'll translate to the NHL.
- Alex Burmistrov: Breaking onto the OHL scene this year after transferring from Russia. Is he a speedy wonder kid or is he over-performing?
- Mark Pysyk: Does he have the offensive upside to enter into the Top 10 argument?
The list of uncertainties goes on and on, which is why prospect lists in the hockey community differ greatly. These seven players with red flags are only near the top of the Draft too, so you can imagine how uncertain the rest of the draft looks. The one positive to this kind of uncertainty is that the Draft is likely to be very exciting, and of course will lead to a ton of debate.
New Entry Draft rankings should be up by early June. The countdown begins to June 25th.
Follow Corey on Twitter at @coreypronman.
Corey Pronman is a contributor to Puck Prospectus and runs the statistical hockey site The Hock Project. You can contact him at CPronman@fau.edu.
Corey Pronman is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
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