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New Jersey vs. Philadelphia
This is a classic Atlantic Division matchup that could end up being the best overall matchup of the first round. New Jersey, slowly becoming the San Jose Sharks of the Eastern Conference since their Stanley Cup victory in 2003, have spent the past two seasons losing out in the first round of the second season to the New York Rangers and the Carolina Hurricanes. GM Lou Lamoriello hopes that the addition of Ilya Kovalchuk will get the Devils over the hump and back onto the path of playoff success.
The Philadelphia Flyers, on the other hand, are happy to have just made the postseason after going 5-7-1 during the last few weeks. However, after defeating the Rangers on the last day of the regular season in a shootout, the Flyers are now re-energized and ready to wreak havoc on a team that they handled with ease throughout the regular season.
New Jersey Offense vs. Philadelphia Defense
New Jersey Offense GVT: -14.7 (Rank: 23rd in NHL)
Philadelphia Defense GVT: +5.9 (Rank: 12th in NHL)
Philadelphia Goaltending GVT: -6.7 (Rank: 21st in NHL)
On offense, New Jersey must get a lot of production from Zach Parise (82 Points, 19.4 GVT), Travis Zajac (67 Points, 13.2 GVT) Jamie Langenbrunner (61 Points, 11.1 GVT), Patrik Elias (78 Points, 10.6 GVT), and Ilya Kovalchuk (85 Points, 16.7 GVT). If these five players aren't firing on all cylinders, this series becomes a lot easier for Philadelphia to manage.
Chris Pronger, who faced a difficult 0.103 QualComp and averaged 25:55 minutes of ice time per game, will have his work cut out for him going against the New Jersey Devils top line of Parise, Zajac and Zubrus. While Matt Carle (6.4 DGVT) and Kimmo Timonen (4.7 DGVT) are good, this matchup will come down to how often Pronger (8.1 DGVT) can play on the ice and whether he can sustain playing optimal defense for a long time, given that he might have to play on the ice against New Jersey's second line of Kovalchuk, Elias and Langenbrunner as well.
Brian Boucher (-5.7 GVT, .899 SV%) had a poor 2009-10 regular season, but as my Puck Prospectus colleague Timo Seppa has pointed out, the blame shouldn't soley lie with the Philly netminder. The bad news for the Flyers is that their defense is pedestrian and their goaltending production is essentially replacement level. The good news for Philadelphia is that they're going up against an offense that struggled throughout the regular season, primarily due to a lack of legitimate offensive defensemen on the team.
Advantage: Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia Offense vs. New Jersey Defense
Philadelphia Offense GVT: +7.3 (Rank: 8th in NHL)
New Jersey Defense GVT: +25.3 (Rank: 2nd in NHL)
New Jersey Goaltending GVT: +5.1 (Rank: 13th in NHL)
The Flyers, who have failed to give Brian Boucher enough goal support, are still an above average offense with the likes of forwards Jeff Carter (61 Points, 13.1 GVT), Mike Richards (62 Points, 11.3 GVT) and the injury prone Simon Gagne (40 Points, 7.0 GVT) on the roster, along with defensemen Chris Pronger (55 Points, 17.9 GVT) and Kimmo Timonen (39 Points, 8.8 GVT) who can also produce on offense as well.
The New Jersey Devils defense has been stellar this year, despite Paul Martin missing much of the regular season with a left forearm injury. Their defensive trap game will be headed by Andy Greene, Paul Martin, Mike Mottau and Colin White, all of whom play a good amount of minutes per game and face above average quality of competition. Paul Martin's pair, with Martin Skoula, will see a lot of time against the Flyers first line of Simon Gagne, Mike Richards and Dan Carcillo. Even with playmaker Jeff Carter skating on the second line, the Devils can throw out other defensive pairs that can skate with Philadelphia, whether it be Colin White's pair or Andy Greene's pair.
The legendary Martin Brodeur (.916 SV%, 13.9 GVT) will seek his first Stanley Cup since the Devils finals victory in 2003. Brodeur might not be as good as he's been in the past, but he's still at least an average goaltender and he's better than Brian Boucher, though not by much anymore.
Advantage: New Jersey Devils
New Jersey Power Play vs. Philadelphia Penalty Kill
New Jersey Power Play GVT: +1.2 (Rank: 10th in NHL)
Philadelphia Penalty Kill GVT: +0.6 (Rank: 16th in NHL)
Ilya Kovlachuk and the New Jersey Devils power play unit, which ranked 11th with an 18.7% power play efficiency and put 353 shots on net on the power play, should be able to get a few goals in this series when they have the man advantage. Zach Parise, who leads New Jersey with 9 power play goals this season, should have many opportunities to give the Devils the offensive support they need when the team draws a penalty.
The Flyers penalty killing unit, led by defensemen Chris Pronger and Kimmo Timonen, finished a solid 11th with an 83.0% penalty kill percentage and surrendered 379 shots down a man. Flyers netminder Brian Boucher's save percentage falls from .911 at even strength to .845 in shorthanded situations. While the Flyers have a decent penalty killing unit, they'll need a better effort to shutdown New Jersey's very good power play group.
Advantage: New Jersey Devils
Philadelphia Power Play vs. New Jersey Penalty Kill
Philadelphia Power Play GVT: +7.3 (Rank: 5th in NHL)
New Jersey Penalty Kill GVT: +4.9 (Rank: 11th in NHL)
The Flyers, who are 5th in power play GVT, are 3rd in power play efficiency at 21.4% and have put 471 shots on net on the power play. Mike Richards and Jeff Carter, who have 13 and 11 power play goals respectively, will attempt to get the Flyers power play going against a tough New Jersey penalty killing unit.
The New Jersey Devils are ranked 13th in the NHL with an 82.8% penalty killing efficiency and have allowed 286 shots on net down a man. Colin White, Mike Mottau and the New Jersey Devils penalty killing unit will be very difficult to score on, especially with Martin Brodeur in net. However, if there's one power play unit that could take advantage of the Devils with the man advantage, it's Philadelphia.
Advantage: Philadelphia Flyers
Season Series Results
The Philadelphia Flyers dominated the New Jersey Devils in the regular season, outscoring them 20 to 13 and winning 5 of 6 games, including one overtime victory. The Devils lone victory came on December 12th in New Jersey when they won 4-1. In that third meeting of the season the Devils went up 3-0 early and Martin Broduer, to make matters worse, came away with an assist.
Advantage: Philadelphia Flyers
Injuries and Intangibles
The Devils, who had success in the postseason in previous years, have struggled the last couple of seasons. However, their 1995 Stanley Cup winning coach Jacques Lemaire is back and the formula for playoff success is present. Paul Martin, who missed out on much of the Devils-Flyers season series, will play a big part on defense for New Jersey.
To be good in the postseason, you need a hot goaltender. Surprisingly, or not so surprisingly to some, Timo Seppa's goalie index has Broduer and Boucher as equally likely to warm up in the postseason.
Advantage: New Jersey Devils
Prediction
This is a series that can go either way. The Flyers have a better offense and power play unit, while the Devils have a better defense, penalty killing unit and goaltender. Because these teams are so evenly matched, it shouldn't be a surprise that the number two seed in the Eastern Conference couldn't put the number seven seed away in the regular season series. The Flyers aren't likely to take apart New Jersey like they did during the 2009-10 campaign with Paul Martin's return to the ice, though they shouldn't have a problem keeping up with New Jersey either. The Devils have struggled the last few years in the postseason, but this year they return to being the team we knew from a few years back. However, regardless of the team that wins this series, we will see an epic first round matchup that won't fail to live up to the hype.
Prediction: New Jersey Devils in 7 games.
Andrew Rothstein is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
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