April 13, 2010
NHL Playoffs, First Round
Phoenix Coyotes vs. Detroit Red Wings

by Richard Pollock

Phoenix vs. Detroit

There is something exciting about previewing the playoffs. Gone are the Florida Panthers and the Edmonton Oilers; there are now only quality teams remaining. The funny thing is that if you mentioned the Florida Panthers, Phoenix Coyotes, and Edmonton Oilers all in the same breath this preseason, people could have made an argument for the former two being better in the standings than the latter. Well, my how things change over the course of 82 games. The Coyotes, seemingly unflappable with an ongoing ownership issue involving the organization since the summer, were easily the NHL’s biggest surprise in 2009-10.

Now, we know the Coyotes were the season’s biggest surprise, but can this Cinderella story last through round one? It may happen; in fact the Puck Prospectus odds say this series a coin flip (49 percent in Phoenix’s favor, 51 percent in Detroit's favor) but the vaunted Detroit Red Wings—on fire since the Olympic break (granted, it was not that much of a break, as a significant portion of the Red Wings were in Vancouver playing at the games) probably have something to say about that.

Legend:

RPM:  Relative Plus/Minus
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
TGVT: Total GVT

Phoenix Coyotes

Player	           P	GP	 RPM	OGVT	DGVT	SGVT	TGVT
Keith Yandle	   D	79	13.0	6.8	4.9    -0.3	11.5	
Radim Vrbata	   F	79	 5.5	6.2	2.4	0.7	 9.3	
Adrian Aucoin	   D	79	-4.4	2.4	4.2	2.2	 8.8	
Matthew Lombardi   F	75	 3.6	4.6	2.6	0.0	 7.2	
Ed Jovanovski	   D	64     -16.2	5.3	1.6	0.0	 7.0	
Scottie Upshall	   F	49	 3.0	5.2	1.5    -0.3	 6.4	
Shane Doan	   F	79	-2.3	4.4	2.3    -0.4	 6.3	
Lee Stempniak	   F	15	 6.3	4.0	1.0	0.8	 5.8	
Vernon Fiddler	   F	73	 4.1	1.4	3.6    -0.3	 4.7	
Martin Hanzal	   F	78	-2.7	0.8	3.2	0.0	 4.0	
Sami Lepisto*	   D	64	 7.3   -0.5	4.4	0.0	 3.9	
Jim Vandermeer	   D	61	-1.8	0.8	3.1	0.0	 3.9	
Zbynek Michalek	   D	69	-3.3   -0.7	4.5	0.0	 3.8	
Robert Lang	   F	64	-4.4	0.1	1.0	2.0	 3.1	
Taylor Pyatt	   F	71	 8.2	0.3	2.5    -0.3	 2.5	
Mathieu Schneider  D	 7	 4.9	0.6	0.9	0.0	 1.5	
Wojtek Wolski	   F	15	 2.8	2.2	0.8    -1.5	 1.4	
Daniel Winnik	   F	71	-1.4   -0.7	2.0	0.0	 1.3	
Derek Morris	   D	15	 4.3   -0.1	1.2	0.0	 1.1	
David Schlemko 	   D	17	-0.0	0.4	0.7	0.0	 1.1	
Anders Eriksson	   D	12	-0.7	0.3	0.3	0.0	 0.6	
Shaun Heshka	   D	 8	-0.4	0.3	0.2	0.0	 0.5	
Mikkel Boedker	   F	14	 1.7	0.1	0.3	0.0	 0.5	
Kurt Sauer	   D	 1	 0.8   -0.1	0.3	0.0	 0.2	
Petr Prucha	   F	77	-2.2   -0.8	1.2    -0.2	 0.2	
Joel Perrault	   F	 2	-1.2	0.1    -0.0	0.0	 0.1	
Lauri Korpikoski   F	68     -14.4   -2.4	1.4	1.0	-0.1	
Kevin Porter	   F	 4	 0.9   -0.2	0.1	0.0	-0.1	
Peter Mueller	   F	54	-7.1   -0.6	0.5    -0.2	-0.2	
Jeff Hoggan	   F	 4	-1.1   -0.2    -0.0	0.0	-0.3	
Paul Bissonnette   F	40	-3.0   -0.7	0.3	0.0	-0.4	
Petteri Nokelainen F	14	-2.4   -0.6	0.1	0.0	-0.6

Goalie  	P   GP 	 GAA   SV%  GGVT  DGVT  SGVT  TGVT
Ilya Bryzgalov	G   66.0 2.29 .920  21.0  0.3	3.3   24.7
Jason LaBarbera	G   14.4 2.13 .928   7.5 -0.1	0.3    7.6

Detroit Red Wings

Player		  P	GP	RPM	OGVT	DGVT	SGVT	TGVT	
Pavel Datsyuk	  F	76	18.8	11.2	4.4	1.5	17.1	
Nicklas Lidstrom  D     78	22.4	 6.6	8.1	0.0	14.8	
Henrik Zetterberg F	70	13.1	10.0	4.4    -1.2	13.2	
Brian Rafalski    D	74	23.3	 4.6	7.3	0.0	11.9	
Tomas Holmstrom	  F	64	 6.5	 5.8	2.3    -0.3	 7.8	
Valtteri Filppula F	51	-0.5	 4.6	2.0    -0.2	 6.5	
Todd Bertuzzi	  F	78	-2.3	 3.9	1.9	0.6	 6.5	
Niklas Kronwall	  D	44	 2.2	 3.2	2.6	0.5	 6.4	
Drew Miller	  F	62	 4.2	 2.0	2.0	0.3	 4.3	
Brad Stuart	  D	78     -18.6	 0.4	3.2	0.0	 3.6	
Johan Franzen	  F	23	 2.8	 2.7	1.0    -0.3	 3.5	
Darren Helm	  F	71	-8.6	-0.1	2.4	0.0	 2.3	
Patrick Eaves	  F	61	-3.5	 0.9	2.1    -0.8	 2.2	
Jonathan Ericsson D	58     -15.9	 0.9	1.0	0.0	 2.0	
Kris Draper	  F	77	-1.3	 0.4	1.8    -0.3	 2.0	
Daniel Cleary	  F	60	-6.9	 0.8	1.7    -1.0	 1.5	
Jason Williams	  F	40	-6.3	 0.3	0.3	0.4	 0.9	
Brett Lebda	  D	62	-1.0	-0.8	1.6	0.0	 0.9	
Kirk Maltby	  F	52	 0.0	-0.5	1.1	0.0	 0.6	
Andreas Lilja	  D	17	 0.0	-0.1	0.5	0.0	 0.5	
Kris Newbury	  F	 4	 1.0	 0.3	0.1	0.0	 0.4	
Doug Janik	  D	13	-3.1	 0.1   -0.0	0.0	 0.1	
Mattias Ritola	  F	 5	 0.0	-0.2	0.0	0.0	-0.1	
Derek Meech	  D	49     -11.6	 0.3   -0.5	0.0	-0.2	
Jakub Kindl	  D	 3	-2.0	-0.1   -0.2	0.0	-0.3	
Justin Abdelkader F	50     -10.5	-1.8   -0.1	0.0	-1.9	
Brad May	  F	40	-4.8	-2.1	0.1	0.0	-2.0	
Ville Leino	  F	42	-9.6	-1.7	0.1    -0.8	-2.4	

Goalie  	P   GP 	 GAA   SV%  GGVT  DGVT  SGVT  TGVT
Jimmy Howard	G   59.2 2.26 .924  21.4  0.0  -0.0   21.3
Chris Osgood	G   19.9 3.02 .888  -6.8  0.5  -1.2   -7.4

Offense

Phoenix Offense GVT: -15.4 (Rank: 25th in NHL)

Detroit Offense GVT: -1.7 (Rank: 13th in NHL)

If you look at the names, then Detroit wins this contest hands down. However, if you look at the stats this year, you will realize that the Coyotes have actually been the better team at even strength. Judging by even strength offensive GVT, Phoenix has been the 10^th-best team in the NHL, as compared to the Red Wings sitting at a surprisingly low 21^st. That said, Detroit played a majority of the season at anything but full strength. Players like Johan Franzen and Valterri Filppula were saddled with injuries, which led to low point totals and far closer games than the Wings have become accustomed to. The Coyotes, on the other hand, have done their best to avoid injuries—aside from the significant loss of Scottie Upshall.

The Desert Dogs are a team that can come at opponents with a balanced attack. This young group does not have a forward on its team whom posted a GVT above 10 this season—Radim Vrbata led the team’s forwards with that very GVT-yet they still finished 13^th in even strength goals with 151. In fact, the Coyotes’ backup netminder has the fifth-highest GVT on the team in front of the likes of Matthew Lombardi, Shane Doan, and Vernon Fiddler, who are heavily relied upon for offensive production. Overall, this team finished 25^th in the entire NHL in terms of offense, so the Coyotes are not going to outscore you. Instead, Phoenix is going to need production from the likes of Lombardi, Vrbata, Doan, and big, underrated centerman Martin Hanzal to stay in games and claw by (the Coyotes only scored 2.52 goals per game over the course of the season).

The Red Wings, on the other hand, have two loaded offensive lines. One line is centered by Pavel Datsyuk. The creative Russian center has looked dynamic since the Olympics and led Red Wings forwards with a 17.7 GVT this season. The other line is led by Henrik Zetterberg. Zetterberg brings all the attributes to the table that Datsyuk does—great two-way skills, deft passing skills and tremendous hockey sense—but plays the game with a different, yet equally-enjoyable style. Not surprisingly, the Swedish center was second of Detroit's forwards in GVT this season, posting a 13.3 total. Along with Datsyuk and Zetterberg, the Wings have veteran scoring talents on the wings like Tomas Holmstrom (8.7 GVT) and Todd Bertuzzi (6.6 GVT) who bring size and a willingness to go to the net—however, Bertuzzi needs to stay out of the box. Of course the top six is rounded out by Johan Franzen and Valterri Filppula. Compared to the top six of Phoenix—well, actually, you really cannot compare the two. Phoenix gives up a ton in the top six, and with the Wings’ sporting the likes of Darren Helm, Danny Cleary and Drew Miller in the bottom six, the Coyotes will be hard pressed to keep up with the Wings up front.

Advantage: Detroit Red Wings

Phoenix Defense GVT: 8.5 (Rank: 7th in NHL)

Detroit Defense GVT: 7.9 (Rank: 8th in NHL)

When both defenses are at full health, Detroit wins in a laugher. You are talking about Nicklas Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski, Niklas Kronwall, and Brad Stuart as arguably the best top-four defense corps in hockey. Collectively, those four have combined for a 39.9 GVT. The group has a terrific combination of skill, physicality, and size. Many pundits attempted to write off Nicklas Lidstrom as finally looking his age at the beginning of the season; however, that has proven to be an overblown perception. Combine Lidstrom’s calmness and strong positioning with Brian Rafalski’s offensive flair and the speed and physical play of Kronwall and Stuart and the Wings are loaded.

The Coyotes’ defense, while nothing to scoff at, is not necessarily in the Wings’ class. Nevertheless, this group has a strong mix and is composed of the vastly-improved Keith Yandle, veteran Adrian Aucoin (second on the team in ice-time), fellow veteran Ed Jovanovski and the defensive defenseman Zbynek Michalek (32.8 GVT total). Jovanovski and Michalek play against the other team’s top players (sitting at first and second in terms of quality of competition), while Yandle has been counted on to move the puck and create offense from the backend. Also, late addition Derek Morris came back to the club at the trade deadline after being traded from Phoenix last season. Overall, the Coyotes’ defense falls behind Detroit’s. Granted, the Coyotes did finish seventh in GVT on even strength defense as well as on total defense, while the Wings finished 11^th and 8^th in the same rankings, respectively.

Advantage: Detroit Red Wings

Goaltending

Phoenix Goaltending GVT: 19.2 (Rank: 2nd in NHL)

Detroit Goaltending GVT: 5.4 (Rank: 12th in NHL)

Ilya Bryzgalov has arguably been the NHL’s Hart Trophy favorite this season; he really has been that good. Bryzgalov and Jason LaBarbera have the Coyotes sitting at second according to the GVT even strength goaltending rankings. The problem, of course, for Phoenix is that LaBarbera’s stats combined with Bryzgalov’s do not mean as much as only one of these netminders can play between the pipes at a time. Even so, the Russian netminder posted a whopping 28.8 GVT this season, recorded a save percentage of .920 and had eight shutouts. He certainly poses the biggest threat to the Red Wings, but Detroit is not as questionable in between the pipes as the team has been in the past.

Much talk this season has been surrounding the Calder Trophy. Some people favor Tyler Myers, others say Matt Duchene is deserving of the honor, but many people say that Jimmy Howard should be the rookie of the year. Can you blame them? Howard has actually posted a better save percentage than Bryzgalov this season (.924) with a comparable GVT (27.4). Those have to be the scariest stats a Phoenix fan can read heading into this series. Many fans think the Coyotes’ chances lie with Ilya Bryzgalov, and while that is probably true, the Coyotes hardly hold any type of distinct advantage in between the pipes.

Advantage: Even

Special Teams

Phoenix Power Play GVT: -8.3 (Rank: 28th in NHL)

Detroit Power Play GVT: 6.5 (Rank: 7th in NHL)

Phoenix Penalty Kill GVT: 5.3 (Rank: 10th in NHL)

Detroit Penalty Kill GVT: 8.6 (Rank: 6th in NHL)

Phoenix had the 28^th ranked power play in the NHL this season and conversely, the Red Wings finished 7^thin the NHL in terms of the power play. The adjusted GVT power play rankings tell the same story, with the Wings gaining an even more significant edge (Detroit 4^th, Phoenix 28^th). Can you say you are surprised? The Coyotes lack top-end talent and depend on their defensive style and goaltending to win games. On the other hand, the Wings are loaded with skill, and the one thing their skilled players love is time and space to operate with the man advantage.

While the Coyotes give up a significant amount on the power play, the team’s penalty killing has been 6^th in the NHL this season, while the Red Wings ranked 10^th in the NHL on the penalty kill. Yet, the adjusted short handed GVT rankings actually place Detroit sixth in the NHL and Phoenix 10^th. Is that not the classic reversal? Again, the advantage here is minimal, but with the Wings’ edge on the power play, it provides the crew from Motown with the overall edge on special teams.

Advantage: Detroit Red Wings

Discipline, Faceoffs, and Shootouts

Phoenix Discipline GVT: -2.0 (Rank: 23rd in NHL)

Detroit Discipline GVT: 5.9 (Rank: 3rd in NHL)

Phoenix Shootout GVT: 8.0 (Rank: 1st in NHL)

Detroit Shootout GVT: -4.0 (Rank: 27th in NHL)

The Coyotes will help themselves with respect to the Red Wings’ power play, as the group ranks seventh this season in the NHL when it comes to NHL discipline. Unfortunately for Coyotes fans, the Red Wings are actually better in the discipline department—sitting second in the NHL. That said, when you take into account the fact that the Coyotes’ power play is far less effective than Detroit’s, the Coyotes’ discipline may actually end up being more beneficial.

The Wings also hold an advantage in the faceoff circle having finished eighth overall in the NHL this season; whereas the Coyotes finished 14^th overall in the NHL in the circle.

What about the shootout? Well, the Coyotes padded their record in the shootout this season—the team won a league-high 14 games in the glorified skills competition. As you well know, there are no shootouts in the playoffs, so if you take away the Wings’ six shootout wins and eliminate the eight-point difference that wouldn’t exist between the two teams under the playoff rules, the Wings gain yet another advantage.

Advantage: Detroit Red Wings

Prediction

The Coyotes have been a tremendous story this season and are listed in the Puck Prospectus odds as being given a coin-flip's chance to win this series. However, when you take into account the renewed health of the Red Wings, the loss of Scottie Upshall for the Coyotes, and the fact that the discipline, faceoffs, and special teams departments are in the Red Wings’ favor, it appears that Detroit may be a bigger than 51-percent favorite. Personally, I see the Red Wings winning this series in six games. But hey, no one saw the Coyotes even making the playoffs, so they are certainly capable of another surprise.

Prediction: Detroit Red Wings in 6 games.

Richard Pollock is Editor for the hockey website Illegal Curve.