March 24, 2009
Up and Coming
OHL and WHL Records

by Iain Fyffe

I know you're all keen to see actual evidence for the claims I've been making so far in Up and Coming. Don't worry, we will get there methodically. For now, and for the sake of completeness (since we looked at the QMJHL in the very first column), I though I'd look at the all-time single-season scoring records for the OHL and WHL.

I won't analyze the numbers to the degree I did with the Q, since lessons have already been learned and don't need repeating. We will examine a couple of interesting players, however.

First the OHL (or OHA, prior to 1980-81):

   Player            Club             Year    Age  GP  G    A    P 

1  Smith, Bobby      Ottawa           1977-78  19  61  69  123  192 
2  Gretzky, Wayne    Sault Ste. Marie 1977-78  16  64  70  112  182 
3  Gilmour, Doug     Cornwall         1982-83  19  68  70  107  177 
4  Kaszycki, Mike    Sault Ste. Marie 1975-76  19  66  51  119  170 
5  Fox, Jim          Ottawa           1979-80  19  52  65  101  166 
6  Goodwin, John     Sault Ste. Marie 1980-81  18  68  56  110  166 
7  Boudreau, Bruce   Toronto          1974-75  19  69  68   97  165 
8  Young, Tim        Ottawa           1974-75  19  70  56  107  163 
9  Brunette, Andrew  Owen Sound       1992-93  19  66  62  100  162 
10 Lee, Peter        Ottawa           1975-76  19  66  81   80  161 
11 Joly, Yvan        Ottawa           1979-80  19  67  66   93  159 
12 Dunlop, Blake     Ottawa           1972-73  19  62  60   99  159 
13 Simpson, Dave     London           1981-82  19  68  67   88  155 
14 Fogarty, Bryan    Niagara Falls    1988-89  19  60  47  108  155 
15 MacLean, Dave     Belleville       1984-85  19  63  64   90  154 
16 Godden, Ernie     Windsor          1980-81  19  68  87   66  153 
17 Nicholls, Bernie  Kingston         1980-81  19  65  63   89  152 
18 Locke, Corey      Ottawa           2002-03  18  66  63   88  151 
19 Vaive, Jeff       Ottawa           1981-82  18  68  56   95  151 
20 Cassels, Andrew   Ottawa           1987-88  18  61  48  103  151 
21 Tanti, Tony       Oshawa           1980-81  17  67  81   69  150 
22 Bullard, Mike     Brantford        1979-80  18  66  66   84  150 
23 Foligno, Mike     Sudbury          1978-79  19  68  65   85  150 
24 McCrory, Scott    Oshawa           1986-87  19  66  51   99  150 
25 Lindros, Eric     Oshawa           1990-91  17  57  71   78  149

The QMJHL list has more sub-18-year-olds on the list, six against three to be specific, and the concentration of 17-year-olds at the top of the list is much higher in the Q. While this might simply be explained by the particular players involved, it likely also reflects the lower quality of the Q. Younger players are better able to dominate the Q since it is of lesser quality. The same players playing in the OHL would not end up at the top of the all-time leaderboards.

1977-78 was the only time you'll ever see Bobby Smith outscoring Wayne Gretzky. Smith had three years on Gretzky, of course, and Wayne would certainly own the single-season OHL scoring record had he not signed to play in the WHA as an underage player. If he had played in the OHL in 1978-79, Gretzky would have likely scored in excess of 250 points, and would have had a chance to record more points than Mario Lemieux's record 282 in the QMJHL. Would we have perceived Lemieux differently if he had recorded the second-most points ever recorded in a junior season, instead of owning the record hands-down?

The OHL list is unique because it contains a defenseman. Bryan Fogarty's astounding age-19 season shows up at #14 all-time. Fogarty's story is tragic. He broke Bobby Orr's junior goal-scoring record and had all the talent in the world. Unfortunately, he was extremely insecure and could not cope with critcism. Add a substance-abuse problem and you have a player who needs a lot of help. It may seem harsh, but he should have had a Milo put on him. Who knows, maybe some teams did. However, just like Alexandre Daigle, there was always going to be at least one team that would draft him high and place great expectations on him. One team is all it takes.

The Nordiques did try to help him, providing him with alcohol rehab and access to a psychologist. It apparently was not enough, and Fogarty spent his career hopping from team to team, hoping to catch on. This illustrates the problem of using a 1st-round pick on a players with serious problems.

To be fair the 1987 Entry Draft was a fairly weak crop, but the #9 pick would have been better used on either Joe Sakic, who the Nords got at #15 because they risked losing him anywhere from picks #10 through #14, or Theo Fleury, who went #166. Of course, you could use a bit of game theory to draft Fleury lower down, knowing that other teams will avoid him due to his size. In fact, if you were drafting by the numbers you would have drafted Fleury in 1986, when he was first eligible.

Now, we move on to the WHL:

   Player             Club            Year    Age  GP  G    A    P 

1  Brown, Rob         Kamloops        1986-87  18  63  76  136  212 
2  Ronning, Cliff     New Westminster 1984-85  18  70  89  108  197 
3  Propp, Brian       Brandon         1978-79  19  71  94  100  194 
4  Ferraro, Ray       Brandon         1983-84  19  72 108   84  192 
5  Callander, Jock    Regina          1981-82  20  71  79  111  190 
6  Federko, Bernie    Saskatoon       1975-76  19  72  72  115  187 
7  Barrie, Len        Kamloops        1989-90  20  70  85  100  185 
8  Whitney, Ray       Spokane         1990-91  18  72  67  118  185 
9  Hodgson, Dan       Prince Albert   1984-85  19  64  70  112  182 
10 Propp, Brian       Brandon         1977-78  18  70  70  112  182 
11 Hodgson, Dan       Prince Albert   1983-84  18  66  62  119  181 
12 Derkatch, Dale     Regina          1982-83  17  67  84   95  179 
13 Derlago, Bill      Brandon         1976-77  18  72  96   82  178 
14 Michayluk, Dave    Regina          1981-82  19  72  62  111  173 
15 Brown, Rob         Kamloops        1985-86  17  69  58  115  173 
16 Carroll, Greg      Medicine Hat    1975-76  18  71  60  111  171 
17 Wickenheiser, Doug Regina          1979-80  18  71  89   81  170 
18 Holland, Dennis    Portland        1988-89  19  69  82   85  167 
19 Eakin, Bruce       Saskatoon       1981-82  18  66  42  125  167 
20 Murdoch, Don       Medicine Hat    1975-76  18  70  88   77  165 
21 Evason, Dean       Kamloops        1982-83  18  70  71   93  164 
22 Arnason, Chuck     Flin Flon       1970-71  19  66  79   84  163 
23 Goodall, Glen      Seattle         1989-90  19  67  76   87  163 
24 Glowa, Kelly       Brandon         1982-83  19  68  71   92  163 
25 Chipperfield, Ron  Brandon         1973-74  19  66  90   72  162

There are only two 17-year-olds on this list: Dale Derkatch and Rob Brown. Brown had a good career, but what about Derkatch?

Despite his incredible numbers, Derkatch was not drafted until the 7th round in 1983, 140th overall by Edmonton. The likely reason for this were two other stats: 5'5” and 145 pounds. Derkatch was tiny for a hockey player, and this scared teams away. Derkatch was offered a contract by the Oilers, but he decided on a career in Europe instead, and never played an NHL game.

Now, Derkatch had some fine numbers playing high-level hockey in Europe, but nothing to indicate he would have been a great scorer at the NHL level. He started off in the Italian league, and had a fine season. He then played in the Finnish elite league from 1986-87 to 1988-89, finishing 7th, 9th and 5th in points. From there he went to the German elite league, finishing 6th, 3rd and 2nd in points the next three seasons. These are good results; the Finnish elite league is roughly equivalent to the AHL, and the German league is just as bit behind. But Derkatch did not dominate these leagues, and as such likely would not have been a real offensive force in the NHL.

Don't take this to mean that small players should necessarily be discounted. Just because Derkatch did not pan out like his numbers might have suggested doesn't mean this is true of small players in general (take a look at Theo Fleury, for instance). There are enough examples of large players with good stats who have no NHL careers to speak of to realize that single examples are not enough. We need to look at players as a whole, large and small, to find the patterns. Stats-based analysis will never be perfect; there will always be some misses. The same applies to traditional scouting. The idea is not to be infallible, since that's impossible. The idea is to improve on existing methods.

This is why we will start looking at large groups of players next week. Using a database of over 500 OHL draft-eligible players, we'll begin our analysis in earnest.