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Should Team Russia and Team Canada meet in the Olympic Gold medal game this year, it could rank among the best international matchups in modern hockey history. For every nation hockey talent will naturally ebb and flow as new superstars come along and old ones retire, but at the moment both countries seem to have hit one of those sweet spots that come along once every 15 years or so. Both teams are stacked with a staggering array of elite talent, and yet the two teams contrast each other in a way closely linked to each country's national hockey identities. I honestly can't wait to see these two square off in the Gold Medal game, even though there's a strong possibility in a single game elimination tournament that an upset will deny us a potentially historic showdown between the game's two greatest hockey dynasties.
Appearances (including 2010):
Total Appearances: 5
Medals:
Gold: 0
Silver: 1
Bronze: 1
This edition of Team Russia is much better than the 2006 edition that was shut out by the Czechs in the Bronze Medal game. Since then Russia has won two straight Gold Medals at the IIHF World Championships, and they're deservedly ranked #1 by the IIHF. Barring a fluke loss, it's not a matter of whether the Russians will win a medal, it's a matter of which color.
Goalies
Legend:
GVT: Total GVT
Goalies GVT
Evgeni Nabokov 11.6
Ilya Bryzgalov 5.7
Simeon Varlamov 5.2
In the net Team Russia is turning to 35-year-old veteran Evgeni Nabokov, who finished 2nd to Finland's Antero Niittymaki in 2006 with a 1.34 goals-against average and .940 save percentage. Nabokov played every minute of the 2006 Olympics, but in the event that he should get shaken up, Ilya Bryzgalov can easily step in and play at practically the same level. Unfortunately for Team Russia, very few (if any!) medal contenders are expecting anything less than elite goaltending, and we calculate that Russia has been edged out by at least two teams between the pipes.
Defensemen
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
GVT: Total GVT
Defenseman OGVT DGVT GVT
Andrei Markov 8.0 3.7 11.7
Sergei Gonchar 4.7 2.8 7.5
Denis Grebeshkov 4.5 2.7 7.2
Fedor Tyutin 2.0 5.2 7.2
Ilja Nikulin 3.6 2.4 6.0
Konstantin Korneyev 2.0 2.0 4.0
Anton Volchenkov 0.2 3.9 4.0
Dmitri Kalinin 0.3 1.9 2.2
If Team Russia has an Achilles heel, it's defense. Offensively their defensemen are the 2nd best, behind only the unbelievably skilled Canadian blueliners, but defensively they're barely 6th. Their defensemen are by no means exposed, but with the possible exceptions of Fedor Tyutin and Anton Volchenkov, they're without the ability to shut down the endless onslaught of elite attackers which they'll be facing.
Offensively Team Russia's defense is led by the established greats 32-year-old Andrei Markov and 36-year-old Sergei Gonchar, who are their only defensemen not in their prime of 26-28. Together their front four is matched only by the Czech Republic and bested only by Team Canada, so I would expect the bench to be shortened up in the late periods.
Their squad includes 3 non-NHLers but Dmitri Kalinin has substantial recent experience on the smaller North American surfaces, so they should not suffer any significant disadvantage on Canadian ice.
Apart from the mind-bogglingly talented Canadian blueliners, overall the Russian defense is probably edged out only by Team Sweden.
Forwards
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
GVT: Total GVT
Forwards OGVT DGVT GVT
Alexander Ovechkin 26.8 4.5 31.3
Alexander Semin 18.3 4.2 22.6
Pavel Datsyuk 15.0 6.8 21.8
Evgeni Malkin 17.6 3.4 21.0
Ilya Kovalchuk 16.8 2.1 18.9
Alexei Morozov 9.2 2.4 11.5
Denis Zaripov 8.5 2.7 11.2
Alexander Radulov 5.6 1.9 7.5
Maxim Afinogenov 4.1 0.5 4.6
Sergei Fedorov 2.1 1.1 3.2
Sergei Zinovjev 1.5 0.9 2.4
Viktor Kozlov 1.9 0.4 2.3
Whenever the new version of NHL Hockey is released by EA Sports, I always play my first few games as a ridiculously dominant team, at least until I get the hang of how to score. Next year I'll definitely be playing the first few games as Team Russia, because if I can't light the red lamp with Alexander Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Pavel Datsyuk, Evgeni Malkin and Ilya Kovalchuk, then obviously someone spilled Coke on my joystick.
This is the best collection of forwards in the competition, 20 GVT higher than Canada or Sweden. Of the 10 skaters in the whole tournament with a GVT of 20 or higher, 4 of them are right here. This is partly because our calculations take ice-time into account, and since there's obviously a steep drop off from five of the best hockey players in the world to the likes of Alexei Morozov and Denis Zaripov, we can certainly expect Coach Vlyacheslav Bykov to dish out ice-time to the top two lines as generously as Momma Vollman dishes out Thanksgiving dinner to her favorite hockey analyst.
The Russians also have the huge advantage of being able to put together forward pairs already comfortable with one another, including Ovechkin and Semin of the Capitals, Afinogenov and Kovalchuk (formerly) of the Thrashers, Radulov and the gritty Zinovjec of Ufa in the KHL, and Morozov and Zaripov in Kazan. Overall the Russians have evenly split their forwards between NHL and KHL superstars, although 4 of the 6 non-NHLers, including captain Alexei Morozov, have enough extensive recent experience on North American surfaces to avoid any disadvantage in Vancouver.
Finding weaknesses in the Russian forwards is as difficult as finding Thanksgiving leftovers in the Vollman home, but it is possible if you're persistent enough. We've ranked them as the 6th best team defensively, but I'm wondering if the other teams will be able to capitalize on that if they're exhausted from chasing Ovechkin and the other young stars around the ice. Fortunately for their opponents, virtually all of their remaining forwards are at least 30.
Final Outlook
Team Russia has the best offense hands down, and that's the major reason why they're statistically the favorites to win Gold. The key to upsetting Team Russia is to take advantage of their suspect defense, which we've calculated as just barely edging out Team Finland for 5th. Given the single-elimination nature of the Olympics it isn't fair to expect that the Russians will automatically win Gold, but given their explosive offense and beatable defense, we can definitely expect some of the most exciting hockey we've seen in quite some time.
Schedule: Latvia, February 16 at 9:00 PM (PST); Slovakia, February 18 at 9:00 PM (PST); Czech Republic, February 21 at 12:00 PM (PST). Secondary round (except for byes) for all teams on February 23.
Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.
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