February 9, 2010
2010 Winter Olympics Preview
Czech Republic, 5th Overall

by Robert Vollman

It's been ten years since the Czech Republic dominated international hockey, winning gold in the 1998 Winter Olympics, followed by three straight victories in the world championships. Though they no longer enjoy the services of Dominik Hasek, the legendary goalie who made their success possible, they still won Bronze in 2006 and remain a credible medal threat in Vancouver.

Appearances (Including 2010):

Total Appearances: 5

Medals:

Gold:   1
Silver: 0
Bronze: 1

The Czech Republic is ranked 6th by the IIHF, which is their lowest ranking ever, but they're extremely fortunate to have only one higher ranked team in their division: the top-ranked Russians. Being in the same division as Slovakia (9th) and Latvia (10th) is a luxury they can't afford to squander.

Goalies

Legend:

GVT: Total GVT

Goaltender       GVT
Ondrej Pavelec  -2.3
Jakub Stepanek   4.2
Tomas Vokoun    19.4

Almost every other contender has two or three elite goalies, but the fate of the Czechs lies solely in the trusted hands of Tomas Vokoun, quite possibly the single best netminder in the tournament. Chronically overlooked by NHL award committees playing behind the NHL's worst defenses, Vokoun has very quietly delivered consistently elite goaltending for years, and is definitely the key to the Czech Republic's medal hopes.

Defensemen

Legend:

OGVT: Offensive GVT

DGVT: Defensive GVT

GVT: Total GVT

Defenseman      OGVT DGVT  GVT
Miroslav Blatak  0.8  1.2  2.0
Jan Hejda        0.7  4.8  5.5
Tomas Kaberle    4.7  2.6  7.3
Filip Kuba       2.9  4.2  7.1
Pavel Kubina     4.7  2.4  7.0
Zbynek Michalek  1.0  3.1  4.2
Roman Polak      0.0  3.2  3.2
Marek Zidlicky   5.1  3.4  8.5

While lacking a stand-out defensemen, the Czechs enjoy a front-four of solid two-way defensemen that puts them on par with any team except for the big two. To put it in perspective, their #4 defenseman Pavel Kubina trails Russia's #4 blueliner by only 0.2 GVT, and exceeds Finland's by 0.5, USA's by 1.6, Sweden's by 2.3, and Slovakia's by 3.9.

Their depth defensemen Jan Hejda, Zbynek Michalek and Roman Polak are all very responsible defensively, virtually guaranteeing that the Czechs will generally be involved in the type of low-scoring contests where the upsets they need become possible.

Forwards

Legend:

OGVT: Offensive GVT

DGVT: Defensive GVT

GVT: Total GVT

Forward           OGVT DGVT   GVT
Petr Cajanek       2.7  1.5   4.2
Roman Cervenka     7.9  1.4   9.3
Patrik Elias      10.8  4.6  15.4
Martin Erat        5.7  2.6   8.3
Tomas Fleischmann  8.2  1.6   9.8
Martin Havlat     10.8  4.2  15.0
Jaromir Jagr       6.1  1.5   7.6
David Krejci       9.1  4.9  14.0
Milan Michalek     6.4  4.4  10.7
Tomas Plekanec     8.1  2.8  10.9
Tomas Rolinek      5.1  1.3   6.4
Josef Vasicek      3.1  1.2   4.3

With plenty of players from which to choose, the Czech Republic selected a young squad where captain Patrik Elias and future Hall-of-Fame Legend Jaromir Jagr are two of only three forwards over the age of 30. The defensemen, by contrast, feature 5 older players.

Of their 12 forward slots they selected 5 players who aren't currently playing on the smaller ice surface of the NHL, and therefore may need to make a bigger adjustment when they get to Vancouver in order to prepare for the competition.

The key to Czech success up front is the health of Elias, Jagr and David Krejci who, along with Martin Havlat, represent their most potent weapons at both ends of the ice. There's no question that their top line will be as dangerous as anyone else's, but the tournament's top competitors can field two or three lines just as deadly. Secondary scoring from forwards Tomas Plekanec, Tomas Fleischmann, two-way winger Milan Michalek and the high-scoring but tiny forward Roman Cervenka will be critical to their chances of advancing to a medal game.

Final Outlook

Overall the Czech Republic has roughly the 4th best offense, the 4th best defense and the 4th best goaltending, and would roughly be on par with top NHL teams such as the Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks or Washington Capitals. Several players are going to have to step up in a big way in order for the team to edge out the United States and make a return back to the Bronze medal game.

Schedule: Slovakia, February 17 at 9:00 PM (PST); Latvia, February 19 at 4:30 PM (PST); Russia, February 21 at 12:00 PM (PST). Secondary round (except for byes) for all teams on February 23.

Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus. You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.