January 13, 2010
Illegal Curve
The Correlation between Giveaways and Points in the Standings

by Richard Pollock

Continuing the overall theme from past weeks, this week I figured we should take a look at giveaways and the correlation of these statistics with winning. Obviously, we know that giving away the puck is a bad thing and taking it away is a good thing. However, does the NHL’s basic giveaway stat correlate with winning?

Let’s take a look at the numbers from the first season after the lockout through to last season:

2005-06  Team  GvA  2006-07  Team  GvA  2007-08  Team  GvA  2008-09  Team  GvA
1	 EDM   1321 1	     EDM   1367	1	 LAK   1012 1	     EDM   1038
2	 DAL   1049 2	     BUF   1044	2	 EDM   998  2	     WSH   1011
3	 NJD   987  3	     DET   1031	3	 TOR   883  3	     MTL   965
4	 STL   968  4	     PHI   997	4	 DAL   877  4	     LAK   928
5	 ATL   934  5	     CGY   971	5	 WSH   868  5	     PHI   908
6	 WSH   930  6	     TOR   970	6	 SJS   858  6	     BUF   871
7	 DET   922  7	     WSH   968	7	 MTL   835  7	     TOR   858
8	 TOR   914  8	     ATL   943	8	 OTT   831  8	     SJS   836
9	 BUF   903  9	     MTL   941	9	 NYI   790  9	     DAL   794
10	 LAK   901  10	     LAK   906	10	 BUF   787  10	     OTT   746
11	 CGY   888  11	     NYI   861	11	 PHI   747  11	     NYI   714
12	 MTL   870  12	     DAL   857	12	 CGY   743  12	     CGY   703
13	 OTT   867  13	     NJD   854	13	 ANA   686  13	     TBL   700
14	 SJS   859  14	     OTT   853	14	 DET   678  14	     COL   698
15	 NYR   850  15	     STL   853	15	 VAN   652  15	     ANA   671
16	 NYI   824  16	     SJS   843	16	 NYR   649  16	     ATL   670
17	 PHI   772  17	     NYR   818	17	 ATL   647  17	     NSH   655
18	 MIN   739  18	     TBL   806	18	 COL   641  18	     PIT   653
19	 TBL   724  19	     FLA   790	19	 MIN   638  19	     VAN   653
20	 COL   716  20	     CAR   777	20	 TBL   590  20	     MIN   630
21	 FLA   713  21	     ANA   762	21	 NSH   584  21	     DET   609
22	 PHX   675  22	     MIN   730	22	 PIT   580  22	     FLA   602
23	 PIT   646  23	     COL   725	23	 FLA   572  23	     CAR   504
24	 NSH   633  24	     PHX   712	24	 BOS   521  24	     STL   496
25	 VAN   624  25	     NSH   657	25	 NJD   515  25	     BOS   487
26	 ANA   616  26	     BOS   655	26	 CAR   512  26	     NJD   474
27	 CAR   551  27	     PIT   632	27	 STL   468  27	     NYR   474 
28	 BOS   521  28	     VAN   589	28	 CHI   443  28	     CHI   414
29	 CBJ   515  29	     CBJ   462	29	 PHX   436  29	     PHX   404
30	 CHI   486  30	     CHI   461	30	 CBJ   413  30	     CBJ   380

Before moving onto the cumulative point totals in the standings since the lockout, let’s focus on a number of issues with the above statistics. You almost certainly have noticed that the Edmonton Oilers finished first in giveaways each season since the lockout, save one, where the team finished second in the giveaway standings. The problem with this is that it would be virtually impossible for a team to finish in the top two in giveaways for four consecutive seasons. Let’s be honest, the Oilers went all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2005-06, so it's hard to fathom that Edmonton actually led the league in turnovers.

The reverse is also true. Chicago finished 30^th, 30^th, 28^th, and 28^th in giveaways over the past four seasons. It is quite surprising to see Chicago turning over the puck so rarely considering that the Blackhawks were not exactly a powerhouse team until last season. Same for Columbus, as the Blue Jackets finished 29^th, 29^th, 30^th, and 30^th in giveaways over the past four seasons.

So what do we make of these stats? Well, giveaways are a subjective stat. But, you might be saying to yourself that shots on goal is fairly subjective as well. That is true (really, just track shots with a friend for one game and see if you get the same number), but the subjectivity level is far higher for something such as a giveaway. Take a corner scrum for example; if the puck is in the corner, a player can battle for the puck and give away possession of the puck a number of times before gaining control of it and making a pass out front. Some statisticians may consider that a “battle” in the corner and not a giveaway. Others may consider that “battle” to have been a four or five giveaway sequence.

So, then, if we look at the numbers, there should be very little correlation between giveaways and winning.

Here are the total giveaways recorded from 2005-09:

	Team	Giveaways 
1	CBJ	1770
2	CHI	1804
3	BOS	2184
4	PHX	2227
5	CAR	2344
6	PIT	2511
7	VAN	2518
8	NSH	2529
9	FLA	2677
10	ANA	2735
11	MIN	2737
12	COL	2780
13	STL	2785
14	NYR	2791
15	TBL	2820
16	NJD	2830
17	NYI	3189
18	ATL	3194
19	DET	3240
20	OTT	3297
21	CGY	3305
22	SJS	3396
23	PHI	3424
24	DAL	3577
25	BUF	3605
26	MTL	3611
27	TOR	3625
28	LAK	3747
29	WSH	3777
30	EDM	4724

The correlation we are looking at is actually negative between giveaways and winning since you would assume that the less often you turn the puck over, the better the results would be. Nonetheless, taking the above comments into account, we should not be surprised to find out that there is a 0.12 Pearson Correlation Coefficient between giveaways and points in the standings since the lockout.

However, we would be remiss if we did not point out the fact that having the puck more often would leave some teams more susceptible to more giveaways. That said, it appears that it does not seem like much of an issue here, as a 0.12 correlation is hardly significant.

All in all, it looks as if the biggest issue with the giveaway statistic is the reliability of the statistic itself. So, next time you watch a hockey telecast, be sure to take any analysis of your favorite team’s giveaway numbers with a grain of salt.

Richard Pollock is Editor for the hockey website Illegal Curve.