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For this week's player profiles we'll look at three explosive European wingers in Chicago's Marian Hossa, Minnesota's Martin Havlat and Alexander Semin of the Washington Capitals. These three are among the most talented offensive but injury-prone wingers in the world today, all of whom bounced back from disappointing 2007-08 seasons. They are enjoying different degrees of success so far this season in the NHL, but will all share similar expectations when they represent their respective nations in the upcoming Vancouver Olympics.
Marian Hossa
Despite being 30 years of age, Marian Hossa signed a 12-year contract with the Chicago Blackhawks this offseason, after back-to-back Stanley Cup appearances with Pittsburgh and Detroit. The Ottawa Senators drafted the Slovakian winger 12th overall in 1997 and he finished 2nd to Chris Drury for the Calder Trophy. Hossa is meant to fill the void left by Martin Havlat, who left for Minnesota, but missed the first part of the season with a shoulder injury.
Legend:
RPM: Relative Plus-Minus
OGVT/DGVT: Offensive and Defensive GVT
PCO/PCD: Offensive and Defensive Player Contribution
Season Age Name Team GP G A PTS RPM OGVT DGVT PCO PCD
2006-07 27 Hossa ATL 82 43 57 100 21 18.8 5.3 111.3 20.4
2007-08 28 Hossa PIT 72 29 37 66 -3 10.1 0.2 61.0 18.0
2008-09 29 Hossa DET 74 40 31 71 22 14.0 5.7 74.8 18.2
In 2008-09 Marian Hossa bounced back from a poor season at both ends of the ice, almost returning to the level of his fantastic 2006-07 campaign when he became the first Atlanta Thrasher to score 100 points.
Offense
Marian Hossa is among the best offensive players in the NHL. He consistently earns an Offensive GVT of almost 0.5 per 60 minutes, a level that has been achieved only 22 times in the past 3 seasons. The PC statistic places him at the same level; only Alexander Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, Jarome Iginla and Marian Gaborik can boast two or more recent seasons better than Hossa's.
Marian Hossa is one of the league's best forwards on the power play, consistently averaging over 6.0 points per 60 minutes. Last season the Detroit Red Wings enjoyed over 10 goals per 60 minutes when Hossa was working with the man advantage.
The only black mark on Hossa's record was 2007-08, where he managed only 2.0 even-strength points per 60 minutes, down from his usual elite level of 2.7-2.8. His even-strength goals-for average was a merely average 2.50, down about a goal for his usually dominant offensive level. At least part of his recovery last season had to be playing alongside Pavel Datsyuk with elite puck-moving defensemen like Nicklas Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski leading to an astounding QTeam of 0.48.
Legend:
ESG/ESA/PPG/PPA: Even-strength/Power Play Goals/Assists
ESGFA/PPGFA: Even-strength/Power Play Goals-For Average
QTeam: Quality of Teammates
GvA: Giveaways per 60 minutes
Draw: Penalties drawn per 60 minutes
ValO: Offensive GVT per 60 minutes
PCO: Offensive PC per 60 minutes
Season ESG ESA ESGFA PPG PPA PPGFA QTeam GvA Draw ValO PCO
2006-07 1.2 1.5 3.33 2.4 3.7 7.60 -- 2.4 -- 0.47 3.76
2007-08 1.1 0.9 2.50 1.5 3.8 7.68 0.15 1.4 1.6 0.30 2.38
2008-09 1.8 1.0 3.92 2.6 3.4 10.33 0.48 1.5 1.3 0.49 3.41
Defense
Without his brilliant offensive talent, Marian Hossa would still be usable for his defensive abilities. With the exception of a poor 2007-08 season, his solid even-strength goals-against average has resulted in very good Defensive GVT ratings, but his Defensive PC scores, which takes more factors into account, places him closer to average. Though not regularly used to kill penalties, his short-handed goals-against-average is consistently better than average. The only cause for concern statistically is his steady decline in blocked shots and takeaways, in all other regards Hossa is solid defensively.
Legend:
ESGAA/SHGAA: Even-strength/Short-handed Goals-Against Average
QComp: Quality of competition
FO%: Face-off win percentage
Tm%: Percentage of all faceoffs taken
Hit: Hits Thrown per 60 minutes
BkS: Shots Blocked per 60 minutes
TkA: Takeaways per 60 minutes
Pen: Minor penalties taken per 60 minutes
ValD: Defensive GVT per 60 minutes
PCD: Defensive PC per 60 minutes
Season ESGAA SHGAA QComp Hit BkS TkA Pen ValD PCD
2006-07 2.46 6.22 -- 3.0 0.9 3.2 -- 0.13 0.69
2007-08 3.08 5.38 0.04 2.5 0.7 2.6 0.7 0.01 0.70
2008-09 2.32 5.24 0.02 3.2 0.4 1.8 1.1 0.20 0.83
Final Thoughts
Despite being held scoreless in the last few games, Marian Hossa has 13 points in 17 games for the Chicago Blackhawks this season since coming back from shoulder surgery. Until the recent Duncan Keith signing, Hossa's contract was the most lucrative in Chicago's history, and given his recent history he could be one of the rare 30-year-olds for whom such a contract is actually justified.
Martin Havlat
In the 28-year-old Czech Martin Havlat, the Minnesota Wild picked up a versatile but injury-prone winger. Havlat was also a 1st-round selection by the Ottawa Senators, and was moved to Chicago before the 2006-07 season. When Chicago seemed uninterested in extending Havlat's contract much further, the Minnesota Wild jumped at the chance to fill the void left by Marian Gaborik.
Season Age Name Team GP G A PTS RPM OGVT DGVT PCO PCD
2006-07 25 Havlat CHI 56 25 32 57 23 9.4 5.3 51.3 21.1
2007-08 26 Havlat CHI 35 10 17 27 5 3.2 1.4 19.5 4.9
2008-09 27 Havlat CHI 81 29 48 77 18 11.1 5.6 53.1 14.5
Martin Havlat played the first full season of his career in 2008-09, and played perhaps his finest hockey in years. His slow start this season in Minnesota suggests that he may have reached his maximum potential last season as a Blackhawk.
Offense
3.3 even-strength per 60 minutes last season! In the past three seasons only Sidney Crosby in 2007-08 and two sets of linemates in 2006-07 (Vanek/Briere and Iginla/Tanguay) have done better. Coupled with an even-strength goals-for average of 4.17, you could make a case for Havlat being one of the most lethal wingers in the league at 5-on-5 last year.
Havlat hasn't been as impressive with the man advantage however, consistently scoring only 3.3 points per 60 minutes towards a power-play goals-for average right around the league average. Consequently his Offensive GVT and PC, while still impressive, don't rank him up with the league's most elite scorers.
Season ESG ESA ESGFA PPG PPA PPGFA QTeam GvA Draw ValO PCO
2006-07 1.4 1.4 2.97 1.1 2.5 5.03 -- 0.9 -- 0.36 2.57
2007-08 0.9 1.6 3.33 1.3 1.7 5.56 0.00 0.6 1.4 0.24 1.80
2008-09 1.3 2.0 4.17 1.2 2.1 6.41 0.12 0.7 0.9 0.35 2.26
Defense
Given his impressive offensive credentials, most people don't realize that Martin Havlat kept even-strength scoring below 2.00 goals per 60 minutes in 2006-07, and was consequently used against top opponents in 2007-08, albeit with mixed results. On the other hand, he isn't used to kill penalties, throws very few hits, and yet takes more penalties than he should, which are a few of key minuses that prevent Havlat from being rated very far above average by either GVT or PC.
Season ESGAA SHGAA QComp Hit BkS TkA Pen ValD PCD
2006-07 1.98 2.08 -- 0.5 0.7 1.2 -- 0.21 1.06
2007-08 2.47 4.91 0.23 0.5 0.8 1.8 1.0 0.10 0.45
2008-09 2.66 20.06 0.05 0.8 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.18 0.62
Final Thoughts
After last season's tremendous offensive accomplishments at even-strength, and having been moved from the super-talented Chicago Blackhawks the defensive-minded Minnesota Wild, we expected Martin Havlat's numbers to come back down to Earth. Unfortunately they have simply crashed, leaving Havlat with only 22 points in 34 games and raising doubts as to whether his 6-year deal worth $30 million was justified. While the season may seem like a disappointment so far, it would be quite uncharacteristic for Havlat to continue scoring at this low level so if he stays healthy it shouldn't be long before he proves what he can do to a whole new set of fans.
Alexander Semin
Our final star winger is Alexander Semin, the 25-year-old Russian drafted by the Washington Capitals 13th over-all in 2002. Due to a combination of factors, Semin didn't play his sophomore season until three years after his debut, but when healthy he's been one of their best offensive players ever since.
Season Age Name Team GP G A PTS RPM OGVT DGVT PCO PCD
2006-07 23 Semin WSH 77 38 35 73 10 11.4 2.0 69.5 -8.3
2007-08 24 Semin WSH 63 26 16 42 -16 5.2 -1.6 47.1 -7.0
2008-09 25 Semin WSH 62 34 45 79 26 16.7 5.6 92.6 7.6
Offense
Alexander Semin's even-strength numbers last season were just as incredible as Martin Havlat's, and Semin added a great game with the man advantage to his arsenal. After power-play scoring dropped from 5.2 to 4.2 in 2007-08, not only did he bounce back, but he increased it to 7.2, which is among the best in the NHL.
Offensively, Semin has only two major knocks against him, a very poor 2007-08 season where he only barely managed the 1.7 even-strength points per 60 minutes typical of a top-6 forward, and a consistently brutally high rate of giveaways recently exceeded only by Ales Hemsky and Geoff Sanderson in 2006-07.
At the moment Alexander Semin may be both injury-prone and streaky, but at his best, which is surely what we saw last season, he is as good offensively as his celebrated teammate Alexander Ovechkin.
Season ESG ESA ESGFA PPG PPA PPGFA QTeam GvA Draw ValO PCO
2006-07 1.3 0.9 3.27 2.3 2.9 7.22 -- 3.2 -- 0.37 2.94
2007-08 1.2 0.5 2.38 2.1 2.1 7.88 -0.10 4.6 1.6 0.23 2.65
2008-09 1.8 1.5 4.31 1.9 5.3 11.82 0.25 3.3 1.0 0.61 4.66
Defense
Until recently Alexander Semin was of very little use defensively to the Washington Capitals, playing below replacement level and used only when it was safe to allow opponents a few extra scoring opportunities. Last season marked a noticeable improvement, where he was successfully used in penalty killing situations from time to time. He still takes too many penalties for someone that doesn't play physically nor check tightly, but he's not the defensive liability he once was.
Season ESGAA SHGAA QComp Hit BkS TkA Pen ValD PCD
2006-07 2.84 0.00 1.4 0.7 2.7 -- 0.06 -0.35
2007-08 3.30 0.00 -0.01 1.1 0.8 2.3 1.2 -0.07 -0.39
2008-09 2.54 5.73 0.02 1.1 0.5 3.7 1.6 0.21 0.38
Final Thoughts
When he's healthy and playing at his best, Alexander Semin is one of the most lethal offensive wingers in the game. Unfortunately his health leaves him capable of playing only about 60 games a season, and too many of those are short of the elite level of which he's clearly capable.
Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.
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