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Last week in this space, we examined the correlation between shots on the opposition’s net and points in the standings. Next, it seems obvious to examine the correlation between shots on your own net and points in the standings.
Let’s take a look at these stats since the lockout:
Legend:
SA: Shots Against
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
Teams SA Teams SA Teams SA Teams SA
EDM 25.5 DET 24.6 DET 23.5 SJS 27.2
DAL 25.6 DAL 25.4 SJS 24.2 DET 27.7
SJS 26.6 SJS 26.2 NYR 25.9 CBJ 27.8
DET 26.6 TBL 27.2 DAL 26.1 LAK 28.1
TBL 27.6 ANA 27.4 COL 27.3 DAL 28.1
CGY 27.6 NYR 28.4 CBJ 27.4 OTT 28.5
OTT 28.6 TOR 28.4 STL 27.4 STL 28.5
NYR 28.8 NJD 28.4 NJD 27.5 CHI 28.6
PHI 28.9 CAR 28.5 WSH 27.5 COL 29.0
NJD 29.3 CBJ 28.6 ANA 28.0 VAN 29.2
COL 29.5 MIN 28.8 TBL 28.2 NSH 29.4
CHI 29.5 STL 28.9 BUF 28.4 NJD 29.5
ANA 29.6 COL 29.0 CGY 28.5 WSH 29.5
LAK 30.0 VAN 29.2 CHI 28.6 CAR 29.5
MIN 30.0 FLA 29.3 VAN 28.9 NYR 29.7
VAN 30.1 CHI 29.4 CAR 28.9 CGY 29.8
PHX 30.2 EDM 29.7 TOR 29.3 TOR 30.3
ATL 30.3 LAK 29.8 NSH 29.8 PIT 30.3
CAR 30.5 PHX 30.1 OTT 30.0 ANA 30.5
BUF 30.5 OTT 30.2 MIN 30.1 MIN 30.7
MTL 30.6 CGY 30.5 NYI 30.3 BOS 30.8
TOR 30.6 PIT 30.9 BOS 30.5 BUF 31.4
STL 30.6 BUF 31.0 PHX 30.7 PHX 31.6
NYI 31.1 NSH 31.2 PIT 30.8 MTL 31.7
BOS 32.1 ATL 31.5 EDM 31.4 PHI 32.5
NSH 32.5 NYI 32.6 MTL 31.6 EDM 32.5
PIT 33.2 PHI 32.6 PHI 31.8 ATL 32.7
CBJ 33.7 MTL 32.7 LAK 32.0 TBL 32.9
FLA 34.8 WSH 33.3 FLA 33.6 NYI 33.5
WSH 35.1 BOS 33.5 ATL 33.9 FLA 34.7
Above, you see the shots on goal numbers (from best to worst), beginning with the lockout up until last season. The chart is a little bit more difficult to read, so let’s put the totals together and rank them from best to worst:
Legend:
SA: Shots Against
Total 2005-2009
Teams SA Ranking
DET 102.4 1
SJS 104.2 2
DAL 105.2 3
NYR 112.8 4
NJD 114.7 5
COL 114.8 6
STL 115.4 7
ANA 115.5 8
TBL 115.9 9
CHI 116.1 10
CGY 116.4 11
OTT 117.3 12
CAR 117.4 13
VAN 117.4 14
CBJ 117.5 15
TOR 118.6 16
EDM 119.1 17
MIN 119.6 18
LAK 119.9 19
BUF 121.3 20
PHX 122.6 21
NSH 122.9 22
PIT 125.2 23
WSH 125.4 24
PHI 125.8 25
MTL 126.6 26
BOS 126.9 27
NYI 127.5 28
ATL 128.4 29
FLA 132.4 30
Now here are the total standings points teams accumulated from 2005-09:
Legend:
PSL: Points Since Lockout
Teams PSL Ranking
Detroit 464 1
San Jose 431 2
New Jersey 413 3
Buffalo 404 4
Anaheim 401 5
Dallas 399 6
Nashville 395 7
Ottawa 395 8
Calgary 391 9
Carolina 389 10
New York Rangers 386 11
Vancouver 385 12
Montreal 380 13
Minnesota 375 14
Pittsburgh 364 15
Boston 360 16
Colorado 354 17
Philadelphia 351 18
Florida 349 19
Toronto 345 20
Washington 342 21
Atlanta 339 22
Edmonton 339 23
Chicago 328 24
Tampa Bay Lightning 322 25
Columbus 319 26
New York Islanders 310 27
Phoenix 310 28
St. Louis 309 29
Los Angeles 307 30
Last week, the Pearson Correlation Coefficient between shots on goal and points in the standings was 0.48—significant but overly substantial. So, in doing last week’s piece, I wondered whether shots on goal would be more indicative of team success than shots allowed. Using the Pearson Correlation Coefficient, the correlation between shots against and total points in the standings was -0.53. Remember that fewer shots on goal is obviously the objective, so the -0.53 is actually very close to the 0.48 correlation demonstrated last week. In fact, shots against may be slightly more indicative of team success in the standings than shots on goal.
So, last week we saw that the Leafs were one of the biggest exceptions to the rule. This week, we see that the St. Louis Blues are the biggest exception. The Blues accumulated the second-fewest points in the NHL from 2005 through 2009, yet allowed the seventh least shots against in the NHL. Along with St. Louis, both Tampa Bay and Chicago stand out as teams that were in the bottom third in points accumulated, but finished in the top ten in shots allowed.
What is the moral of the story? Well, first off, it would be far too simplistic to say that just one facet of the game is directly responsible for a team’s poor performance. However, in the above three exceptions, a lack of solid goaltending most likely played a significant part in the team’s poor record since the lockout.
In 2005/06, the Blues only had one of their four netminders register a save percentage over .900. The following season, the same exact thing occurred, as only one of four netminders registered a save percentage over .900. In 2007/08, the Blues once again only had one goaltender who registered a save percentage over .900, but this time it was Manny Legace, who happened to play in 66 games and posted a save percentage .911. Of course last season, Manny Legace was cut and Chris Mason took over the job, posting a .916 save percentage. So, overall, the Blues certainly have lacked anything close to consistent netminding since the lockout. Luckily, moving forward, Chris Mason is proving to be no fluke.
What about the Lightning and the Blackhawks?
Most everyone knows that the Bolts went through an awful goaltending period from 2005-2008. Do you know just how bad this period of netminding was? The Bolts did not have a single netminder post a save percentage above .900 for those three seasons! Of course, when the Bolts finally got a good goaltender last season (Mike Smith--.916 save percentage), the team gave up the third most shots in the National Hockey League.
As for Chicago, it is somewhat odd to see the young Hawks as one of the teams on this list because their starting goalie from 2005 to this past year has been Nikolai Khabibulin, who is now in the net for Edmonton. Well, Khabibulin was not very good in his first season in Chicago—an .886 save percentage in 50 games played. Maybe the Hawks should have paid more attention to a backup named Craig Anderson and his .906 save percentage? Anyhow, Khabibulin did improve in 2006/07, posting a .902 save percentage—but his performance was nothing to write home about. In 2007/08, Khabibulin picked up his game once again and posted a save percentage of .909. Finally, last season Khabibulin (maybe motivated by pending free agency and Cristobal Huet’s arrival), posted a very good save percentage of .919 (sixth in all of the NHL), and Huet posted a save percentage of .909.
All in all, preventing shots on goal is an integral part of the game (maybe even more important than putting shots on the opposition’s net) but without strong play in other aspects of the game—like goaltending—preventing shots can only carry you so far. Just ask the Blues, Lightning, and Blackhawks.
Richard Pollock is Editor for the hockey website Illegal Curve. | 
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