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EA Sports knew how good (and flashy) Patrick Kane was. That’s why they made him cover boy of this season’s product, NHL 10. Unfortunately, Kane rewarded EA Sports with a case of extreme bad judgment in a well-publicized event this past offseason. No matter – It didn’t seem to slow down the popular video game, or the dynamic winger. Kane is off to a typically productive start this season, ranking 30th in the NHL with a 5.5 GVT through November 24th, second to Duncan Keith amongst the Blackhawks.
Already in his third National Hockey League campaign, 21 year old Patrick Kane is an interesting mix of good and bad in other ways as well. While he put up more than a point per game during three playoff rounds against tough opposition of the Flames, Canucks and Red Wings––good––he was a team-worst -9 in plus/minus rating––bad––over that run. The most telling statistic might be Even Strength Total Rating, by which the Buffalo, New York native was a team-worst -1.76 goals per 60 even strength minutes in the postseason compared to the average skater. As you would expect, Kane ranked above average offensively, at +0.55 ESOR, but defensively, his -2.31 ESDR was more than a goal per 60 minutes worse than any teammate. Since you have to believe that the poor results stem from a lack of focus as opposed to ability, Kane is still young enough to change the level of his defensive contribution, should he choose to. But while we’re waiting for that change to happen, we can marvel at his offensive skills.
One particular area of offensive success for the first overall pick in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft has been shootouts. The tandem of Patrick Kane (11 goals in 23 attempts; 47.8% career shooting) and Jonathan Toews (9 goals in 16 attempts; 56.3% career shooting) have performed especially well for the Blackhawks, though Chicago has only a 6-10 record in the shootout to show for it (since the beginning of last season). Though in a bit of a recent drought, Kane has the 15th highest career shooting percentage among active shooters with at least 10 attempts. How representative of his true ability is the 47.8% shooting percentage? Without getting into questions of sample size, and questions of recent versus overall track record, we can make an adjustment for the skill level of Kane’s opposition, comparable to what we did for goalies last week.
Speaking of which, Craig Anderson––our goaltending case study last week––stopped Kane in two of three attempts this season – better than you would expect for a lower echelon netminder (.543 actual career save percentage; .576 effective career save percentage) against a superior sniper in the shootout. Stopping Kane was one clue towards realizing that Anderson was better than we thought. This week, it’s Kane’s turn to go under the microscope. Taking a look at his shootout record and the career save percentages of the goaltenders that he faced, let’s find out if Patrick Kane is effectively a better or worse shootout performer than we might assume based on his 47.8% career success rate:
Patrick Kane - Career save percentage of opponents
Goaltender Result SA GA Save %
Dominik Hasek Goal 44 17 0.614
Dwayne Roloson Save 124 39 0.685
Dan Ellis Goal 28 12 0.571
Jose Theodore Goal 64 15 0.766
Ilya Bryzgalov Goal 68 26 0.618
Evgeni Nabokov Goal 116 47 0.595
Roberto Luongo Save 143 40 0.720
Dan Ellis Goal 28 12 0.571
Fredrik Norrena Goal 34 13 0.618
Dan Ellis Save 28 12 0.571
Manny Legace Save 80 23 0.713
Ty Conklin Missed 40 18 0.550
Tim Thomas Goal 132 34 0.742
Ty Conklin Save 40 18 0.550
Cam Ward Goal 58 24 0.586
Dwayne Roloson Save 124 39 0.685
Evgeni Nabokov Goal 116 47 0.595
Steve Mason Missed 37 13 0.649
Tomas Vokoun Save 115 37 0.678
Craig Anderson Save 46 21 0.543
Craig Anderson Goal 46 21 0.543
Craig Anderson Save 46 21 0.543
Jonathan Quick Save 31 8 0.742
Total 11 of 23 1588 557 0.628
Actual career shooting percentage 47.8%
Effective career shooting percentage 44.8%
As we discussed last week, the average success rate in shootouts since their inception in 2005-06 has been 33.0%*, corresponding to a save percentage of .670. Therefore, if a shooter faces goaltenders averaging a better than .670 save percentage, their effective shooting percentage is proportionately higher than their actual shooting percentage, and vice versa. By taking Kane’s 47.8% actual career shooting percentage times the .628 average career save percentage of his opponents and dividing by the .670 league average save percentage of all attempts from 2005-06 through 2009-10, we arrive at an effective career shooting percentage of 44.8% (through Chicago’s shootout loss to the Los Angeles Kings on Sunday). If Kane had instead faced a set of average .670 goaltenders over his career to date, he would have been expected to register a 44.8% save percentage – less than his actual 47.8%, but still an excellent success rate.
*From the beginning of the 2005-06 season through November 23, 2009, 1553 goals have been scored on 4712 shootout attempts, or 33.0%. Annual rates have fluctuated between a high of 33.7% in 2008-09 and a low of 32.5% in 2007-08. To date in 2009-10, only 124 goals have been scored out of 399 attempts, or 31.1%, but this rate should be expected to climb up towards the historical rate of 33% over the course of the season.
For comparison, we can follow the same exercise for Jonathan Toews, who boasts the 4th highest career shooting percentage among skaters with at least 10 attempts. As Kane and Toews have faced similar opponents over the course of the past two seasons, you would expect Toews’ effective shooting percentage to also fall below his actual save percentage due to below average competition. Let’s take a look at how the Blackhawks’ captain has fared over his 16 career attempts:
Jonathan Toews - Career save percentage of opponents
Goaltender Result SA GA Save %
Roberto Luongo Save 143 40 0.720
Dan Ellis Save 28 12 0.571
Fredrik Norrena Goal 34 13 0.618
Manny Legace Goal 80 23 0.713
Ty Conklin Goal 40 18 0.550
Tim Thomas Save 132 34 0.742
Ilya Bryzgalov Goal 68 26 0.618
Ty Conklin Save 40 18 0.550
Cam Ward Goal 58 24 0.586
Dwayne Roloson Missed 124 39 0.685
Evgeni Nabokov Goal 116 47 0.595
Steve Mason Save 37 13 0.649
Tomas Vokoun Goal 115 37 0.678
Craig Anderson Goal 46 21 0.543
Craig Anderson Goal 46 21 0.543
Jonathan Quick Save 31 8 0.742
Total 9 of 16 1138 394 0.632
Actual career shooting percentage 56.3%
Effective career shooting percentage 53.0%
As expected, Toews effective career shooting percentage (53.0%) comes out lower than his actual shooting percentage (56.3%), due to a similar level of opposition (.632 versus .628 save percentage) as Kane; this hardly detracts from the fact that they have been among the handful of the best shootout performers in the league. With two assets like Kane and Toews, it’s puzzling that Chicago hasn’t brought home more extra points in sudden death. Unfortunately, not only has Kane gone through a cold spell recently, but Chicago has also received exceptionally poor goaltending from Cristobal Huet (8 for 16 this season; .580 career save percentage); it’s possible that the Blackhawks may better off in the long term with Antti Niemi, in more ways than one. To improve their chances in the short term, Chicago should give the likes of Kris Versteeg (2 for 4) and Andrew Ladd (1 for 2) a chance to prove if they might be better options than Marian Hossa (36.4%) and especially Patrick Sharp (27.8%). The Blackhawks will no doubt also be looking for Patrick Kane to get back into the groove and begin producing again to the tune of that 44.8% effective shooting percentage. Chicago needs to see more of the good Patrick Kane.
Timo Seppa runs the statistical hockey site Ice Hockey Metrics.
Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.
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