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So far this season, the Maple Leafs are leading the NHL in shots per game, yet the team cannot find its way out of the basement in its division. Is this rare? How much of a correlation is there between shots on net and winning?
Let’s take a look at the stats from the lockout through the 2008-09 season:
Legend:
SOG/GM: Shots on Goal per Game
05-06: Teams in 2005-2006
06-07: Teams in 2006-2007
07-08: Teams in 2007-2008
08-09: Teams in 2008-2009
05-06 SOG/GM 06-07 SOG/GM 07-08 SOG/GM 08-09 SOG/GM
OTT 34.3 DET 33.8 DET 34.4 DET 36.2
DET 34.1 FLA 33.3 CAR 32.5 WSH 33.5
FLA 33.2 TOR 32.7 NYR 31.5 SJS 33.2
TBL 31.6 OTT 32.3 FLA 31.1 NJD 32.9
ANA 31.5 COL 31.7 TOR 31.0 CHI 32.7
CAR 31.1 NYR 31.5 WSH 31.0 CAR 32.6
PHI 31.1 ANA 31.5 PHX 30.5 NYR 32.4
ATL 30.8 CAR 31.2 BUF 30.2 CGY 32.2
BOS 30.6 LAK 31.0 OTT 30.1 TOR 31.7
BUF 30.6 NYI 30.0 NYI 29.7 BUF 30.5
SJS 30.3 ATL 29.7 SJS 29.6 BOS 30.3
NYI 30.3 MIN 29.6 NSH 29.6 ANA 30.3
CHI 30.3 MTL 29.6 MTL 29.1 MTL 30.0
MTL 30.1 TBL 29.5 CBJ 29.0 PHI 29.8
COL 30.0 BUF 29.5 NJD 28.8 FLA 29.4
NYR 29.9 VAN 29.3 PHI 28.8 OTT 29.3
WSH 29.8 BOS 28.9 TBL 28.7 LAK 29.1
EDM 29.8 PIT 28.9 LAK 28.6 PIT 29.0
NJD 29.2 PHI 28.8 COL 28.6 NSH 29.0
LAK 29.2 NJD 28.7 BOS 28.5 NYI 28.9
NSH 29.0 SJS 28.6 CGY 28.2 CBJ 28.9
VAN 28.8 PHX 28.3 CHI 28.0 DAL 28.9
DAL 28.5 DAL 28.0 PIT 27.7 COL 28.8
STL 28.5 WSH 28.0 VAN 27.5 TBL 28.5
TOR 28.3 CBJ 27.7 ANA 27.3 VAN 28.5
PHX 28.3 NSH 27.6 MIN 27.0 ATL 28.1
CGY 28.0 CGY 27.3 DAL 26.7 EDM 28.1
PIT 28.0 STL 26.9 EDM 26.3 PHX 28.1
CBJ 27.4 CHI 26.8 STL 26.1 STL 27.7
MIN 26.8 EDM 26.7 ATL 25.8 MIN 27.5
Those are the season by season totals; now here are the overall shots per game totals since the lockout:
Teams Total Shots per game since lockout
DET 138.5
CAR 127.4
FLA 127.0
OTT 126.0
NYR 125.3
TOR 123.7
WSH 122.3
SJS 121.7
BUF 120.8
ANA 120.6
NJD 119.6
COL 119.1
NYI 118.9
MTL 118.8
PHI 118.5
BOS 118.3
TBL 118.3
LAK 117.9
CHI 117.8
CGY 115.7
NSH 115.2
PHX 115.2
ATL 114.4
VAN 114.1
PIT 113.6
CBJ 113.0
DAL 112.1
EDM 110.9
MIN 110.9
STL 109.2
Now, here are the total points accumulated by each team since the lockout:
Teams Pts since Lockout Ranking
DET 464 1
SJS 431 2
NJD 413 3
BUF 404 4
ANA 401 5
DAL 399 6
NSH 395 7
OTT 395 8
CGY 391 9
CAR 389 10
NYR 386 11
VAN 385 12
MTL 380 13
MIN 375 14
PIT 364 15
BOS 360 16
COL 354 17
PHI 351 18
FLA 349 19
TOR 345 20
WSH 342 21
ATL 339 22
EDM 339 23
CHI 328 24
TBL 322 25
CBJ 319 26
NYI 310 27
PHX 310 28
STL 309 29
LAK 307 30
If you have been reading the past few articles it will come as no surprise to see Detroit at the top of yet another statistical category. Overall, however, how much of a correlation is there between shots on goal and points in the standings since the lockout?
Using the Pearson Correlation Coefficient, the findings establish that there is a 0.48 correlation between shots on goal and accumulating points in the standings since the lockout. This, while not the strongest of correlations, is still fairly significant. Overall, the above numbers suggest that a higher number of shots on goal will generally lead to a higher ranking in the standings.
Of course, these findings are not without exceptions. Surprisingly, or maybe not, the Leafs—the exception once again this season—are one of the exceptions to this rule since the lockout. Since 2005-06, the Leafs have taken the sixth most shots per game in the entire NHL, yet sit at 20th overall in terms of overall points accumulated. So, bad luck has certainly hit to an extent this season. However, four seasons is a large enough sample size to probably deduce that the Leafs do not have the high-end talent to score at a more efficient shooting rate than some other teams are scoring at.
Having said that, teams like the Leafs that lead the league in shots on goal per game should eventually find their way out of the basement. Talent, however, will dictate just how far out of the basement those teams rise.
Richard Pollock is Editor for the hockey website Illegal Curve. | 
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