November 9, 2009
Shots On Goal
Forwards: VUKOTA vs. Results

by Timo Seppa

Last week, we compared the projections of Puck Prospectus’ VUKOTA system against the actual performances of defensemen, over the first dozen or so games. With a handful of additional games under their belts, let’s take a look at how forwards have bettered, or fallen short of, VUKOTA’s expectations:

Top forwards in Points (Projected)			
				
				   VUKOTA		   ACTUAL	
Rank	Name	           Team	  Age	GP    P   P/GP   GP    P   P/GP
1	Evgeni Malkin*	   PIT	  23	80   119  1.49	 12   14   1.17
2	Alexander Ovechkin WSH	  24	82   118  1.44	 14   23   1.64
3	Sidney Crosby	   PIT	  22	74   108  1.45	 17   16   0.94
4	Ryan Getzlaf	   ANA	  24	80    91  1.14	 15   15   1.00 
5	Nicklas Backstrom  WSH	  22	78    87  1.11	 17   21   1.24
6	Ilya Kovalchuk*	   ATL	  26	79    87  1.09	  8   10   1.25
7	Zach Parise	   NJD	  25	82    84  1.03	 15   17   1.13
8	Pavel Datsyuk	   DET	  31	79    82  1.03	 13   12   0.92
9	Jarome Iginla	   CGY	  32	77    80  1.04	 15   14   0.93
10	Mike Richards	   PHI	  24	76    79  1.04	 14   15   1.07
11	Henrik Zetterberg  DET	  29	75    79  1.05	 15   13   0.87
12	Eric Staal*	   CAR	  25	81    79  0.97	 13    5   0.38
13	Joe Thornton	   SJS	  30	79    78  0.98	 18   22   1.22
14	Patrick Kane	   CHI	  21	74    78  1.04	 15   15   1.00
15	Rick Nash	   CLB	  25	82    76  0.93	 16   22   1.38
16	Jeff Carter	   PHI	  24	79    76  0.96	 14   15   1.07
17	Marc Savard	   BOS	  32	74    75  1.02	  7    7   1.00
18	Anze Kopitar	   LA	  22	82    74  0.90	 17   27   1.59
19	Jason Spezza	   OTT	  26	80    74  0.92	 12   11   0.92
20	Daniel Sedin*	   VAN	  29	78    74  0.95	  4    4   1.00

*Injured Reserve

Stats through 11/7/2009

In comparison to VUKOTA’s top 20 defensemen, you will notice that––Eric Staal excepted––none of the forwards are producing at less than half the rate expected – versus Lidstrom, Wideman, Souray, Gilbert. This makes intuitive sense, as a top forward is going to be more of a captain of his own destiny regarding his production as opposed to being a subject of his team's circumstances, as a top defenseman would be. Only 6 of VUKOTA's top 20 forwards fall more than 0.20 P/GP from their projection.

How should you view the preseason top 20 going forward?

• Neck-and-neck in last season's point race, Alexander Ovechkin has so far had the best of his countryman, Evgeni Malkin, both in terms of point per game production as well as better health. If you thought that VUKOTA was aggressive with its 1.44 P/GP forecast, Ovie has actually outdone it so far, with a spectacular 1.64 P/GP. Then again, he's already fallen short of his 82 GP projection, so the overall points may be a wash.
• NHL poster boy Sidney Crosby has "underachieved" well below 1.45 P/GP, as has Malkin. It’s a testament to a well-constructed team that the Penguins have started as hot as they have. You can expect an upswing from both superstars once the Pens have more healthy bodies.
• The biggest point producer for the struggling Ducks has not been Ryan Getzlaf-––or Teemu Selanne––but Corey Perry, whom you hopefully valued highly in your fantasy draft. The duo is clicking as expected, with Getzlaf providing the assists and Perry providing the goals. Now, if Bobby Ryan can join the party…
• Alexander Semin's cautious 67 GP projection left him off the top 20 Points list, but young Nicklas Backstrom has actually exceeded expectations at 1.24 P/GP to date.
• Tops in Goals per Games Played at 1.13 before suffering a broken foot, Ilya Kovalchuk should continue producing at a high level upon his return, with a potential $100 million contract as the carrot.
• Zach Parise turned into a superstar in 2008-09. With solid teammates surrounding him, it’s not surprising that Parise is consolidating his gains and surpassing VUKOTA’s 1.03 P/GP.
• With the Red Wings as a whole imploding around them, it’s not surprising to see the production of Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg having dropped off slightly. As prospects for the depleted Wings are unusually poor, more of the same is likely in store for the veterans.
• With the talent assembled on the Calgary Flames, Jarome Iginla has no lack of a supporting cast this season, but at 32 years old, a slight decline is not unexpected.
• The two forwards spearheading the Flyers resurgence in 2008-09 were Mike Richards and Jeff Carter. This season, whlile they have not disappointed, they are not leading their team in production. Can you guess who is? Keep reading...
• By far the biggest disappointment in VUKOTA’s top 20 forwards is Carolina’s Eric Staal. Always a streaky fantasy choice to begin with, it’s been reported that the elder Staal may have been nursing an injury in the early going. With an aging roster around him that’s about to be sold for parts, the future is gloomy for the second overall pick in 2003. That said, wait for an upsurge down the road before trying to trade Staal off yourself. On the other hand, buy low if you’ve got the roster space.
• While due criticism for a mindless incident in the offseason, Patrick Kane has shown that he has remained focused on the ice. VUKOTA saw enough in two solid seasons to be bullish; it’s been right on with the young Hawk.
• Next to Kopitar, the biggest overachiever has been Columbus captain Rick Nash. An improving cast of youngsters seems to be helping the highly talented winger reach new heights.
• Marc Savard has been limited by injury, but the return of his production to the Boston lineup was greatly needed by the stumbling Bruins and should help to right their ship to some extent. Putting stock in Bruins’ players has hurt all around the fantasy world; it looks like Boston has significantly regressed to the mean and the value of all of their players––particularly in plus/minus rating––has taken a big hit.
• The struggles of Senators Jason Spezza and Dany Healtey––hampered by the loss of talented puck movers on the blue line––were a fantasy storyline of 2008- 09, Spezza is performing as expected by VUKOTA, but not as well as their veteran captain, who we’ll cover below.
• Daniel Sedin was on track for a good start before suffering an injury. Expect him to return to established levels upon return. Twin brother Henrik Sedin hasn’t been slowed a lick, posting 1.06 P/GP versus a 0.94 P/GP projection.

Top forwards in Points Per Game (Actual)
								
				          VUKOTA              ACTUAL	
Rank	Name	           Team	  Age	GP     P    P/GP   GP	 P   P/GP
1	Alexander Ovechkin WSH	  24	82   118    1.44   14   23   1.64
2	Anze Kopitar	   LA	  22	82    74    0.90   17   27   1.59
T-3	Marian Gaborik	   NYR	  27	52    44.9  0.86   16	22   1.38 
T-3	Rick Nash	   CLB	  25	82    76    0.93   16	22   1.38
5	Brad Richards	   DAL	  29	65.5  51.0  0.78   15	20   1.33
6	Rich Peverley	   ATL	  27	62.5  38.8  0.62   13	17   1.31
7	Daniel Alfredsson  OTT	  37	76.2  62.6  0.82   14	18   1.29
8	Corey Perry	   ANA	  24	76.4  71.8  0.94   15	19   1.27
9	Ilya Kovalchuk*	   ATL	  26	79    87    1.09    8	10   1.25
10	Nicklas Backstrom  WSH	  22	78    87    1.11   17	21   1.24
T-11	Patrick Marleau	   SJS	  30	78    59.8  0.77   18	22   1.22
T-11	Joe Thornton	   SJS	  30	79    78    0.98   18	22   1.22
13	J.P. Dumont	   NSH	  31	76    57.9  0.76    9	11   1.22
14	Dustin Penner	   EDM	  27	71.9  38.2  0.53   16	19   1.19
15	Ryan Smyth	   LAK	  33	72.4  48.7  0.67   17	20   1.18
T-16	James van Riemsdyk PHI	  20	N/A   N/A   N/A	   12	14   1.17
T-16	Evgeni Malkin*	   PIT	  23	80   119    1.49   12	14   1.17
T-16	Tomas Fleischmann  WSH	  25	63.9  34.8  0.54    6	 7   1.17
T-19	Steven Stamkos	   TBL	  28	69.4  42.6  0.61   15	17   1.13
T-19	James Neal	   DAL	  22	71.2  39.0  0.55   15	17   1.13
T-19	Zach Parise	   NJD	  25	82    84    1.03   15	17   1.13
T-19	Rene Bourque	   CGY	  28	61.6  35.3  0.57   15	17   1.13
T-19	Martin St. Louis   TBL	  34	79.6  68.6  0.86   15	17   1.13

*Injured Reserve

**Rookie - No projection

Stats through 11/9/2009

• The NHL’s current point leader is Anze Kopitar of the “LA Kids.” Already in his fourth season, the 22-year-old is nearly matching Alexander Ovechkin on a P/GP basis – certainly an impressive feat. The Kings’ prime mover is currently exceeding VUKOTA’s expectations by a whopping 0.59 P/GP.
• Rangers supporters considered their new top gun Marian Gaborik underappreciated by VUKOTA, projected to play a mere 52 games due to the checkered injury history of the past three seasons. What should have been called into question instead was VUKOTA’s lowish 0.86 P/GP projection, which Gaborik is far exceeding.
• Barely missing a game in his first six NHL seasons, Brad Richards has had a rough go of it over the past two seasons. Healthy now, look for the former Stanley Cup winner to cool off a bit from the torrid 1.33 P/GP pace of the early season.
• No doubt that Rich Peverley was snatched up in your fantasy league weeks ago, as he has begun to prove that last season was not a fluke; the 27-year-old has taken a quantum leap since his trade from Nashville.
• The aforementioned Senators’ captain: it’s hard to believe that Daniel Alfredsson still has some life left in him; at 37 years old, he’s by far the oldest player in the top 20. Therefore, if someone is willing to give up quality talent for the veteran Swede, take it before father time catches up to him again.
• Out of their top six forwards, the lone Duck exceeding expectations is Corey Perry. The former London Knight has also been a worthy choice in leagues that place additional emphasis on goals: Perry ranks 8^th in G/GP at 0.73.
• Media whipping boy Patrick Marleau is making a case that 2008-09 wasn’t a flash in the pan, tying teammate––and frequent whipping boy––Joe Thornton for 11^th in per game production.
• One of the biggest early season surprises is J.P. Dumont, nearly doubling his anticipated production, and accomplishing that on a disappointing Predators’ squad. Does “sell high” ring a bell?
• More than doubling up VUKOTA is surprising Dustin Penner of the Oilers. While you can expect Penner to come down from his current lofty levels, a team best +0.93 Even Strength Total rating in 2008-09 indicates that a good portion of the breakout is real.
• The other half of the Kings’ dynamic duo is veteran free agent pickup Ryan Smyth. Clicking well with Anze Kopitar, you can’t underestimate Smyth’s potential for this season.
• The lone rookie on the list is not John Tavares, but James van Riemsdyk of the Flyers, who is out-producing Mike Richards and Jeff Carter in the early going. It’s hard to predict which rookies will make an immediate impact, so don’t kick yourself if you didn’t pick him up, especially during the draft. No doubt, he’s not available any longer.
• Tomas Fleischmann has been red hot upon his return from injury. You know it can’t last, right?
• VUKOTA projected cautiously for sophomores Steven Stamkos and James Neal, but there’s no reason to think that they can’t continue to contribute near their current high level.
• The solitary Flame in the top 20 is not Jarome Iginla and it’s certainly not Olli Jokinen. Another favorite of ESTR, Rene Bourque is for real.
• Martin St. Louis, a 34-year-old, continues to perform well—definitely better than a certain overpriced teammate of his.

As with the defensemen, it’s wise to scan the league for any owners desperate enough to dump forwards that are falling well short of expectations. Where you want to proceed with caution, though, are cases like the Boston Bruins and Detroit Red Wings, where there is clearly some overall downturn with the team, inhibiting a full bounce back to last season’s levels. On the flip side, look to sell high on the likes of small sample set overachievers such as Daniel Alfredsson, J.P. Dumont and Tomas Fleischmann.

Timo Seppa runs the statistical hockey site Ice Hockey Metrics.

Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus. You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.