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For our preseason fantasy hockey preview, we looked at which forwards and defensemen were projected for the most goals and points by Puck Prospectus’ VUKOTA projection system. Have you wondered how VUKOTA has done so far? Sure you have. So without further ado, let’s check out VUKOTA vs. Results, with the defensemen:
Top defensemen in Points (Projected)
VUKOTA ACTUAL
Rank Name Team Age GP P P/GP GP P P/GP
1 Mike Green WSH 24 76 71 0.93 14 12 0.86
2 Dion Phaneuf CGY 24 81 55 0.67 11 9 0.82
3 Mark Streit NYI 32 75 51 0.68 12 6 0.50
4 Shea Weber NAS 24 78 51 0.66 12 8 0.67
5 Andrei Markov* MTL 31 69 50 0.72 1 0 0.00
6 Nicklas Lidstrom DET 39 70 50 0.71 11 3 0.27
7 Dan Boyle SJS 33 72 47 0.66 15 13 0.87
8 Brian Rafalski DET 36 68 47 0.69 11 6 0.55
9 Zdeno Chara BOS 32 74 46 0.62 12 6 0.50
10 Dennis Wideman BOS 26 77 45 0.59 9 2 0.22
11 Sheldon Souray* EDM 33 70 45 0.64 3 0 0.00
12 Brian Campbell CHI 30 71 45 0.63 13 7 0.54
13 Scott Niedermayer ANA 36 65 45 0.69 11 8 0.73
14 Chris Pronger PHI 35 70 43 0.62 10 8 0.80
15 Jay Bouwmeester CGY 26 75 41 0.54 11 6 0.55
16 Niklas Kronwall DET 28 68 40 0.60 11 6 0.55
17 Ryan Suter NAS 24 75 40 0.53 12 7 0.58
18 Alexander Edler VAN 23 78 39 0.50 15 6 0.40
19 Joe Corvo CAR 32 69 38 0.55 12 5 0.42
20 Tom Gilbert EDM 26 76 38 0.50 13 2 0.15
* Injured Reserve
Given the limited amount of games played, most of the actual Points per Game Played (P/GP) rates are surprisingly close to projections. For instance, while Mike’s Green’s Goals per Game Played rate of 0.14 is lower than the projected 0.28, his overall P/GP is quite close to VUKOTA’s expectations. Similarly, Shea Weber, Scott Niedermayer and Ryan Suter are all just about dead-on, year-to-date. VUKOTA expected a bounceback from Dion Phaneuf; Big Dion hasn’t disappointed, posting an impressive 0.82 P/GP and leading all defensemen with 5 Goals. The Sharks’ Dan Boyle is also cruising thus far, marginally besting Green and Phaneuf with a 0.87 P/GP clip. Chris Pronger is the other name defenseman that is off to a fine start at 0.80 P/GP, justifying the Flyers’ acquisition of the former Hart Trophy winner.
As far as disappointments, Norris Trophy winner Zdeno Chara is starting to hear it for not having registered a goal so far; that said, Chara’s 6 points in 12 games are along the lines of what would be expected of him. Has age finally caught up with all-time great Nicklas Lidstrom? The veteran Swede’s production is suffering along with the rest of the Red Wings offense, with a disappointing 0.27 P/GP. The fortunes of Dennis Wideman have similarly followed the fortunes of his team; missing some time to injury, Wideman has only two points in 9 games, after arguably being the best defenseman on the Bruins last season. Underachieving Tom Gilbert of the Oilers––with less than a third of VUKOTA’s expected production––has been rumored to be on the trading block. Andrei Markov and Sheldon Souray had two of the lower projections for games played; while their injuries could not have been expected, VUKOTA ended up hedging correctly with the health of the two veterans.
Top defensemen in Points (Actual)
VUKOTA ACTUAL
Rank Name Team Age GP P P/GP GP P P/GP
1 Tomas Kaberle TOR 31 60.0 31.2 0.52 11 12 1.09
2 James Wisniewski ANA 25 58.0 24.9 0.43 8 8 1.00
3 Alex Goligoski PIT 24 50.5 21.9 0.43 13 12 0.92
4 Matt Carle PHI 25 63.4 22.8 0.36 10 9 0.90
5 Sergei Gonchar* PIT 35 52.3 34.5 0.66 9 8 0.89
6 Dan Boyle SJS 33 72.0 47.0 0.66 15 13 0.87
7 Mike Green WSH 24 76.0 71.0 0.93 14 12 0.86
8 Drew Doughty LAK 20 77.8 30.1 0.39 14 12 0.86
9 Ed Jovanovski PHX 33 70.1 34.8 0.50 12 10 0.83
10 Dion Phaneuf CGY 24 81.0 55.0 0.67 11 9 0.82
11 Michael Del Zotto** NYR N/A N/A N/A N/A 15 12 0.80
12 Chris Pronger PHI 35 70.0 43.0 0.62 10 8 0.80
13 Christian Ehrhoff VAN 27 71.0 32.0 0.45 14 11 0.79
14 Tobias Enstrom ATL 25 75.2 31.6 0.42 9 7 0.78
15 Jonathan Ericsson DET 25 42.3 14.5 0.34 11 8 0.73
16 Scott Niedermayer ANA 36 65.0 45.0 0.69 11 8 0.73
17 Joni Pitkanen CAR 26 68.6 32.3 0.47 7 5 0.71
18 John-Michael Liles COL 29 70.4 35.2 0.50 7 5 0.71
19 Lubomir Visnovsky EDM 33 59.0 30.5 0.52 12 8 0.67
20 Shea Weber NAS 24 78.0 51.0 0.66 12 8 0.67
* Injured Reserve
** Rookie - No projection
Six players from the top 20 VUKOTA points projections are currently among the top 20 in Points per Game Played this season: Dan Boyle, Mike Green, Dion Phaneuf, Chris Pronger, Scott Niedermayer and Shea Weber. Expect a few more––like Streit, Campbell, Rafalski, Suter and yes, Lidstrom––to be joining the leaderboard once things even out over more games played.
Currently at the head of the class is Tomas Kaberle of the woeful Maple Leafs, who GM Brian Burke was looking to trade last season. Ironically, Burke really should look to trade the veteran Czech, as Toronto––definitely not a win-now team––needs to rebuild for the future. While you’ll take a hit on plus/minus if you deal Kaberle from the roster now, his value across the board could jump if he moves to a better situation later in the season. Former Blackhawk James Wisniewski has settled in nicely with Anaheim; the Ducks need to look elsewhere regarding their shortcomings. Sophomores Alex Goligoski and Drew Doughty have exploded onto the scene, and should be All Stars for years to come; as both were quality contributors last season as well as respected prospects, you can believe in this small sample. 25 year old Jonathan Ericsson likewise shows promise to provide a future replacement for Detroit, as Lidstrom and Rafalski begin to decline. Rookie Michael Del Zotto––an early Calder Trophy favorite––is making the most of his plentiful time on the power play, but expect him to come back to earth a bit. 25 year old Matt Carle may finally be establishing himself; it’s he, and not Kimmo Timonen, who joins Chris Pronger as one of the Flyers’ most productive defensemen, year to date. Sergei Gonchar was off to a fine start, but an injury is again going to sideline him for a significant portion of the season; as with last year, his availability and productivity in the playoffs is what will really matter, at least outside of fantasy circles. Ed Jovanovski is one of many surprises in Phoenix, but look for him to cool off, closer to the VUKOTA projection.
The defensemen in both of the lists above––the projected and actual leaders in scoring––are all quality players that should be expected to perform well over the course of the 2009-10 regular season. Any of them that still happen to be free agents in your fantasy league should definitely be on your radar screen for a possible pickup. If you’ve got the roster slots, hang onto the likes of Markov, Souray and especially Gonchar, until they return from injury. Finally, consider trading away overachievers from the actual list if you can get significant returns, while trading for underachievers from the projected list.
Timo Seppa runs the statistical hockey site Ice Hockey Metrics.
Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.
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