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(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 264 (T-4th on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 268 (3rd on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 239 (18th on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 238 (T-4th on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 99 (T-8th in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 103 (5th in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: + 25 (9th Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: + 32 (5th Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 3.28 (4th on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 2.88 (T-6th on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: 0.40 (5th Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Eastern Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 80.0 %
Eastern Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 50.4 %
Eastern Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 29.9 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 16.9 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 9.5 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
“A potential playoff team, with two superstars”, is how you might have described the 2008-09 Pittsburgh Penguins before the trading deadline. After the trading deadline? They were a wrecking crew, and they kept it going all the way to the Stanley Cup. At their most mediocre state, the Pens stood at a lackluster 27-25-5 on February 14th, barely a .500 team under Michel Therrien and five points out of a playoff berth. Over the next 25 games under Dan Bylsma (and with the return of Sergei Gonchar), they went a white hot 18-3-4 to finish 45-28-9, edging out Philadelphia for the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference at 99 points.
Predictably, there’s a good deal of turnover at the Igloo. What championship team doesn’t have players cashing in on their real and perceived contributions? Exeunt: Rob Scuderi, Hal Gill. What championship team doesn’t have several players calling it a career after getting their championship ring? Exit: Philippe Boucher. In addition, others have lost favor with management (which is a bit harder to explain). Exeunt: Petr Sykora, Miroslav Satan.
The Pens obviously have the talent to be one of the top Cup contenders again, but the question remains: who’s stepping in to take the place of the departed ones?
Pittsburgh Penguins - Forwards:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
ESTR: Even Strength Total Rating
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections 2008-2009
Name Age G A P OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT ESTR
Evgeni Malkin 23 45 73 119 22.8 4.1 0.0 26.8 +0.98
Sidney Crosby 22 40 67 108 20.6 3.7 0.0 24.3 +0.32
Jordan Staal 21 21 26 47 5.3 2.5 0.0 7.8 +0.00
Chris Kunitz 30 17 24 41 4.8 2.5 0.0 7.3 +0.62
Ruslan Fedotenko 30 16 22 38 4.9 2.2 0.0 7.1 +1.40
Tyler Kennedy 23 16 20 35 4.2 2.0 0.0 6.2 +1.00
Maxime Talbot 25 15 15 31 2.9 2.2 0.0 5.1 -0.85
Bill Guerin 39 13 19 32 3.5 1.4 0.0 4.9 +0.13
Matt Cooke 31 10 16 26 1.6 1.7 0.0 3.3 -0.40
Pascal Dupuis 30 10 13 23 1.1 1.7 0.0 2.9 -0.34
Dustin Jeffrey 21 6 8 13 0.8 1.0 0.0 1.8 +1.78
Chris Conner 26 6 10 16 0.7 0.9 0.0 1.6 -0.62
Luca Caputi 21 6 7 13 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.4 -0.22
Tim Wallace 25 4 6 11 0.3 0.7 0.0 1.0 +0.88
Wade Brookbank 32 3 4 7 -0.3 0.6 0.0 0.3 -2.34
Craig Adams 32 4 6 9 -0.6 0.7 0.0 0.2 -0.99
Mike Rupp 29 3 5 9 -1.7 0.9 0.0 -0.9 -0.34
Eric Godard 29 2 1 3 -1.9 0.4 0.0 -1.5 -0.70
What’s the first thing that comes to your mind when you hear “Conn Smythe Trophy winner Evgeni Malkin”? Did the light bulb switch on yet? I’m not sure the NHL wants you to know this, but–psst–Evgeni Malkin has proven himself to be a slightly better player than Sidney Crosby. Not that it really matters though. Both were outstanding throughout the postseason, until Maxime Talbot had to don his cape and bring home the championship against the Red Wings.
There are few significant differences between the two superstar centers. As Sid can actually win faceoffs at a decent clip (51.3%)–while Gino is pretty dismal (42.4%)–the Pens definitely need captain Crosby taking key offensive zone draws on the power play. On the other hand, while the two centers were both credited for a pedestrian 80 hits during the regular season, Malkin was willing to ratchet up his physical game in the playoffs, doubling up Crosby 41 Hits to 20 Hits. Also in Malkin’s favor: while both appear to be on approximately level terms according to Defensive GVT, Crosby rates as the worst Penguins’ forward by Even Strength Defensive Rating at -0.47 (GA/60 versus league average modified by strength of opposition and teammates), while Malkin is dead average.
Expect to see a “first line” of Kunitz-Crosby-Guerin again. RW Bill Guerin, the former Islanders’ captain, seems a lock to exceed his VUKOTA predictions of 32 points and 4.9 GVT, based on the vastly superior talent surrounding him now. It’s clear that Pittsburgh got the best of the D Ryan Whitney for LW Chris Kunitz trade with Anaheim. Even with the ex-Ducks’ winger’s extended scoring slump–hard to believe with the gifted linemates that yet another team rewarded him with–Kunitz didn’t turn out to be half the stiff that Ryan Whitney was down the stretch. If that swap wasn’t bad enough for Anaheim, the Penguins acquired what is now their number one prospect, 20 year old LW Eric Tangradi, in the deal. A highly skilled and physical power forward, Tangradi stands a good chance of lining up alongside Crosby or Malkin in the near future, perhaps in the stead of the unspectacular Kunitz.
Even before securing their championship, the Penguins seemed to have more overrated grinders and underrated secondary scorers than you could shake a stick at. Proven snipers RW Petr Sykora and RW Miroslav Satan took turns in Coach Bylsma’s doghouse during the playoffs, for the likes of replacement level fodder like LW Pascal Dupuis and RW Craig Adams, before checking out of Pittsburgh in the offseason. Sure, the Penguins ended up winning the championship, but maybe it didn’t have to be by the hair of their chinny chin chin if they had dressed their best players (although it was great theatre, wasn’t it?). It would have been more defensible to dress bruisers that were going to intimidate and tenderize the opposition, but as Evgeni Malkin dished out more hits than Craig Adams and Sidney Crosby dished out more hits than Pascal Dupuis, there really wasn’t much rhyme or reason to removing the firepower of Sykora and Satan. If you were looking for a semi-skilled grinder to beat the opponent into submission, LW Matt Cooke was already filling that bill along with D Brooks Orpik.
With all that said, Malkin should–without a doubt–be lined up with LW Ruslan Fedotenko and C/RW Tyler Kennedy, and this is even if C/RW Maxime Talbot wasn’t set to miss the first couple of months of 2009-10 after labrum surgery. Fedotenko, also a Stanley Cup winner with Tampa Bay in 2003-04, was an unsung hero for Pittsburgh, a team best +1.40 Even Strength Total Rating (GD/60 versus league average modified by strength of opposition and teammates) in the regular season and a team best +1.62 ESTR in the playoffs. Not only does Kennedy rate better by GVT and much better by ESTR than Talbot and other existing choices to man Malkin’s wing, but is a better faceoff option than Big Gino (53.8%, though over only 78 faceoffs).
The two most memorable postseason highlights for third line center Jordan Staal were the momentum-shifting shorthanded goal against Detroit in Game 4 and the opening goal in Game 6, both vital Penguins’ wins. Yet, a couple of memorable goals don’t make a superstar. Staal has an overblown reputation as a defensive center and offensively, he is very average. Sure, Staal competed admirably for a 20 year old, but with an average annual salary of $4 million over the next 4 years, you have to wonder if he isn’t a little more hype than substance.
C Dustin Jeffrey and LW Luca Caputi may get further NHL auditions in 2009-10, and are potential third or fourth line contributors. The addition of rough and tumble ex-Devil C Mike Rupp seems redundant with the presence of bruiser RW Eric Godard already on the roster.
Pittsburgh Penguins - Defensemen:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
ESTR: Even Strength Total Rating
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections 2008-2009
Name Age G A P OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT ESTR
Sergei Gonchar 35 8 27 34 5.6 3.8 0.0 9.5 +0.92
Kris Letang 22 10 25 35 5.2 3.4 0.0 8.6 -0.23
Alex Goligoski 24 6 16 22 2.7 2.4 0.0 5.1 +0.64
Brooks Orpik 29 2 13 16 0.2 3.5 0.0 3.7 -0.07
Mark Eaton 32 3 9 13 0.8 2.9 0.0 3.7 +0.04
Jay McKee 32 1 7 9 -0.7 4.1 0.0 3.4 +0.54
Nate Guenin 27 2 5 7 0.4 1.1 0.0 1.4 N/A
Ben Lovejoy 25 2 5 7 0.4 1.0 0.0 1.4 -0.31
The Penguins probably don’t win the Stanley Cup without the late season return of established, All-Star caliber defenseman Sergei Gonchar from a shoulder injury suffered on opening night. Keep in mind that a full season for the long time Capital would have prorated out to 20 G, 43 A, 63 P, +20 plus/minus, +16.7 GVT, good for 4th in Goals, 2nd in Points (to “Superman” Mike Green), T-13th in plus/minus amongst NHL defensemen. VUKOTA cautiously predicts only 52 games for Gonchar, but if the veteran Russian can manage 82 GP, you’re looking at 54 points and 14.9 GVT, easily 3rd best on the Pens behind the Big Two. It’s not difficult to see that after Crosby and Malkin, Gonchar is the biggest difference maker the Penguins have on the ice.
Pittsburgh might have had an easier time in the playoffs if they dressed their best defensemen, particularly D Alex Goligoski or D Philippe Boucher instead of the unremarkable Eaton. Think about it: Eaton wasn’t the shutdown defender that D Rob Scuderi or D Hal Gill was, matching up formidably with the opposition’s best forwards; he wasn’t an offensive threat like D Sergei Gonchar or D Kris Letang; Eaton (Regular season: 43 Hits; Playoffs: 9 Hits) didn’t even punish the opposition like D Brooks Orpik (Regular season: 309 Hits; Playoffs: 112 Hits). Nope, he just was. VUKOTA has Alex Goligoski pegged as Pittsburgh’s third best defenseman for 2009-10, he’s considered the Penguins’ second best prospect (a likely 1st pairing defenseman, with the skills to be an excellent power play quarterback) and he warranted a 3 year, $5.5 million contract in the offseason. So why wasn’t Goligoski (0.11 GVT/GP and +0.64 ESTR) or even Philippe Boucher (0.07 GVT/GP and +0.46 ESTR) in the playoff mix over Mark Eaton (0.04 GVT/GP and +0.04 ESTR)?
The good news is that Goligoski is clearly in the Penguins’ plans moving forward, and the better news is that he’s not the only reinforcement coming from within the organization. D Simon Despres, Pittsburgh’s first round selection in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft, may have more upside than Goligoski, but at age 18, he will be returning to the juniors for more seasoning. Not considered a major prospect, D Ben Lovejoy has still excelled in the AHL, posting a league-leading +42 plus/minus rating in 2008-09 for the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins after a team-leading +16 plus/minus for the 2007-08 squad. The Dartmouth product has not looked out of place in the preseason and could earn a spot on the NHL squad.
To bolster the defense after the departure of shutdown pairing Scuderi and Gill, defensive-minded D Jay McKee was brought over from St. Louis. An excellent addition, McKee may well earn a spot on one of the top two pairings. The former Blue was 7th in the NHL with 185 Blocked Shots last season (Scuderi was 12th).
Pittsburgh Penguins - Goalies:
Legend:
OGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections 2008-2009
Name Age GGVT SGVT GVT Save % GAA
Marc-Andre Fleury 25 10.4 0.3 10.7 0.912 2.67
Brent Johnson 32 2.6 -0.1 2.5 0.908 2.81
John Curry 25 1.4 0.0 1.4 0.913 2.40
The ongoing concern for the Penguins throughout the postseason was whether G Marc-Andre Fleury would completely implode at any moment. You never knew if the 24 year old Quebecois would save the game with a series of acrobatic stops or conversely, blow the game by letting in all-too-frequent weak goals. Throughout the playoffs, the Fleury roller coaster never seemed to be able to put together a streak of more than a solid outing or two in a row. While the affable Marc-Andre has been a reasonable quality starter in his young career, he has never really lived up to the promise of being only one of two goaltenders ever chosen first overall in the NHL Entry Draft. It is an open question whether Fleury will ever be able to develop enough concentration and consistency to be a long term solution on a perennial winner.
Ex-Capital G Brent Johnson, a career backup, is now the number two goaltender in Pittsburgh. G John Curry will be back with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, awaiting a future opportunity.
Pittsburgh Penguins – Big Picture:
The Pittsburgh Penguins look to avoid the Stanley Cup hangover to return to the Finals for the third year in a row, with Boston and Washington likely their biggest obstacles to getting there. While the postseason is always a crapshoot, my magic eight ball says that the Pens will be competing deep into the playoffs again. For all their third and fourth line question marks, the team has enough gamers to engender significant confidence in them and a general manager in Ray Shero willing to make deadline deals to fix any major shortcomings.
Chances are that we don’t have a full picture of the Penguins at this point. Aside from the need to maintain the health of Crosby, Malkin, Gonchar and Fleury, the development of young players like Alex Goligoski, and possibly Eric Tangradi, may be pivotal to their ultimate success or failure. As they have done in the past, Pittsburgh is likely to add key pieces before the trading deadline, which may have a major impact on how far they can take their next postseason run. It’s not outside the realm of possibility for them to be repeat winners of both the Stanley Cup and the Conn Smythe Trophy.
Timo Seppa runs the statistical hockey site Ice Hockey Metrics.
Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.
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