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(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 274 (2nd on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 261 (5th on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 196 (1st on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 231 (2nd on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 116 (2nd in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 105 (3rd in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: + 78 (1st Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: + 37 (3rd Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 3.23 (5th on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 2.77 (1st on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: 0.46 (3rd Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Eastern Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 86.8 %
Eastern Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 56.6 %
Eastern Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 35.3 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 21.2 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 12.4 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
Award-winning performances on the back end (with both the Vezina and Norris finding their ways to Beantown), and great strides made by young forwards such as David Krejci and Milan Lucic drove the Bruins to the top of the Eastern Conference in 2008-09. A dissapointing second-round loss in the playoffs did nothing to dampen the new enthusiasm in Boston. The Bruins are back on the scene, and expectations are very high.
Key Addition:
The only key addition to the Bruins lineup is Derek Morris on defense. He provides good depth at the position, taking Aaron Ward's spot on the second pairing with Andrew Ference. He provides more offensive ability than Ward and is a solid addition.
Forwards:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Marc Savard F 32 73.7 24.1 51.3 75.4 11.1 3.2 0.0 14.3
David Krejci F 23 73.5 21.9 43.0 64.9 10.2 3.7 0.0 13.9
Michael Ryder F 29 67.9 21.3 26.6 47.9 6.5 2.5 0.0 9.0
Milan Lucic F 21 69.7 18.3 27.4 45.6 5.7 2.7 0.0 8.4
Blake Wheeler F 23 75.4 18.8 24.2 43.1 4.7 3.4 0.2 8.3
Chuck Kobasew F 27 64.9 19.8 21.9 41.7 5.3 2.0 0.0 7.2
Patrice Bergeron F 24 60.6 12.2 28.1 40.3 4.2 2.1 -0.2 6.1
Mark Recchi F 41 61.2 15.2 27.4 42.6 4.7 1.0 0.0 5.8
Marco Sturm F 31 48.1 13.3 16.1 29.4 3.7 1.6 0.0 5.3
Byron Bitz F 25 43.2 6.8 7.4 14.3 0.8 0.8 0.0 1.6
Mikko Lehtonen F 22 28.1 5.3 6.7 12.0 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.4
Trent Whitfield F 32 27.6 4.2 6.2 10.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.2
Steve Begin F 31 52.3 6.0 6.6 12.6 -0.1 1.0 0.0 0.8
Vladimir Sobotka F 22 41.5 5.2 7.9 13.2 -0.2 0.5 0.0 0.3
Shawn Thornton F 32 55.8 5.1 4.7 9.8 -1.3 0.8 0.0 -0.4
Make no mistake, the loss of Phil Kessel hurts this team. His 33 projected goals and 13.8 projected GVT will be dearly missed, but the Bruins still have the makings of a very good, and a very deep, forward unit.
The top three lines can be built around three very capable centers in Marc Savard (14.3 projected GVT), Krejci (13.9) and the oft-injured Patrice Bergeron (6.1, but capable of much more). Each brings a great deal of skill to their position that few in the game can match. On the wings, the lineup isn't set, but there is a very deep group of talent to fill these six positions. Veterans Michael Ryder and Marco Sturm will most likely be on the top line, but don't rule out youngster Blake Wheeler and fan-favourite Lucic, both of whom could also get the call to play on the first line. Chuck Kobasew and Mark Recchi will both find themselves as the wingers on the third-line, so all of the top-six wingers project to contribute at least 5.3 GVT, and yes, that includes the aging Recchi. Overall, Boston has a very deep pool of forwards, and management can play mix-and-match on the wings as they please.
Steve Begin will take over for Stephane Yelle as the fourth-line center, which is really a wash, considering that both players are of virtually identical value. Winger Byron Bitz has the makings of a useful player on the right side of the fourth line, while left winger Shawn Thornton does not, though Thornton will likely play anyway because of his willingness to throw punches at opposing players.
On the Draw:
The Bruins should be decent on the draw. Savard and Krejci are both good in the faceoff circle, and Bergeron is at least above average. The only weakness in this department will be Begin on the fourth line, who struggles when he has to take faceoffs. Unfornately, he'll be called upon to take a good number of defensive-zone draws in his role as a penalty-killer, and he probably won't be up to the task. The 31 year old has played primarily on the left wing in his career, taking only 361 faceoffs in the last three years and winning just 46.5% of the time. This is one aspect of the game in which the southpaw center is a downgrade from Yelle. Young Vladimir Sobotka could alleviate this faceoff problem if the Bruins front office decides to drop Thornton from the lineup, which would free up a wing position for Begin and allow Sobotka to step in as the fourth-line center. This would help the team in a variety of ways, both on the draw and otherwise.
Defensemen:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Dennis Wideman D 26 77.0 10.9 34.4 45.2 6.8 5.9 0.0 12.7
Zdeno Chara D 32 73.8 12.2 33.8 46.1 7.3 5.4 0.0 12.6
Matt Hunwick D 24 57.2 6.3 19.9 26.2 3.8 3.4 0.0 7.2
Derek Morris D 31 64.7 4.5 15.5 20.0 1.6 3.2 0.0 4.8
Mark Stuart D 25 66.6 3.4 10.6 14.0 0.5 3.5 0.0 3.9
Andrew Ference D 30 51.4 2.5 12.9 15.5 1.0 2.2 0.0 3.2
Johnny Boychuk D 25 27.9 1.6 5.3 6.9 0.4 1.1 0.0 1.4
The Bruins very wisely loaded up their ice time with their top two defensemen last year. Zdeno Chara (huge and hyped) and Dennis Wideman (small and unheralded) provide an excellent one-two punch on the blueline that only a couple of teams in the league are capable of matching. Both Wideman and Chara play top minutes on the power-play and excel at killing penalties. Ference (smaller than Wideman, and underrated throughout his career as well) and Morris will eat up about 20 minutes each of ice time, which doesn't bode well for the amount of ice time the remaining pair, Matt Hunwick and Mark Stuart, will receive. The Michigan born Hunwick may see some increased power-play time in 2009-10, and he could eventually be the go-to point man with the man advantage, but he's going to have to wait as long as Chara and Wideman are playing for Boston.
Goaltenders:
Legend:
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP GGVT SGVT GVT
Tim Thomas G 35 53.4 20.1 0.1 20.2
Tuukka Rask G 22 15.6 2.0 0.0 2.0
Can Tim Thomas repeat his remarkable Vezina-winning performance from last year? The Michigan native seems to improve with age, though at 35 years old a slowdown seems likely. VUKOTA projects a drop in GVT to 20.2 for Thomas, which is still a remarkable number, and the best projection for an NHL goalie by over three full goals. Goaltender performance is subject to a greater deal of variation from year to year than a forward or defenseman's performance, and the system expects Thomas to regress to the mean by a decent margin. However, even with this regression, Thomas should still be the most valuable player on the team, and the most valuable netminder in the league.
22-year-old Tuukka Rask had a good year in Providence last year, and still figures to be the goalie of the future in Boston. However, at his age, he's better off starting in the AHL than riding the pine in the NHL. Another full season in the minors is in his future. Ex-Penguin Dany Sabourin should step in the backup role, providing Thomas with much-needed rest.
Cap Crunch:
Ask a Bruins fan what he thinks of the salary cap these days, and you'll likely receive a colorful answer. GM Peter Chiarelli was in a very difficult situation with young star Kessel, who wanted out of Boston, and had a way out. As a restricted free agent, another team could have produced an offer sheet which the Bruins would have had to match, and if they couldn't, they would have had to let him go to the team that made the offer. As much as the Bruins wanted to keep the former first round pick, they simply did not have the cap room to keep his salary on the payroll. Thankfully, the GM of the scoring-starved Maple Leafs, Brian Burke, came along and offered enough draft picks to Chiarelli that was enough to entice the Bruins into moving Kessel. Boston received two first-round picks, leaving them now with four first round selections over the next two years, along with a second-round pick. The compensation they would have received from the offer sheet situation would have been picks in the first, second and third rounds, so Chiarelli seems to have made a very good deal in a tough spot. While trading Kessel to the Leafs decreases the value of the Leafs draft picks, Toronto will still not have a very strong team and those picks should have significant value.
Boston's depth at forward is one reason they had to trade Kessel. Ryder is no bargain for a one-dimensional goal-scorer, with a cap hit of $4 million, and neither is Sturm's $3.5 million salary. However, Chiarelli must be given credit for amassing the talent he has for the Boston Bruins.
What to Expect:
With Kessel gone, the Bruins figure to be less dynamic on offense, though they will certainly still be good at putting pucks in the net. The front-loaded defense and rock-solid goaltending combined should make this team very difficult to score against. Boston will find it very difficult to compete with the offensive juggernaut in Washington, which sudddenly now has a respectable defense. The key to pulling off the mild upset in the Eastern Conference will be up to Tim Thomas. If Thomas can somehow manage to replicate his amazing performance from last season, then the young Capitals may find themselves chasing the Bruins, and not the other way around. | 
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