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(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 257 (T-7th on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 248 (10th on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 204 (3rd on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 238 (T-4th on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 117 (1st in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 96 (8th in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: + 53 (2nd Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: + 12.5 (8th Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 3.07 (T-8th on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 2.86 (T-3rd on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: 0.21 (6th Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Western Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 70.8 %
Western Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 39.3 %
Western Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 21.1 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 10.7 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 5.2 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
Growing up, I was a fan of two professional sports teams: the Winnipeg Jets and the Montreal Expos. I’ll spare you the details of the death of the WHA, Wayne Gretzky’s dominance of the Smythe Division, two playoff runs interrupted by labor stoppages, a Wild Card that came too late, and the mindset that thought the Phoenix Coyotes and Washington Nationals would be successful sports franchises. Suffice to say that I don’t focus on the playoffs.
For Sharks fans, it has been tough to not focus on the playoffs, but I can’t get too worked up over their first round exit against the Anaheim Ducks last year. There have been 33 similar first round series' since 1980 where one team had a pythagorean winning percentage between 80 and 120 points higher than their opponent – and they won just 20 of them – 61%. The Ducks were significantly better than their goal differential indicated, so what was perceived as a 1st seed versus an 8th seed matchup was nearly a toss-up.
Nonetheless, the Sharks actually dominated the play: they outshot the Ducks, on average, 51-40 (Detroit outshot them by even more and still took seven games to beat them.) They got the same number of power-play opportunities, and spent more time on the man-advantage than the Ducks did. Even though the Ducks have undeniably good defensemen and defensive forwards, the Sharks’ expected shooting percentages were still better-than-average: 5.7% at even-strength (vs 5.3% for the league) and 9.5% on the power-play (vs 8.6% league-wide.) No, the problem was the unfathomably good goaltending of Jonas Hiller, who somehow managed to let in an unsustainable 3.3% of the shots the Sharks directed at the Ducks net. At the other end of the ice, Evgeni Nabokov let in 7.5% of Anaheim’s shots at net. That’s the entire story.
So if you accept that the Sharks’ playoff “choking” means very little, what moves do you make in the offseason? Well, you couldn’t do much more than the Sharks did: they kept eight of their top ten scorers, they’ll miss Milan Michalek, but not Christian Ehrhoff, who was a liability at even-strength; they picked up Dany Heatley, one of just four players to score 50 goals twice in the last decade; and they gave themselves the best face-off crew in the league by signing the undervalued Manny Malhotra. The Sharks won’t win the President’s Trophy again, but they substantially improved the team over last year.
Legend:
TOI: Time On Ice
SF/60: Shots For per 60 Minutes
SA/60: Shots Against per 60 Minutes
RK: Ranking
Statistical Summary
TOI RK SF/60 RK SA/60 RK
5v5 46 8 31 8 26 29
5v4 6.5 13 57 6 8.4 14
4v5 5.6 28 8.3 13 47 25
4v4 2 9 35 7 31 18
The Sharks were simply dominant during the regular season. They took a huge number of shots at 5-on-5 and played shutdown defense. They had a large number of power-plays and were exceedingly efficient, while they took very few penalties and killed the ones they did take very effectively. It’s no surprise that they allowed fewer goals than all but two teams, were outscored only by the best teams in the league, and finished with more wins than every other team. The playoffs obscured how good this team was at the beginning of the year; they were just .500 over their final 41 games.
Even-Strength Defense:
I’ve written at length about the Sharks’ defense. It was critical for the Sharks to move Ehrhoff (and his contract) in order to improve the defense and that was accomplished. I’ve softened my stance somewhat on Dan Boyle – as one team executive pointed out to me: “Unlike Brian Campbell, at least he tries on defense.” After Boyle, Vlasic, Blake, Murray and Huskins, it’s unclear who’ll round out the Sharks’ defensive crew. Brad Staubitz and Derek Joslin did not impress last year, while Mathieu Dandenault hasn’t been healthy for several seasons. As soon as the season starts, the Sharks can add impending free agents without their salaries counting against the cap, so we may see that very early on.
Even-Strength Offense:
The Sharks had one of the best shot differentials in the league at 5-on-5, behind just Washington, Detroit and Chicago. They were substantially outshot by those teams, but San Jose was also a cut above those three in shot prevention, tying with Ken Hitchcock’s Blue Jackets for the fewest shots allowed per game. Indeed, if you don’t play defense in Todd McLellan’s system, you’ll be renting an apartment in Worcester, Mass. For all the complaints about Joe Thornton, no one can deny that he always lines up against the other team’s first line and consistently outplays them at both ends of the ice. The Sharks have improved both their face-off performance (Malhotra) and their offensive threats (swapping Michalek for Heatley) this season, so they may even improve their performance at even-strength.
Goaltending:
Evgeni Nabokov’s career save percentage is .911. It was .910 last season and .910 the season before that. The Sharks were expecting more when they signed him to a 4-year, $21.5 million contract, but clearly, with exceptional defense, a team can have the best record in the league despite having a goaltender who’s just barely better than league average. This is Nabokov’s walk year – expect it to be his last season in San Jose, but also expect him to be worked very heavily – backup Thomas Greiss has not yet impressed at the AHL level.
Power-Play:
The power-play loses Milan Michalek, Jonathan Cheechoo and Christian Ehrhoff but adds Dany Heatley, with the rest of the crew remaining largely the same. VUKOTA is bearish on Heatley’s impact, but I’m convinced he’ll be worth as much as the three lost players – which will fight the tremendous regression the Sharks expect with the man-advantage. What’s unclear is who’ll man the second point on the first unit, with Thornton, Marleau, Heatley and Boyle set to take the other four spots.
Penalty-Kill:
The Sharks moved out nearly half of their penalty-killing units from last season, including Grier and Michalek, who did a big chunk of the heavy-lifting against opponents’ first lines. The return of Torrey Mitchell and the addition of Manny Malhotra to the mix helps quite a bit, and the back-end of the penalty-kill will depend on who among Jed Ortmeyer, Mathieu Dandenault and Dan Hinote impresses the most in training camp.
Roster:
Forwards
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Joe Thornton F 30 79.5 25.4 52.6 78.0 11.3 4.0 0.0 15.3
Dany Heatley F 28 80.7 33.9 36.7 70.6 10.4 3.1 -0.1 13.4
Devin Setoguchi F 22 77.3 28.2 33.5 61.7 8.8 3.5 -0.1 12.3
Patrick Marleau F 30 78.0 27.5 32.3 59.8 7.6 3.6 0.0 11.3
Joe Pavelski F 25 76.3 22.0 30.3 52.2 6.0 3.3 0.1 9.5
Ryane Clowe F 27 66.6 19.0 26.9 45.9 5.3 2.4 0.1 7.9
Manny Malhotra F 29 69.3 11.1 19.3 30.4 1.6 2.7 0.0 4.4
Scott Nichol F 35 51.5 6.0 7.8 13.8 0.2 1.5 0.0 1.8
Jed Ortmeyer F 31 33.5 4.5 5.6 10.1 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.9
Jamie McGinn F 21 43.8 6.8 6.4 13.2 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.7
Ryan Vesce F 27 30.7 4.1 5.2 9.3 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.6
Dwight Helminen F 26 37.0 4.2 5.1 9.4 -0.3 0.6 0.0 0.4
Jody Shelley F 33 52.2 2.0 2.8 4.8 -1.6 0.6 0.0 -1.0
Torrey Mitchell F 24 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Defensemen
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Dan Boyle D 33 71.8 11.5 35.8 47.3 7.7 5.4 -0.1 13.0
Marc-Edouard Vlasic D 22 78.4 6.4 24.3 30.7 2.8 6.1 0.0 8.9
Rob Blake D 40 62.2 6.9 25.1 32.0 4.9 4.0 0.0 8.9
Kent Huskins D 30 50.9 2.6 9.5 12.1 0.6 2.9 0.0 3.5
Douglas Murray D 29 65.0 1.0 7.4 8.4 -1.1 4.2 0.0 3.2
Joe Callahan D 27 36.2 1.3 5.5 6.9 0.1 1.7 0.0 1.8
Brad Staubitz D 25 42.0 1.5 4.3 5.7 0.0 1.3 0.0 1.4
Derek Joslin D 22 32.5 1.5 4.8 6.4 -0.1 1.0 0.0 0.9
Goaltending
Legend:
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP GGVT SGVT GVT
Evgeni Nabokov G 34 48.8 5.6 -0.4 5.2
Thomas Greiss G 23 -- -- -- --
Outlook:
Of the 2008-09 San Jose Sharks, much was expected, and they delivered initially with a hot start. They came down to earth in the second half of the season and made an early playoff exit against a very good Anaheim team. Hung with the “choker” label, management had free reign to trade away any player, but they avoided emotional decisions, keeping their best players in the fold and improving key aspects of their team. Like last season, they are one of the top tier teams in the league, and only Pittsburgh and Detroit are more-heavily-favored to win the Stanley Cup, according to the oddsmakers, though we don't agree with either of those teams being in the top two. No matter how the team does during the season, they won’t draw much flak from the local media that largely ignores them, but it seems like anything less than a Stanley Cup appearance (and probably a win) will be just more evidence that Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau and the rest of the Sharks can’t win the big games.
Gabriel Desjardins is an author of Puck Prospectus and runs the statistical hockey site behindthenet.ca. You can contact him at info at behindthenet.ca. | 
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