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(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 249 (12th on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 245 (11th on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 247 (21st on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 244 (T-14th on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 93 (T-13th in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 93 (T-10th in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: + 2 (16th Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: + 6 (10th Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 3.02 (T-11th on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 2.95 (T-14th on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: 0.07 (10th Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Eastern Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 56.0 %
Eastern Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 26.8 %
Eastern Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 12.3 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 5.5 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 2.5 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
Montreal decided to dramatically alter the face of the Canadiens after last year's disappointing season. Leaving aside the issue of whether last year's team deserved such high expectations, management clearly decided the club was underperforming. Gone are forwards Alex Kovalev, Robert Lang, Alex Tanguay and Chrig Higgins. Defensemen Mike Komisarek, Mathieu Schneider, Francis Boullion, Patrice Brisebois and Mathieu Dandenault have also departed, giving the defense corps a significantly different look regardless of who was brought in to replace them. Even longtime captain Saku Koivu, the heart and soul of the team for years (though he missed one out of every four games in his career), was not re-signed. GM Bob Gainey decided changes needed to be made, and dramatic ones they turned out to be.
Some have questioned whether the changes have actually made the team better, or if they're change for the sake of change. Has the team moved sideways rather than going up? On the whole, VUKOTA likes the moves made, in the sense that the team should be significantly better than last year and finish in the top half of playoff teams. Whether they can do any more than that remains to be seen.
Key Additions:
Okay, who isn't new on this team? The summer saw a massive influx of new players, the most inportant of which are center Scott Gomez, wingers Mike Cammalleri and Brian Gionta, and defensemen Jaroslav Spacek, Paul Mara and Hal Gill. The entire first line is new, and each member of that line is certainly a key addition.
The question is, are all these new players enough to replace those departed? Koivu, Kovalev, Lang, Tanguay, Higgins, Komisarek and Schneider leave significant holes to be filled, and many lesser players like Tom Kostopoulos, Patrice Brisebois and Francis Bouillon are out as well. The kids will have to step up because from a pure number-of-bodies perspective, the Habs have a deficit from last season.
Forwards:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Michael Cammalleri F 27 71.3 29.8 38.0 67.8 10.5 1.9 -0.1 12.3
Scott Gomez F 30 73.1 18.4 38.6 57.1 6.4 3.0 0.0 9.4
Brian Gionta F 30 73.0 19.8 32.5 52.3 6.4 2.8 0.0 9.1
Andrei Kostitsyn F 24 69.8 23.8 23.6 47.4 5.8 1.9 -0.1 7.5
Tomas Plekanec F 27 68.8 20.3 24.3 44.6 5.6 1.8 -0.1 7.2
Guillaume Latendresse F 22 58.7 14.9 15.1 30.0 3.2 1.3 0.0 4.5
Sergei Kostitsyn F 22 57.0 11.5 18.3 29.9 2.7 1.5 0.0 4.2
Maxim Lapierre F 24 66.3 12.3 14.2 26.5 1.7 2.2 0.1 4.0
Matt D'Agostini F 23 51.1 12.4 11.9 24.3 1.9 0.1 0.0 2.0
Glen Metropolit F 35 59.2 6.7 12.0 18.7 0.5 1.1 0.0 1.5
Max Pacioretty F 21 44.5 6.9 11.4 18.3 0.7 0.7 0.0 1.4
Kyle Chipchura F 23 36.0 5.5 8.5 14.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.2
Ben Maxwell F 21 30.5 5.0 6.2 11.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0
Georges Laraque F 33 43.0 3.3 5.6 8.9 -0.6 0.5 0.0 -0.1
Travis Moen F 27 61.4 5.7 7.0 12.7 -1.6 0.9 0.0 -0.8
Gainey signaled the massive changes that were to come by pulling off a trade for Gomez with the Rangers one day before free agent season opened. It was technically a seven-player deal, but other than Gomez and Higgins the players involved (Tom Pyatt and Michael Busto going to Montreal and Ryan McDonagh, Pavel Valentenko and Doug Janik going to New York) are ultimately spare parts, despite McDonagh's high draft position a couple of years ago. Obtaining Gomez for Higgins would seem like a win for Montreal, though Gomez is three years older than Higgins. However his cap hit is over $5 million dollars higher than Higgins, and he's certainly not worth that much more as a player.
However, the team's big free agent signings at forward, Cammelleri and Gionta, apparently would not have agreed to play in Montreal if it were not for Gomez's presence. So player personality enters into the equation, making the trade more undertstable and justifiable.
As a result, Montreal has an entirely new top line in these three new players. One thing that immediately sticks out is how many shots this line will be putting on the opponent's net. Gomez, who has a reputation as a playmaker, led his team with 271 shots on goal last year. Cammalleri was second among Flames forwards with 255 shots, and Gionta was second on the Devils with 248 shots. Also worth noting is the low scoring percentage recorded by Gomez (5.9%) and Gionta (8.1%). If they had simply matched their career percentages in this regard last year, they would have scored 21 and 28 goals respectively, rather than the 16 and 20 they actually scored. (For completeness, Cammalleri would have scored 32 goals instead of 39 if he matched his career scoring percentage.) Gomez has always had a low scoring percentage, which is unusual for a playmaker, but part of his game has always been putting a lot of pucks on net.
Gionta in particular is primed for a jump in his goal total, given the limited power-play time he received the past few years in New Jersey. He certainly won't match the 48 goals he scored in 2005/-6, but 30-35 goals is a very real possiblity.
Another notable fact about this line is their size. Gainey clearly does not buy into the pervasive idea that "small equals bad" when it comes to NHL players. Gomez is the largest of the three, standing 5-11. Cammalleri is listed at 5-9 and Gionta at 5-7. They will surely be the smallest line in the league, and yet they will still be very effective. There's a significant amount of skill packed into those small bodies.
Compared to last season, the Habs have exchanged their depth at forward for depth on defense. This leaves them with two-thirds of a solid second line in center Tomas Plekanec and winger Andrei Kostitsyn. The one concern for this line is that it needs a right winger, and there is no clear choice there; the team needs a young player to step up and contribute some goals. The best candidate is power forward Guillaume Latendresse, who has had some success at the NHL level but hasn't really elevated his game in his three major-league years. If he doesn't work out Matt D'Agostini is another possibility. D'Agostini had unimpressive junior numbers but his minor-pro scoring has been good, and he had some success with the big club last year. Finally there's the younger Kostitsyn brother, Sergei, who has enormous talent but needs to improve greatly in his consistency if he wants to play on the second line.
The third line should be D'Agostini and Kostitsyn, centered by Maxim Lapierre who surprised everyone by scoring 15 goals last season. Lapierre has very good speed and an equally good work ethic, and makes a perfect third-line center. The fourth line, who should see limited ice time, will be Glen Metropolit between Travis Moen and Georges Laraque. None of these players contribute very much, though they're not really expected to. Their combined $4 million dollar cap hit hurts the team's flexibility, however. Starting the season in Hamilton will be Max Pacioretty, Ben Maxwell, Kyle Chipchura and veteran free-agent signing Mathieu Darche, who offers good scoring depth and should be the first callup in case of injury.
On the Draw:
Gomez has been incredibly consistent over the last three years in winning draws, winning between 52.2% and 52.5% each year. Plekanec, who has won precisely the same number of draws as Gomez in those years (1,927) but also lost over 210 more, is about average and should be expected to win just under 50% of his faceoffs. Metropolit should be the same. The wildcard here is Lapierre. In his three NHL seasons, he has improved his faceoff winning percentage from 45.2% to 49.2% to 53.2%, exactly 4% each year. It would be unreasonable to expect another 4% improvement this year, since that would put him among the league's elite, but he seems likely to maintain his figure from last year. He has come a long way as a player in just a few years. Ultimately, faceoffs for the team certainly won't be a weakness, but they won't be too much of a strength either.
Defensemen:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Andrei Markov D 31 68.7 11.1 38.6 49.8 8.4 4.5 0.1 13.0
Jaroslav Spacek D 35 68.4 7.1 27.5 34.6 4.5 4.1 0.0 8.6
Roman Hamrlik D 35 63.0 4.8 18.8 23.7 2.9 3.2 0.0 6.1
Josh Gorges D 25 68.0 3.7 15.5 19.2 1.2 3.8 0.0 5.0
Paul Mara D 30 64.8 4.1 15.7 19.8 1.1 3.7 0.0 4.9
Hal Gill D 34 56.6 2.2 10.7 13.0 0.3 3.5 0.0 3.9
Yannick Weber D 21 30.5 2.8 7.6 10.3 1.2 1.2 0.0 2.4
Ryan O'Byrne D 25 43.3 1.5 6.4 7.9 -0.1 1.3 0.0 1.2
Alex Henry D 30 26.3 1.4 4.9 6.3 0.3 0.8 0.0 1.2
Barring injury, the Habs now have six legitimate NHL defensemen in Markov, Hamrlik, Spacek, Mara, Gill and Josh Gorges. Last year the blueline was too often patrolled by fill-in players like Brisebois (who averaged only 15:54 in ice time in 62 games), Bouillon (16:29 in 54 games) and Ryan O'Byrne (15:05 in 37 games). If a defenseman is receiving that little of ice time, you know the coach is only playing him to give the other blueliners a rest, and doesn't have confidence in his abilities (Brisebois, for instance, was once a good player but lost too many steps to be useful anymore). Of the current group, only Gill and Mara averaged less than 20 minutes per game last year, at 17:53 and 18:57 respectively. They'll probably receive about the same amount of playing time this year, not because they're subpar defensemen but rather from the lack of ice time to go around. Bringing them up to 20 minutes per game would take time away from the better defensemen. While Mara and Gill are not spectacular additions, they provide depth that simply wasn't there before. Finally, there's the veteran Spacek, who was Buffalo's number-one defenseman last year, and for many years before, while he was playing in Columbus.
This group is a very deep and talented one, and are remarkably similar in defensive value. VUKOTA projects them all to produce between 3.2 and 4.5 defensive GVT. There is no weak spot in the group to be taken advantage of defensively. Their offensive value varies wildly of course, but even the offensively inept Gill (0.3 projected offensive GVT) provides enough defense to be an adequate player (3.9 overall GVT). Expect Markov to be the team's best player again, comfortably meeting his projection of 13.0 GVT.
One of the advantages to the depth among the top four defensemen is that it provides the power-play with insurance in the case of a major injury to one of the best defensemen on the team. Orr forbid if Markov were to be injured, but if he does have to miss time the Habs have several suitable replacements as the go-to point man with the man advantage. Markov is the only blueliner on the team with more than one 50-point season under his belt, but if we look at 40-point seasons, Hamrlik has six in his career, Spacek has three and even Mara has two from his days in Phoenix.
The only real concern about the defense is their age. Of the top six, only one (Gorges) is under 30, and Gill, Spacek and Hamrlik are all 34 or older. Compare this to the forward unit, where the only players over 30 play on the fourth line (Laraque and Metropolit); even free agent additions Gomez and Gionta aren't 31 yet. So the team has a young group of forwards and a fairly old bunch of defensemen. That's fine for a team that wants to use speed on the attack, but it does create some injury concerns in their own end (though the goaltenders are also very young). The team is fairly thin on the farm, with youngsters O'Byrne and Yanick Weber the best bet for callups. Weber should be very good in the future, but he needs more time to develop.
Goaltenders:
Legend:
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP GGVT SGVT GVT
Jaroslav Halak G 24 35.3 6.8 0.1 6.9
Carey Price G 22 43.8 4.4 -0.1 4.4
Curtis Sanford G 30 21.3 1.8 0.0 1.8
Starting goalie Carey Price is by far the biggest question mark on the team. Which version of Price show up this year? If it's the 2008-09 version, he'll provide the club with solid goaltending and produce decent numbers, but won't elevate the team beyond what the skaters are able to produce. If it's the 2007-08 version, the Habs should be able to make a good playoff run. Price has been similarly inconsistent in junior league play and in the minors, so his performance this year remains an open question. VUKOTA is typically conservative, calling for a 4.4 GVT in 44 games. Don't be surprised if he exceeds that.
Backup Jaroslav Halak is very good, sporting a .914 save percentage in 56 NHL games and an exceptional .930 mark in 89 minor-league games. If Price falters again this year, management should not hesitate to give Halak his shot. He's not nearly as celebrated as Price, but he may very well be a better goaltender. Solid veteran Curtis Sanford was signed to provide insurance.
What to Expect:
There is room for a miracle season here that ends with the Montreal Canadiens hoisting the Stanley Cup. Compared to last season, the popular expectations for the team are lower, but the rational expectations are higher. Entering last year, there was some talk that the Habs were one of the better teams in the league, and that they had a legitimate shot at winning the Cup. Part of that was fueled by nostalgia, given the team's 100th anniversary, and part was their performance the previous year. However, that season the team played over their heads, and needed quite a bit of luck to finish as well as they did.
This year is different. Many experts claim the team is just different, but not really better. VUKOTA disagrees. Montreal should be a very good team, though not a great one. They should finish comfortably in the playoff picture, and probably make it to the second round, depending on who their first round opponent is. If Price becomes the goaltender many think he can be, so much the better, but it is very unlikely that they will be able to challenge teams like Pittsburgh, Boston or Washington in their own conference, much less Detroit or Chicago for the Cup. | 
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