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(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 250 (T-10th on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 238 (T-16th on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 234 (T-13th on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 248 (18th on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 91 (T-17th in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 90 (T-16th in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: + 16 (11th Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: - 4 (T-18th Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 2.94 (T-15th on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 2.98 (T-17th on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: -0.04 (T-17th Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Eastern Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 52.0 %
Eastern Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 23.4 %
Eastern Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 9.7 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 3.9 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 1.6 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
Despite finishing out of the playoffs last year, Sabres management did not see the need to revamp their team. This does make sense, but only to a degree. Buffalo has a very good core of young forwards who should continue to develop, improving the team's chances. Unfortunately, the team is very weak on the blueline, and the departure of their ice-time leader Jaroslav Spacek will be a difficult blow to recover from. The Sabres offer little to discourage their opponents in the defensize zone, and that will be the team's downfall.
Key Additions:
None. Other than Steve Montador, a depth defenseman who can replace the departed Teppo Numminen, there will be no new faces skating at the HSBC Arena for Buffalo. The loss of number-one blueliner Spacek really hurts the team a great deal, since they failed to bring in anyone to replace him. The Sabres only have about $3 million in cap space to work with, so any additions could prove difficult. A player like the recently-signed Panther Dennis Seidenberg would have been a great addition to this team, though the price tag would probably have been too cost prohibitive for Buffalo. Jochen Hecht's contract hurts here (signed through 2011-12 at a cap hit of $3.5 million), as do the nearly-$3 million contracts of Henrik Tallinder and Toni Lydman. At least the latter two are unrestricted free agents after this season, which might free up some cash to sign a younger, more productive blueliner.
Forwards:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Derek Roy F 26 80.5 27.8 41.7 69.5 9.5 3.2 0.1 12.8
Thomas Vanek F 25 75.8 34.8 30.9 65.7 10.5 2.3 -0.2 12.6
Jason Pominville F 27 79.3 22.5 42.3 64.8 8.2 3.2 0.1 11.5
Tim Connolly F 28 59.6 17.0 29.1 46.1 5.8 2.5 -0.1 8.3
Drew Stafford F 24 69.8 18.9 25.0 43.9 5.3 1.9 0.0 7.2
Daniel Paille F 25 65.7 13.5 16.1 29.5 3.0 1.8 0.0 4.7
Clarke MacArthur F 24 61.8 15.4 15.5 30.8 3.1 1.3 -0.1 4.4
Paul Gaustad F 27 63.9 11.8 18.7 30.6 2.4 2.0 0.0 4.4
Jochen Hecht F 32 64.3 13.1 17.6 30.7 2.5 1.7 0.0 4.2
Matt Ellis F 28 48.0 6.6 7.3 13.9 0.8 1.0 0.0 1.8
Adam Mair F 30 59.1 6.5 9.9 16.4 0.6 1.1 0.0 1.6
Tim Kennedy F 23 27.9 5.2 6.5 11.7 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.3
Nathan Gerbe F 22 33.0 4.9 6.7 11.6 0.3 0.8 0.0 1.0
Patrick Kaleta F 23 49.5 5.7 6.8 12.5 -0.2 0.9 0.0 0.7
Cody McCormick F 26 50.7 3.7 9.1 12.8 -0.5 1.1 0.0 0.6
The Sabres are blessed with a very deep group of forwards. Though some teams have more talent concentrated in the top two lines than the Sabres do, very few teams in the league can boast having nine forwards who project to contribute a GVT of 4.2 or more. Considering VUKOTA's relatively conservative games played projections, the Sabres are basically set in their first three lines, and should receive good production from all of them. They have six players are capable of scoring 20 goals: Thomas Vanek, Derek Roy, Jason Pominville, Tim Connolly, Drew Stafford and Clarke MacArthur. In addition, Paul Gaustad, Daniel Paille and Jochen Hecht should be counted on for about a dozen goals apiece. Scoring depth is not an issue for this team.
The top line of Roy centering Vanek and Pominville compares well with the first line of most teams. The second line will likely be Connolly between Hecht and the newly-resigned Stafford, with Paille and MacArhur flanking Gaustad on the third. The only spots up for grabs are on the fourth line, where Adam Mair is set in the middle but the rest of the line is up in the air.
Mair is unusual for a tough guy because he contributes a modicum of actual playing value to the team. However, with designated enforcer Andrew Peters gone, Mair might find himself called upon to "stand up for his teammates", which would increase his time in the penalty box, and decrease his time actually playing hockey.
The 30 year old's most likely linemates will be Matt Ellis and Patrick Kaleta, who are both solid NHL fourth-liners. Tim Kennedy and Mark Mancari are other possibilities on the wings, but their game is more skill-oriented and as such they aren't great fits on this line. They'll have to wait until a spot opens up on another line before they can really contribute.
On the Draw:
Poor performance in the faceoff circle is a kind of hidden weakness. Although faceoff statistics are kept in some detail, they are not mainstream. So the fact that the Sabres are terrible at winning draws may go unnoticed by most, but it will show up in the standings at the end of the year. Let's look at the faceoff production of the current forward unit over the last four years to see what the team has to work with.
Legend:
TF: Total Faceoffs
FW: Faceoffs Won
FL: Faceoffs Lost
F%: Faceoff Winning Percentage
Name GP TF FW FL F%
Gaustad 276 3238 1729 1509 53.4
Roy 305 4798 2393 2405 49.9
Ellis 115 401 188 213 46.9
Mair 269 917 429 488 46.8
Connolly 161 1864 817 1047 43.8
Hecht 285 1744 734 1010 42.1
Pominville 303 153 57 96 37.3
MacArthur 127 282 103 179 36.5
Stafford 184 54 18 36 33.3
Paille 193 68 21 47 30.9
Vanek 318 81 23 58 28.4
If it weren't for Gaustad, Buffalo would be completely hopless in the circle. Roy takes the most faceoffs on the team, as the number-one center, and is merely average. Gaustad is solid on the third line, which fits well with his checking role. In between, the second line is terrible at winning draws and Connolly comes in at winning under 44% of faceoffs. This weakness is clearly noted by the coaching staff, who have given Connolly less faceoffs per game than Gaustad (11.6 versus 11.7) despite greater playing time. Unfortunately most of the faceoffs taken away from Connolly have gone to Hecht, who is even worse. Hecht has taken a significant number of faceoffs since Chris Drury and Daniel Briere left the team, though his numbers beg the question "why?"
The answer is that there really isn't a better option. Fourth-line center Mair is below average, and there isn't anyone playing on the wings who is effective on faceoffs either. Ellis isn't terrible, but MacArthur, Stafford and Paille are. Buffalo will lose a lot of faceoffs, and there doesn't seem to much they can do about it, given their current lineup.
Defensemen:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Craig Rivet D 35 60.7 3.8 18.9 22.7 2.4 3.8 0.0 6.1
Steve Montador D 30 66.9 4.5 15.3 19.8 1.9 3.9 -0.1 5.7
Toni Lydman D 32 63.4 3.0 14.3 17.3 1.2 3.1 0.1 4.4
Andrej Sekera D 23 60.0 3.8 13.9 17.7 1.1 2.2 0.0 3.3
Henrik Tallinder D 30 58.7 1.7 9.8 11.6 0.1 2.6 0.0 2.7
Chris Butler D 23 52.6 2.3 6.9 9.2 0.0 2.7 0.0 2.7
Nathan Paetsch D 26 43.4 2.4 7.5 9.9 0.7 1.7 0.0 2.5
Marc-Andre Gragnani D 22 30.0 1.8 5.7 7.5 0.3 1.3 0.0 1.6
Mike Weber D 22 32.4 1.7 5.8 7.5 0.3 1.3 0.0 1.6
With the departure of Jaroslav Spacek, the closest thing the Sabres have to a number-one defenseman is 35-year-old Craig Rivet. Rivet is a very good NHL defenseman, but is really a second-pair player. The veteran defenseman's projected GVT of 6.1 is the best the team has available. Only St. Louis and Tampa Bay are worse off in that regard. Beyond Rivet, the Sabres blueline is made up of depth defensemen only. This is the critical weakness for this team and will be difficult to mask for the entire season. It is difficult to build an effective unit out of Lydman, Tallinder, Montador, Andrej Sekera, Chris Butler and Nathan Paetsch.
One area which needs to be addressed is who will be replacing Spacek on the point with the man advantage. Currently, there are no standout candidates. One way to look at this issue is to examine each defenseman's scoring stats by situation. The following table shows the totals for the past three years, broken down into even-strength and power-play situations (short-handed situations are not included, since offense is of no concern to a defenseman in that situation).
Legend:
ESM: Even Strength Minutes
ESP: Even Strength Points
ESP/60: Even Strength Points per 60 Minutes
PPM: Power Play Minutes
PPP: Power Play Points
PPP/60: Power Play Points per 60 Minutes
Name GP ESM ESP ESP/60 PPM PPP PPP/60
Montador 223 2611 44 1.01 254 9 2.13
Paetsch 145 1791 26 0.87 200 13 3.90
Lydman 229 3872 55 0.85 226 10 2.65
Tallinder 184 3035 40 0.79 27 2 4.44
Rivet 209 3249 38 0.70 611 42 4.12
Sekera 106 1771 19 0.64 147 8 3.27
Butler 47 725 6 0.50 7 0 0.00
The two most interesting results are Montador and Rivet. Montador has the highest even-strength scoring rate, but the lower power-play rate. Rivet is almost the opposite, having the highest power-play rate (discounting Tallinder, whose total of 27 power-play minutes over the last three years imply his rate is a fluke) but a low even-strength rate. Montador is a good puck-moving defenseman, but he lacks individual offensive skill. The undrafted defenseman can score points off the rush, which he often begins with a pass, but doesn't have the shot to contribute on the power-play. Rivet, on the other hand, is relatively immobile, contributing more on defense with his physicality than his skill. He does posses a good, hard shot, which helps him on the power-play.
So one power-play slot clearly goes to Rivet, to play along with Vanek, Roy, Pominville and Connolly. As for the second unit, with Spacek and Numminen gone, the Sabres have two spots open for the taking. Sekera and Lydman could split time at one, and do a decent job at it. However, the defenseman with the best all-round offensive skill on the team is clearly Nathan Paetsch, and he would be bring the most value to Buffalo in a power-play role. He has undeniable offensive ability but the 6'1'' southpaw's lack of defensive ability has limited his opportunities. Paetsch's playing time has been dropping the past few seasons. The 26 year old could provide good value to the team if he were used often on the power-play, never when short-handed, and taking a regular turn on the third pairing. With the 6'7'' Tyler Myers likely competing for a spot on the blueline (at that size, how could he not be good?), and despite the fact that his projected GVT per game is fourth-best among team defensemen, Paetsch is likely destined for a 7th/8th defenseman job, where his offensive skill is wasted. The Sabres' power-play will suffer for it.
Goaltenders:
Legend:
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP GGVT SGVT GVT
Ryan Miller G 29 52.3 9.9 0.5 10.4
Patrick Lalime G 35 23.0 0.4 -0.1 0.3
Ryan Miller is fairly old by Sabres standards, but still has a good year left in him. He has shown flashes of brilliance in his career, and VUKOTA pegs him for a solid 10.4 GVT in 52 games. The American-born goaltender has faced over 30 shots per game last year, and should expect more of the same since the defense has not improved in front of him. Due to the poor defense corps, Miller won't be able to steal many games for the Sabres, but he certainly won't lose many for them either.
Patrick Lalime is fine as a backup, and should see about 20 starts this year. Young Jhonas Enroth is the team's only other option. He had a very good rookie year in the AHL in 2008-09, but needs more seasoning in the minors before getting the call to the NHL.
The Future:
Most of the Sabres forwards are on the young side. Roy, Vanek, Pominville, Stafford, Paille and MacArthur are all 25 or younger. Assuming finances don't intervene, they could be kept together as the core of the team for years to come. Nathan Gerbe, Mark Mancari and Tim Kennedy are young and skilled, and on the verge of breaking into the NHL lineup. Gerbe has a disadvantage in that he's very small by NHL standards (5'5''). However, this is a team that has a 5'9'' first-line center, and drafted a similarly-sized Tyler Ennis high in 2008, so they don't seem to have the typical fear of small players that most teams do. Gerbe should get a fair shot.
The Sabres also have a couple of German prospects in Philip Gogulla and Felix Schutz. Neither are terrific prospects, but both could make it as depth forwards, which would double the Sabres' number of German-speaking forwards.
What to Expect:
Basically, expect the same result as last year. The Sabres' forward depth will produce a good number of goals, but their shaky defense will surrender too many for the team to be competitive. Expect another season of missing the playoffs by just a few points. | 
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