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(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 257 (T-7th on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 251 (T-7th on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 280 (29th on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 262 (30th on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 76 (27th in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 88 (20th in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: - 23 (23rd Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: - 9 (20th Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 3.07 (T-8th on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 3.18 (30th on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: -0.11 (20th Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Eastern Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 46.6 %
Eastern Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 18.6 %
Eastern Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 7.2 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 2.7 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 1.1 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
Last season was just another in the long line of losing seasons for the Atlanta Thrashers franchise. GM Don Waddell has been kept on for another season and may have made his best offseason acquisition when he decided to bring in Rick Dudley to join his front office. Dudley does not get much press, but his work in Chicago was underrated and his eye for talent is tremendous. That eye will come in handy because the Thrashers, even with years and years of high draft picks, lack the overall talent level to contend for the Stanley Cup in the next couple of seasons.
Luckily for Thrashers fans, things appear to be moving in the right direction. Unfortunately the team is not in the same advantageous position in terms of young talent as a team like St. Louis or a team like Chicago; so, patience will be a virtue in Georgia for the next few seasons.
Forwards:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Ilya Kovalchuk F 26 79.5 40.7 46.0 86.7 14.4 2.3 -0.1 16.6
Nikolai Antropov F 29 72.0 23.8 29.5 53.3 6.7 2.2 0.0 8.9
Bryan Little F 22 73.4 26.5 23.6 50.1 5.8 1.9 -0.1 7.5
Todd White F 34 69.9 17.6 34.5 52.2 5.7 1.6 0.0 7.3
Slava Kozlov F 37 66.6 17.3 32.9 50.2 6.2 1.1 -0.1 7.2
Rich Peverley F 27 62.5 14.8 24.1 38.8 4.7 2.3 -0.1 6.9
Colby Armstrong F 27 68.8 17.1 19.3 36.5 4.2 1.8 0.0 6.0
Marty Reasoner F 32 64.1 10.7 13.8 24.5 2.1 1.5 0.0 3.5
Joey Crabb F 26 39.8 6.6 8.4 15.0 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.6
Spencer Machacek F 21 28.7 5.4 6.7 12.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.4
Jason Krog F 34 27.4 4.6 5.5 10.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.1
Brett Sterling F 25 30.4 5.1 6.3 11.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.0
Tim Stapleton F 27 28.4 4.9 5.9 10.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9
Josh Gratton F 27 34.1 4.5 6.1 10.6 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.7
Chris Thorburn F 26 60.2 5.8 8.0 13.8 -0.2 0.6 0.0 0.3
Eric Boulton F 33 55.1 3.1 6.3 9.4 -0.7 0.5 0.0 -0.2
Anthony Stewart F 24 48.5 3.3 5.3 8.5 -0.8 0.3 0.0 -0.5
The Thrashers are led by Ilya Kovalchuk; simply put, this is Kovalchuk’s team. Unfortunately for Atlanta fans, Kovalchuk is slated to be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2010. After trading Dany Heatley and Marian Hossa, Don Waddell has let it be known that he wants to keep Kovalchuk around by signing him to a long-term deal. Will the Russian superstar be interested in re-signing? It is hard to say right now, but if the team does show promise and improvement in 2009-10, that will only help Waddell’s chances.
This season, VUKOTA has Kovalchuk pegged for 41 goals, 46 assists and 87 points in 2009-10. His predicted GVT for this upcoming year is 14.4, which would be a slight drop from his 16.4 GVT from last season. Either way, unless he gets injured—which doesn’t happen often—Kovalchuk is one of the few shoe-ins in the NHL for 40 goals.
The key for the Thrashers is surrounding Kovalchuk with capable scorers. Last season, the team did just that with an even strength offensive GVT of 7.8. One of the keys to last season’s success was the rebound year of Slava Kozlov who posted 76 points in 82 games and a GVT of 11.7. Kozlov is 37 years old, so expectations of another terrific season may be a little bit of a reach—and VUKOTA agrees, slotting him in for a 50 point season with a GVT of 7.2. The advantage Kozlov has over other aging forwards is that he relies so much on his intelligence and passing ability that his lack of foot speed or strength really does not hinder him as it does some other older players.
Speaking of veteran forwards who had terrific seasons, Todd White came out of seemingly nowhere to post the highest point total of his career (73 points) at age 33. White is a two-way center that plays a solid defensive game and has decent hands; he also wins faceoffs at over a 50% clip (50.6%). Under John Anderson, White was able to focus more so on offense than he was able to in his past NHL stops—as exhibited by his 4:19 minutes per-game on the power play. VUKOTA does not think White’s season was a fluke, as the projection system has White totalling 52 points next season (which would be his second highest point total since 2002-03) and posting a GVT of 7.3.
This season, the aforementioned three forwards will be joined by offseason signing Nikolai Antropov. Antropov became a whipping boy for Leafs fans during his time in Toronto and after a brief stop in New York, the big Kazak should be excited to play in a more fan-friendly environment. Even with the pressure he faced in his two stops last season, Antropov posted a respectable 28 goals, 59 points and a 7.8 GVT. The 29 year-old is projected to score 24 goals next season according to VUKOTA and actually raise his GVT to 8.9. His size (he uses his body well down low) and skill combination should be a helpful addition to a Thrashers team that still lacks some offensive depth.
Joining the quasi-veterans up front will be youngster Bryan Little. Little came into his own in 2008-09 by posting a somewhat surprising 31 goals in only 16:55 minutes of ice-time per-game. Little is not big but he is fast, has great hands and a wicked shot. After a back and forth rookie season, some thought Little may take more time to come along than originally expected. Well, that thought was thrown out the window when Little tallied 51 points in 79 games last season. VUKOTA projects a similar 50 points in 73 games for Little in 2009-10, however, I think that number is too conservative. Once the 21 year-old gains more confidence, he should be a Thrashers first liner for many years to come—and could very well be a 60+ point player next season.
Rounding out the team’s top-six forwards will be mid-season acquisition Rich Peverley. Was there a more impactful mid-season acquisition last year than Peverley? The former Predators forward (By the way, wasn’t it ironic that a team so starved for offense traded a player who turned into such an offensive force in Atlanta?) scored 13 goals and accumulated 35 points in only 39 games in Atlanta last season. Moreover, only two of Peverley’s goals were on the power play and he posted an impressive +16. Nonetheless, VUKOTA is not totally sold on Peverley as he is projected to post 39 points in 63 games next season, as well as a GVT of 6.9 (down from his 9.1 GVT with Atlanta last season). Even so, Peverley is still only 27 years-old and has hands worth keeping around but for the most part, I agree with the VUKOTA projection.
The bottom six of the Thrashers’ forward lines is anchored by the likes of Colby Armstrong, a rugged winger who plays a mean physical game and has pretty solid hands. Armstrong threw the second most hits (88) on the team in terms of forwards last season. His consistent energy and likeability in the locker room make him a fan favorite.
Along with Armstrong, the Thrashers boast checking center Marty Reasoner. The former Oilers center is a faceoff specialist (he won 52.8% of his draws last season) and logged just over 15:00 minutes of ice-time per-game in 2008-09. In fact, his addition last summer was one of GM Don Waddell’s most shrewd moves. He was a reliable penalty killer and tossed in 14 goals for good measure.
Erik Perrin, one of the team’s most reliable penalty killers and checkers last season has bolted for Europe so expect the likes of Jim Slater, Chris Thorburn, Anthony Stewart and Dan Fritsche to compete for ice-time on the team’s depth lines.
Defensemen:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Pavel Kubina D 32 72.0 9.6 27.6 37.2 5.2 3.7 -0.1 8.8
Zach Bogosian D 19 57.1 9.0 17.9 26.9 4.3 3.4 0.0 7.8
Tobias Enstrom D 25 75.2 6.4 25.3 31.6 3.2 4.0 0.0 7.3
Ron Hainsey D 28 68.2 6.8 25.1 31.8 3.9 2.6 0.0 6.5
Nathan Oystrick D 27 51.2 3.3 9.2 12.6 1.0 1.6 0.0 2.7
Anssi Salmela D 25 40.2 2.2 7.8 10.0 0.6 1.6 0.0 2.2
Scott Lehman D 23 27.7 1.8 5.6 7.3 0.5 1.0 0.0 1.5
Grant Lewis D 24 27.7 1.7 5.5 7.2 0.4 1.0 0.0 1.5
Mike Vernace D 23 32.4 1.5 4.9 6.3 -0.1 0.9 0.0 0.8
Noah Welch D 27 41.9 1.2 3.5 4.7 -0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0
Boris Valabik D 23 45.9 1.0 4.8 5.8 -0.8 0.3 0.0 -0.5
What has long been the weakness of this team, and what was the biggest weakness of this team last season (-13.1 even strength defensive GVT last season) looks to be turning around.
The defense is anchored by the diminutive but cerebral Tobias Enstrom. Enstrom surprised many in 2007-08 with his terrific two-way play. The Swedish defender skates extremely well, makes a great first pass and is positionally sound. He is one of the best defenseman in the NHL that nobody really reads about. Last season, Enstrom posted a +14 on a poor defensive team, along with a GVT of 7.9 (highest of any defensemen on the team). This season, VUKOTA sees Enstrom posting another 32 point season, as well as a GVT of 7.3—a similar number to his GVT in 2008-09.
Joining the 24 year-old Enstrom on the back-end is fellow youngster Zach Bogosian. Bogosian is simply the real deal. He can skate like the wind, has a terrific shot and controls the puck with great ease. It is scary to think that he is not even 20 years old yet. Last season, Bogosian exhibited his potential by posting 19 points in 47 games, along with a GVT of 7.4 (a terrific GVT for an 18 year old). Expect Bogosian to only improve on last year’s totals in 2009-10.
With youth on the back-end, Don Waddell set out to acquire a veteran defenseman and did just that by acquiring Pavel Kubina from the Maple Leafs. Kubina is a huge defenseman who tallied 40 points in 82 games last season for Toronto. While his offensive production is a nice addition to the Thrashers’ blue line, it is not as important to the team as is his veteran presence, size and ability to block shots (133 in 2008-09) and play the body (91 hits in 2008-09). Kubina’s GVT was 6.7 in 2008-09 and VUKOTA sees a GVT improvement up to 8.8 in 2009-10.
So far, the team’s defense does not look so bad. Now let’s examine the team’s bottom-three blue liners. The team’s number four defenseman is Ron Hainsey. Signed from Columbus last summer, Hainsey brings an offensive element to the Thrashers; however his skills may be fairly redundant on this club right now. Hainsey led the Atlanta defense in scoring last season (39 points) and is a very good puck-mover. Unfortunately, his -16 is a fair indictment of his questionable defensive skills. While Hainsey demonstrated his ability to play big minutes last season (over 22:00 minutes per game), I see his workload getting scaled back to around the 18:00-19:00 minute mark this season. His 2008-09 GVT was 3.2, but VUKOTA sees his GVT doubling 6.5. I cannot say I agree with that projection, but the Thrashers can do worse than Hainsey on the back-end.
Competing for the final two spots on the blue line will be the monsterous Boris Valabik, Anssi Salmela (acquired from the Devils for Niclas Havelid at last year’s trade deadline) and Nathan Oystrick.
It appears that the Thrashers defense will be much improved over last season’s dismal showing.
Goaltending:
Legend:
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP GGVT SGVT GVT
Kari Lehtonen G 26 41.4 6.9 0.4 7.2
Ondrej Pavelec G 22 17.5 -0.9 0.0 -0.9
Johan Hedberg G 36 21.2 -3.3 1.0 -2.3
What is the cut-off for goaltenders invited to Thrashers camp this fall? Let’s say four, but who knows? The team has invited Manny Legace to training camp to compete for a job with Kari Lehtonen, Ondrej Pavelec and Johan Hedberg.
Regardless of the invites to camp, the key to this season in between the pipes is Kari Lehtonen. He is big, agile, beyond talented, and just needs to put all of that together. Can he? No one knows, but he is coming into a contract year and has the skill set to post a huge year. The Finnish netminder posted a high G.A.A. (3.06) in 2008-09, but a pretty good save percentage (.911 and his GVT of 7.2 was nothing to scoff at. If he can stay healthy, Lehtonen is capable of exceeding all of these numbers in 2009-10.
Whether the team will opt for another season of Johan Hedberg as the backup is anyone’s guess. Of the three remaining netminders, Pavelec is the most talented, but can never seem to stick in Atlanta. With the team building for the future, having Legace or Hedberg play backup minutes seems counterproductive to the overall plan.
Special Teams:
The Thrashers were not bad on the power play last season—a PP total of 2.2. Conversely, on the penalty kill, the team was awful—posting a -18.2 short-handed total which is quite horrible. With the addition of Kubina to the fold and another season under coach John Anderson, the Thrashers should not be quite as bad on the penalty kill. Additionally, the maturation of Bogosian, Enstrom and the addition of Antropov should help the power play improve, as well.
Conclusion:
Things may not be as dire in Atlanta as some may think. The team is projected to accumulate 85.6 points according to PP’s Bayesian Ratings; this would place the team 20th overall in the National Hockey League—probably as good, if not better, than some would expect. With a 46.6% chance to make the playoffs, the Thrashers will be banking on an improved season from its defensive corps, as well as a solid season from Kari Lehtonen. Of course, if the team has another sideways moving season, Ilya Kovalchuk may no longer be a Thrasher in 2010—so there is extra incentive there for this team to succeed.
Richard Pollock is Editor for the hockey website Illegal Curve.
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