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(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 210 (T-25th on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 222 (T-28th on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 279 (T-27th on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 250 (T-22nd on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 66 (29th in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 80 (26th in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: - 69 (29th Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: - 25 (26th Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 2.73 (28th on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 3.03 (22nd on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: -0.30 (26th Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Eastern Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 29.4 %
Eastern Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 9.6 %
Eastern Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 3.2 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 1.0 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 0.3 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
After a fairly disastrous 2008-09 season, the Tampa Bay Lightning can only move forward. For a team whose expectations were high prior to last season, a 14th place Eastern Conference finish, and a 29th overall finish in the NHL standings left much to be desired.
Over the summer, the Lightning did not make as many moves as it did last offseason, however, the moves the team did make were shrewder than last summer.
Moving forward, the Bolts have a 0.3% chance of winning the Stanley Cup (Puck Prospectus Rating) but there is certainly room to improve on a tumultuous first season under new ownership.
Forwards
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Vincent Lecavalier F 29 77.8 29.1 40.0 69.1 9.4 2.6 0.0 12.0
Martin St. Louis F 34 79.6 24.9 43.7 68.6 8.5 2.9 0.0 11.5
Ryan Malone F 30 69.9 22.3 23.5 45.8 5.3 2.4 0.0 7.7
Alex Tanguay F 30 61.7 16.3 28.0 44.3 5.4 2.3 0.0 7.7
Steven Stamkos F 19 69.4 19.9 22.6 42.6 4.6 1.3 -0.1 5.8
Jeff Halpern F 33 57.6 10.0 13.0 23.0 1.1 1.3 0.0 2.4
Drew Miller F 25 42.1 7.4 9.2 16.6 0.9 1.0 0.0 1.8
Stephane Veilleux F 28 67.1 10.4 9.8 20.2 0.0 1.6 0.0 1.7
Paul Szczechura F 24 42.6 7.0 8.8 15.8 0.7 0.9 0.0 1.6
Steve Downie F 22 41.9 7.1 8.5 15.7 0.8 0.7 0.0 1.5
Brandon Bochenski F 27 34.7 4.9 7.7 12.5 0.4 0.7 0.0 1.1
Zenon Konopka F 28 29.0 4.3 6.0 10.3 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0
Ryan Craig F 27 47.5 3.4 4.9 8.2 -1.0 0.4 0.0 -0.5
Adam Hall F 29 55.1 4.3 5.0 9.3 -1.2 0.5 0.0 -0.6
For a team projected to finish fairly low in the standings, the Lightning boast quite an impressive group of forwards. Starting with Vincent Lecavalier, the 29 year old Stanley Cup winner finished last season with a disappointing 67 point output. Sure his ice-time fell from 22:57 to 20:15 per-game under Barry Melrose/Rick Tocchet, but that still should not account for such a steep drop off in points (he had 92 points in 2007-08). While VUKOTA sees Lecavalier finishing with just over 69 points next season, he certainly possesses the talent to be able to eclipse that total.
Along with Lecavalier, the Lightning also have the non-stop motor of Martin St. Louis. St. Louis, unlike most Tampa forwards, actually had a very good 2008-09 season. He finished the season with 80 points and a +4 +/- rating. That point total was the highest on Tampa by 13 points, and he also led the forward group in ice-time per-game (21:17). VUKOTA predicts that St. Louis’ point total will drop to 68.6 points next season and that his GVT will slot in at 11.7. While Bolts fans would probably like to see a higher prediction, those totals are not terrible.
After the team’s dynamic duo, the next most talented forward on Tampa Bay is young star Steven Stamkos. After a frustrating first half to his rookie campaign, Stamkos turned it up in the second half of last season and many people expect the talented former Sarnia Sting forward to continue that momentum into 2009-10. His 46 points in 79 games certainly were not awful, but some expected something along the lines of a 60 point total; moreover, his plus/minus was -13. That said, Stamkos is beyond talented and should see a significant increase to his 15:00 minutes of ice-time per game in his rookie campaign. VUKOTA predicts Stamkos to finish with just under 43 points this season, but that number seems awfully low to me. Stamkos is far too talented to not exceed (probably by a wide margin) his point totals from last season.
Along with these three supremely talented forwards, Tampa Bay made a terrific recent acquisition, signing former Flames, Avalanche and Canadiens forward Alex Tanguay. After posting 41 points in 50 games last season, the Canadiens and Tanguay decided to move in opposite directions. This led to Tanguay waiting around for virtually the entire summer until he decided that the Lightning were the proper fit for his talent. The recruiting job of Vincent Lecavalier surely did not hurt either. VUKOTA has fairly strong expectations of Tanguay, however, his injury history leaves the prediction falling in at 44.3 points in 61.7 games. That total is not overly high but it does predict his points-per-game total to be 0.71. So, that is certainly a respectable total and one that Tanguay may be able to exceed playing alongside Lecavalier and St. Louis. The thing about Tanguay is that he is a tremendous passer with great on-ice vision, so if he is playing with snipers such as Lecavalier and St. Louis, his passing ability is far more important that it was last season on a team like Montreal without said snipers. Tanguay also has a projected GVT of 7.7.
With such a skilled top-four forward group, Ryan Malone becomes an even more important part of this team’s top-six. Coming off the signing of a huge long-term deal in the summer of 2008, Malone struggled in his first season outside Pittsburgh, posting 26 goals but only 45 points in 70 games. However, looking more closely, was Malone really struggling? He actually posted very similar totals to his last season in Pittsburgh—27 goals, 24 assists in 51 games. Funny enough, VUKOTA sees an almost identical total for the aggressive son of former NHLer Greg Malone—45.8 points in 69.9 games in 2009-10. So, expectations have to be curbed for the likeable Malone. The intangibles and leadership skills he brings to the table are important, and sometimes mask his point totals which most people always seem surprised to find are so low. It should also be noted that Malone was tied for the highest plus/minus on the team with a +4.
Considering the Bolts’ talent level at forward, it is quite amazing to think that this team finished with an even strength offensive GVT of -17.6. In fact, that offensive GVT was a bigger Achilles heel to the Bolts than the team’s even strength defensive or netminding GVT.
After the team’s impressive top-five forward group, there is quite a big fall-off to the next level. Jeff Halpern is a center (33-years old) who brings a needed veteran presence to the team’s depth lines. He can contribute some on offense, but his face-off percentage of 52.8% was second best on the Bolts last season and that skill, along with his leadership (Halpern wears the “A”), will make Halpern an important third line center.
Unfortunately for Bolts fans, the likes of Adam Hall (-0.6 projected GVT), Ryan Craig (-0.5 projected GVT), Steve Downie (1.5 projected GVT), Stephane Veilleux (1.7 projected GVT), Drew Miller (1.8 projected GVT), Brandon Bochenski (1.1 projected GVT) and Todd Fedoruk (0 projected GVT) fill out the remaining roster spots up front. Sure some of those players possess nice speed (Downie, Veilleux and Miller), and others possess little speed but good hands (Hall and Bochenski), but that is not a bottom six that contains a lot of talented/dangerous players.
Defensemen
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Mattias Ohlund D 33 62.7 4.8 16.9 21.7 1.9 4.0 0.1 5.9
Paul Ranger D 25 56.4 4.8 15.9 20.7 2.0 2.8 0.0 4.8
Andrej Meszaros D 24 60.1 5.0 17.8 22.9 2.2 2.6 0.0 4.8
Kurtis Foster D 28 40.8 3.4 10.8 14.1 1.5 2.2 0.0 3.7
Lukas Krajicek D 26 59.9 2.9 13.1 16.1 0.8 2.2 0.0 3.1
Matt Walker D 29 54.3 1.8 9.5 11.3 0.0 2.7 0.0 2.7
Vladimir Mihalik D 22 32.0 2.0 6.9 8.8 0.7 1.0 0.0 1.7
Ty Wishart D 21 29.7 1.9 6.1 8.0 0.6 1.1 0.0 1.7
Kevin Quick D 21 30.7 1.9 6.2 8.2 0.4 1.2 0.0 1.6
David Hale D 28 49.3 2.0 6.3 8.3 -0.1 1.5 0.0 1.3
Matt Smaby D 25 45.4 1.1 5.6 6.6 -0.9 1.1 0.0 0.2
Victor Hedman D 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
While many thought the Lightning’s defense was horrible last season, as mentioned above, the team’s forward group actually had a worse even strength GVT (-17.6) than the team’s defense did at even strength (-15.0).
With a revolving door of defensemen in Tampa last season, it was difficult to keep track of who was playing where and with whom. Luckily for Bolts fans, GM Brian Lawton set out to improve the team’s defense over the offseason and he accomplished just that.
The most important move this entire offseason was Tampa’s addition of Victor Hedman in the Entry Draft. Hedman is expected to be a number one defenseman in the NHL for a long, long time and is even expected to crack the team’s lineup this season. He can skate, move the puck, play a physical game and see the ice like few young defenseman. Toss in his size and you have a dominating defenseman for years and years to come.
To mentor Hedman, the Lightning signed veteran Swedish defenseman Mattias Ohlund. VUKOTA projects Ohlund to finish with a GVT of 5.9, a respectable total and a total that is a welcome addition to the team’s back-end. His projected point total of 22 points is not overly important, as that is not what the team is bringing him to Tampa for. Personally, I believe Ohlund has lost half-a-step over the years, but his leadership ability and willingness to compete is unquestionable. Simply put, he’s a smart defenseman who is not afraid to throw around his body.
After the two big Swedes, the Bolts have highly skilled defenseman Andrej Meszaros. Due to the fact that he has already been playing in the NHL for a few seasons, fans sometimes forget that Meszaros is only 23 years old. Considering his terrific skill set-skating ability, a hard shot and strong passing skills—the Lightning expected much more from the former Senator. This season, VUKOTA predicts a 4.8 GVT and a 23 point, 60 game season; while that is nothing to write home about, it still is an improvement over his 2.2 GVT, 52 game, 16 point season of 2008-09.
To fill out the final three spots on defense, the Bolts have Kurtis Foster (3.2 GVT last season, 3.7 projected GVT), whose big shot and puck skills are an asset—however his skating is his biggest drawback. Foster is joined on the depth chart by the smooth skating Lukas Krajicek (1.9 GVT last season, 3.1 projected GVT). As well, big puck-mover Paul Ranger (1.3 GVT last season, 4.8 projected GVT), big and physical Matt Walker (1.9 GVT last season, 2.7 projected GVT), and youngsters Matt Smaby (-2.8 GVT last season, 0.2 projected GVT), Matt Lashoff (-0.7 GVT last season, 1.9 projected GVT) and Mike Lundin (-1.0 GVT last season, 0.9 projected GVT) will compete for the remaining NHL roster spots.
Goaltending
Legend:
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP GGVT SGVT GVT
Mike Smith G 27 40.3 6.4 -0.8 5.5
Antero Niittymaki G 29 30.6 4.6 0.1 4.6
Riku Helenius G 21 14.2 1.3 0.0 1.3
In between the pipes the Lightning were actually very good. The team had an even strength goaltending GVT of 5.8 which was the only positive aspect of the team’s five-on-five game. In fact, the numbers were not even close (-17.6 for offense and -15.0 for defense). So, heading into this upcoming season the team feels very confident in the ability of Mike Smith (11.8 GVT last season) to be the man between the pipes. Last season, Smith posted a .915 save percentage when starting and a 57.5 quality start percentage. However, VUKOTA sees Smith coming back to the pack a little bit (projected GVT of 5.5) and taking into account Smith’s concussion issues, the disparity between the team’s goaltending versus its offense/defense may not be as significant as it was last season.
Backing up Smith this season will be former Flyers netminder Antero Niittymaki. Niittymaki, while injury prone is an upgrade over last season’s backups. His projected GVT slots in at 4.6, but there are questions about his health.
Overall, the Bolts have a talented netminding duo, unfortunately both netminders have injury issues that could very well surface this season and leave the Lightning with a massive hole in net.
Special Teams
In terms of special teams, the Lightning, like in just about every other category last season, were quite awful. The team’s PP Team GVT was -4.8—which is not impressive. Even worse, the team’s PK Team GVT was last in the league at a whopping -28.3. It would really be hard for the Lightning to post a worse total than -28.3 on the penalty kill next season—yes, it was that bad.
Looking forward to this season, the Bolts should improve in both areas. Many consider coaching to be a big factor in these two aspects of the game and there was too much change and turnover last season. Remember, the team had to change styles from John Tortorella to Barry Melrose and then once Melrose was fired early on in the season, the team had to adjust to Rick Tocchet. Expect the Bolts to improve in both areas due to a higher comfort level with the coaching staff, and because of the players they brought into the fold—with Ohlund probably being the most important acquisition in that aspect.
Conclusion
While the Bolts are pegged to accumulate 80.4 points according to the Puck Prospectus Ratings, that is still a vast improvement over last season’s paltry 66 point season. That said, 80.4 points still slots the Lightning in at 26th overall in the National Hockey League—certainly nothing to write home about.
All in all, the Lightning have more talent than a usual team predicted to finish in the bottom part of the league, so if the team does see turnaround performances from a number of its key players, it is certainly possible the Lightning could exceed expectations.
Richard Pollock is Editor for the hockey website Illegal Curve.
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