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(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 208 (27th on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 222 (T-28th on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 252 (24th on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 254 (26th on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 79 (T-25th in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 80 (T-28th in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: - 44 (27th Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: - 29 (28th Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 2.74 (27th on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 3.07 (T-26th on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: -0.33 (28th Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Western Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 29.4 %
Western Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 10.0 %
Western Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 3.4 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 1.1 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 0.3 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
A few years ago, a friend of mine got some free courtside tickets to a Golden State Warriors game. I was happy to go to the game, except for one problem: the opponent was none other than the Milwaukee Bucks. He asked me “are they still in the league?” Well, I have a feeling if my friend got his hands on some Coyotes tickets this year, he’d say the same thing.
The NHL’s 12-season tenure in Phoenix has had so few bright spots on the ice that a return to Winnipeg would almost make sense: a 10-20 record in the playoffs and five first-round exits, followed by four last place finishes in the Pacific Division over five years. Off the ice, things have been substantially worse – so much so that the Coyotes are arguably the poster child for what the NHL has done wrong over the past 15 years.
This offseason, I’ve done my best not to follow the daily updates in the Coyotes bankruptcy saga, preferring just to see the final results. Presumably they’ll still be playing in Phoenix to start the season, with Gretzky coaching, but you never know – stranger things have happened. What’s not in doubt, unfortunately for Phoenix fans, is that the Coyotes will have a bad team in 2009-10.
Legend:
TOI: Time On Ice
SF/60: Shots For per 60 Minutes
SA/60: Shots Against per 60 Minutes
Statistical Summary
TOI Rank SF/60 Rank SA/60 Rank
5v5 46.7 4 26.8 29 31.3 24
5v4 6.6 10 49.0 19 10.8 29
4v5 5.2 30 8.0 19 54.9 23
4v4 1.5 28 30.3 22 37.2 28
Make no mistake, the Phoenix Coyotes stunk up the joint in 2008-09. With an offense in the bottom third in the league and one of the worst defensive corps, this is a team that needed an offseason makeover. What didn’t happen in the offseason, not surprisingly, was that much-needed significant upgrade of the roster.
The Coyotes’ major free agent score was Adrian Aucoin, who may slot in as Phoenix’s #1 defensemen, and represents a major upgrade over Dmitri Kalinin, who departed for the KHL. Other changes amount to nibbling around the edges – the Coyotes moved out a bunch of 3rd- and 4th-liners and brought in more of the same. The most notable improvements would be the potentially high-reward pickup of Radim Vrbata from Tampa, and the addition of penalty-killer Vernon Fiddler from Nashville. The main upside for the Coyotes this year comes from the development of a quintet of young forwards – Mueller, Hanzal, Tikhonov, Boedker and Prucha – all recent draft picks.
Our projections show Phoenix with perhaps a 3-win improvement in the standings. They’ll be slightly better offensively, but look for them to keep hemorrhaging goals in their own end.
Even-Strength Defense
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
WAR*: Wins Above Replacement
COR: Corsi Rating
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT WAR* COR*
Ed Jovanovski 33 70.1 7.9 26.9 34.8 4.5 3.4 0.0 7.8 3.4 -3.2
Adrian Aucoin 36 65.7 7.2 23.0 30.2 3.8 3.6 0.0 7.4 3.2 +13.3
Keith Yandle 23 63.4 5.8 20.9 26.7 3.3 3.1 0.0 6.4 2.8 -3.4
Zbynek Michalek 27 69.4 4.9 16.9 21.8 1.9 3.3 0.0 5.3 2.3 -14.3
Jim Vandermeer 29 51.9 2.0 8.8 10.8 0.1 2.1 0.0 2.2 0.9 +11.1
Kurt Sauer 28 59.3 1.3 6.4 7.7 -1.0 2.7 0.0 1.7 0.7 -18.8
David Schlemko 22 28.9 1.9 6.4 8.3 0.5 1.0 0.0 1.6 0.7 +14.0
*Proprietary statistic from Behind The Net
*Corsi Rating measures the number of shots directed at the net while a player was on the ice at even strength, excluding empty net situations. A player who shoots at the opposing net and has a teammate block a shot at his own team's end of the ice at even strength will have a Corsi Rating of + 0.0.
There was once a time when Ed Jovanovski was a #1 defenseman. Unfortunately for Phoenix, that was a long time ago. Even more unfortunately, Jovanovski is still being paid like a #1 defenseman for the next two years, chewing up more dollars than the rest of the defensive corps combined. In his absence, Kurt Sauer and Zbynek Michalek took on opponents’ top lines all season and ended up with the Corsi numbers (-18.3 and -14.3) to prove it, while Jovanovski got easier assignments and four minutes per game of PP time, allowing him to post superficially impressive scoring numbers. Even at age 36, Aucoin should shoulder some of that responsibility, and if he doesn’t, he’s signed to a low-risk one-year deal.
Even-Strength Offense
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
WAR*: Wins Above Replacement
COR: Corsi Rating
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT WAR* COR*
Shane Doan 33 79.8 25.2 39.1 64.3 8.2 3.2 0.0 11.4 4.9 -8.2
Matthew Lombardi 27 67.2 14.5 25.7 40.2 4.4 2.3 0.0 6.7 2.9 +2.7
Peter Mueller 21 72.2 18.1 27.4 45.5 4.0 1.9 0.1 6.0 2.6 -7.3
Scottie Upshall 26 63.0 14.2 18.5 32.7 3.6 1.6 0.0 5.2 2.2 +1.1
Martin Hanzal 22 67.8 12.4 22.0 34.4 2.7 1.9 0.0 4.6 2.0 -5.8
Mikkel Boedker 20 71.7 13.0 18.2 31.2 1.2 1.9 0.0 3.1 1.3 -9.1
Petr Prucha 27 53.1 8.1 12.7 20.8 1.0 1.4 0.0 2.3 1.0 +2.8
Vernon Fiddler 29 65.8 9.4 10.2 19.6 0.0 1.7 0.0 1.7 0.7 -6.7
Joel Perrault 26 37.0 6.9 8.3 15.2 0.9 0.8 0.0 1.6 N/A N/A
Kevin Porter 23 45.6 7.9 9.2 17.1 0.6 1.1 0.0 1.6 0.7 -11.5
Daniel Winnik 24 55.8 6.9 9.0 15.8 -0.1 1.3 0.0 1.2 0.5 -1.0
Jeff Hoggan 31 27.6 4.3 6.1 10.3 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.1 N/A N/A
Kyle Turris 20 60.6 10.5 13.9 24.4 0.1 1.0 0.0 1.1 0.5 -14.7
Lauri Korpikoski 23 59.5 7.0 10.2 17.2 -0.5 1.4 0.0 0.8 0.4 -7.9
*Proprietary statistic from Behind The Net
*Corsi Rating measures the number of shots directed at the net while a player was on the ice at even strength, excluding empty net situations. A player who shoots at the opposing net and has a teammate block a shot at his own team's end of the ice at even strength will have a Corsi Rating of + 0.0.
Phoenix had a group of two-way forwards last year – bad in both directions. The Coyotes were out-shot by almost five shots per game at even-strength, but they made basically no effort in the offseason to improve their forward lines (Vrbata and Fiddler figure to contribute most on special teams). Part of it was a budget limited by a lack of revenue and a lack of certainty, but there was a justifiable hope that Phoenix’s young forwards will improve. It’s hard to know what Coyotes management was expecting, but our VUKOTA projection system sees them as just one win better as a group than they were last year.
Goaltending
Legend:
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP GGVT SGVT GVT
Ilya Bryzgalov G 29 50.0 5.9 -0.5 5.4
Jason LaBarbera G 29 30.0 1.6 -1.0 0.6
Josh Tordjman G 24 14.1 0.3 0.0 0.3
What looked like a brilliant waiver pick-up two seasons ago turned into a pumpkin when Ilya Bryzgalov came back down to his established level of performance in 2008-09. Now Phoenix is just another team over-paying for a league-average goaltender for the next two years. On the bright side, a league-average goalie doesn’t make the rest of Phoenix’s team any weaker, and backup Jason LaBarbera figures to bring the same level of performance for one-quarter the price.
Power-Play
Phoenix was bad on the PP last year. The main unit -Doan/Mueller/Reinprecht/Jovanovski/Yandle – was among the least efficient in the league, and their numbers were pulled down even further by a below-average shooting percentage. Even worse, they almost led the league – besting only Tampa – in shots allowed on the power-play; only an extremely lucky .959 save percentage saved them from leading the league in short-handed goals allowed.
The acquisition of Aucoin moves Yandle further down the depth chart, and would, on its own, likely bring the Coyotes PP to near the league-average. Losing Steven Reinprecht doesn’t impact the PP following the acquisition of Matthew Lombardi, and a rejuvenated Radim Vrbata might give them an effective unit. Regardless of what happens, don’t expect Phoenix to be 28th in the league in PP% again.
Penalty-Kill
Now this was ugly. The Coyotes finished 29th in the league in goals allowed, ahead of only Toronto, abetted by weak goaltending. They gave up so many power-play goals that they actually spent less time killing penalties than any other team. The first line PK – Winnik/Hanzal/Sauer/Michalek – got absolutely abused last season, with Winnik, Hanzal and Sauer all finishing in the bottom 10% of the league in goals allowed. Adding Aucoin and Fiddler to the mix should improve things somewhat, but the core of last year’s catastrophe remains intact.
Big Picture
There were a few changes here and there, but expect the same result as last year. This is a team that doesn't score, defend, nor goaltend very well and nothing suggests a significant change in any category going into the 2009-10 season. If Shane Doan at 33 years of age can defy the odds and transform from a good player into Alexander Ovechkin, and Ilya Bryzgalov finds a way to goaltend like Tomas Vokoun, then maybe, just maybe the Coyotes could get a 6, 7 or 8 seed in the Western Conference. More likely, they'll be in contention for drafting Taylor Hall come June 2010.
Gabriel Desjardins is an author of Puck Prospectus and runs the statistical hockey site behindthenet.ca. You can contact him at info at behindthenet.ca. | 
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