June 10, 2009
NHL Entry Draft
Drafting Forwards

by Richard Pollock

Last week, we examined the output of defensemen drafted in the first rounds through the seventh rounds from the years 1994-2004. For the most part, the findings were fairly predictable, with first round defensemen being more valuable than the rest. However, what did stand out was just how much better first round draft picks were than everyone else. Being that the difference for defensemen was substantial, this week we are going to look at the breakdown for forwards drafted between the same years.

Here are the numbers:

1994	  Players Drafted Games Played	Goals	Assists	 Points	Penalty Minutes
1st Round	14	    6721	1301	1652	 2953	  6932
2nd Round	19	    5477	 834	1159	 1993	  4587
3rd Round	13	    3422	 668	 836	 1504	  2850
4th Round	15	    2055	 472	 605	 1077	  1352
5th Round	10	     384	  64	 111	  175	   252
6th Round	15	    2782	 653	 911	 1564	  2482
7th Round	15	    1325	 102	 147	  249	  1484

1995	  Players Drafted Games Played  Goals	Assists	 Points	Penalty Minutes
1st Round	13	    6126	1617	2120	 3737	  3453
2nd Round	17	    2429	 344	 529	  873	  2389
3rd Round	15	    2386	 392	 560	  952	  1591
4th Round	16	    3382	 647	1135	 1782	  1530
5th Round	11	     904	 163	 276	  439	   611
6th Round	14	     692	  60	  73	  133	   593
7th Round	15	    1512	 147	 244	  391	  2203

1996	  Players Drafted Games Played	Goals	Assists  Points	Penalty Minutes
1st Round	12	    5371	1062	1477	 2539	  2864
2nd Round	15	    2745	 414	 561	  975	  1794
3rd Round	19	    2575	 437	 462	  899	  2647
4th Round	18	    1532	 174	 258	  432	  1031
5th Round	13	     179	   8	   2	   10	   333
6th Round	12	    1005	 146	 217	  363	   385
7th Round	13	    2083	 202	 299	  501	  1633

1997	  Players Drafted Games Played	Goals	Assists	 Points	Penalty Minutes
1st Round	16	    5848	1662	2312	 3974	  4250
2nd Round	17	    1520	 234	 351	  585	   783
3rd Round	18	    1377	 202	 308	  510	  1274
4th Round	12	    1236	 113	 188	  301	  1044
5th Round	16	    1613	 297	 396	  693	  1064
6th Round	11	    1246	 227	 337	  564	   890
7th Round	16	    1315	 177	 300	  477	  1802
     
1998	  Players Drafted Games Played	Goals	Assists  Points Penalty Minutes
1st Round	15	    6188	1438	2172	 3610	  4658
2nd Round	20	    2883	 528	 651	 1179	  2195
3rd Round	16	    2672	 593	 885	 1478	  1885
4th Round	17	    2226	 367	 529	  896	  1740
5th Round	16	     660	 103	 150	  253	   395
6th Round	18	    2419	 484	 770	 1254	  2446
7th Round	16	     527	  91	 161	  252	   166

1999	  Players Drafted Games Played	Goals	Assists  Points Penalty Minutes
1st Round	17	    4390	858	1517	 2375	  2210
2nd Round	19	    1059	110	 138	  248	   500
3rd Round	14	    2365	400	 510	  910	  1268
4th Round	17	     757	161	 158	  319	   792
5th Round	15	     273	 29	  49	   78	   141
6th Round	18	     147	  8	  13	   21	    88
7th Round	19	    1750	433	 618	 1051	  1062

2000	  Players Drafted Games Played	Goals	Assists  Points Penalty Minutes
1st Round	21	    4930	1288	1489	 2777	  3970
2nd Round	19	    2068	 314	 396	  710	  1308
3rd Round	22	    1255	 129	 188	  317	   898
4th Round	16	     233	  52	  68	  120	    74
5th Round	18	     581	  49	  46	   95	   840
6th Round	13	     418	  22	  19	   41	   860
7th Round	20	    1027	 171	 276	  447	   740

2001	  Players Drafted Games Played	Goals	Assists	 Points	Penalty Minutes
1st Round	18	    4799	1105	1603	 2708	  3041
2nd Round	21	    2103	 439	 642	 1081	  1429
3rd Round	20	    1299	 240	 260	  500	  1084
4th Round	18	     456	  55	  73	  128	   605
5th Round	17	     751	  89	 144	  233	   422
6th Round	15	     809	 155	 248	  403	   385
7th Round	16	     816	 162	 149	  311	   715

2002	  Players Drafted Games Played	Goals	Assists	 Points	Penalty Minutes
1st Round	19	    3622	815	980	 1795	  2627
2nd Round	18	    1367	249	377	  626	   723
3rd Round	18	    1229	193	289	  482	   720
4th Round	19	     221	 6	 15	   21	   373
5th Round	15	     292	 29	 35	   64	   197
6th Round	14	     480	 42	 84	  126	   456
7th Round	22	     157	 7	 15	   22	   209

2003	  Players Drafted Games Played	Goals	Assists	 Points	Penalty Minutes
1st Round	22	    5354	1501	1833	 3334	  3629
2nd Round	25	    1772	 326	 454	  780	  1111
3rd Round	21	     622	  75	  98	  173	  1356
4th Round	17	      57	   4	   5	    9	    26
5th Round	18	     699	 127	 164	  291	   267
6th Round	14	     157	  11	  19	   30	    84
7th Round	18	     416	  93	 104	  197	   158

2004	  Players Drafted Games Played  Goals   Assists  Points Penalty Minutes
1st Round	17	    2253	662	851	 1513	  1136
2nd Round	23	     865	172	261	  433	   507
3rd Round	18	     532	108	 86	  194	   343
4th Round	24	     481	 86	 86	  172	   236
5th Round	19	     331	 56	 71	  127	   385
6th Round	17	     114	  7	 10	   17	   153
7th Round	18	     112	 11	 25	   36	    91

There you have the year-by-year numbers, which are interesting to examine, but let’s calculate the totals for 1994-2004 to give us a better overall view.

1994-2004 Players Drafted Games Played	Goals	Assists	 Points Penalty Minutes
1st Round	184	    55602	13309	18006	 31315	  38770
2nd Round	213	    24288	 3964	 5519	  9483	  17326
3rd Round	194	    19734	 3437	 4482	  7919	  15916
4th Round	189	    12636	 2137	 3120	  5257	   8803
5th Round	168	     6667	 1014	 1444	  2458	   4907
6th Round	161	    10269	 1815	 2701	  4516	   8822
7th Round	188	    11040	 1596	 2338	  3934	  10263

Not surprisingly, the first round is once again dominant. Now that seems obvious enough, but how much more/less dominant were first round forwards than the rest of the drafted forwards, as compared to defensemen?

When looking at defensemen, the first round defensemen drafted between 1994 and 2004 almost had more points (9143) than the next six rounds combined (9191). In fact, the first round defensemen produced 3.9 points for every point that the second round defensemen produced, 4.9 points for every point that the third round defensemen produced and 5.7 points for every point that the fourth round defensemen produced.

Now, let’s take a look at the ratios for forwards. Once again, first round draft picks (31315) almost out-produced all of the other rounds combined (33567); albeit not as close as the defensemen percentage was. In terms of ratios, the first round forwards produced 3.3 points for every point that the second round forwards produced, 3.95 for every point that the third round forwards produced and 5.95 for every point that the fourth round forwards produced.

Before examining the above ratios, we would be remiss if we did not point out that the fifth round was where we saw the highest to lowest order come to an end, as the sixth and seventh round forwards produced more points the fifth round forwards. That, however, is not surprising because as we have studied before, late round draft picks do not really carry much more value than undrafted free agents.

Moving onto the above ratios, once again we see that first round forward draft picks are just that valuable to an organization. These players produce at levels that are heads and shoulders above even the second round forwards selected. So while first round forwards and defensemen are both very dominating, what about the limited separation between second round forward production and third round forward production?

Looking at the ratios above, second round forwards produce about 1.19 as many points as third round forwards. Additionally, third round forwards produce 1.50 as many points fourth round forwards. As for defensemen, the second round defensemen produce about 1.25 as many points as third round defensemen. Moreover, third round defensemen produce 1.15 as many points as fourth round defensemen.

So, what does this all mean? Well, the numbers really are not that different. In truth, they are actually very similar. First round draft picks are worth all the hype they receive—they really are that much better than everyone else. After the first round, the ratios lessen dramatically and the difference between the second and third round draft picks, while apparent, is not overly substantial. The same can be said for the difference between third and fourth round draft picks.

All in all, if your favourite team is trading its first round draft picks, it better be sure it is getting a good return, as that pick has significantly more value than the rest of your team’s draft picks.

Richard Pollock is an author of Puck Prospectus. You can contact Richard by clicking here or click here to see Richard's other articles. Richard is also Editor for the hockey website Illegal Curve.