May 30, 2009
NHL Playoffs, Third Round
Detroit Red Wings vs. Chicago Blackhawks, Game 5

by Timo Seppa

While I was impressed by the drama of a scoreless game through two periods, and later by Chicago’s answering Detroit’s go-ahead goal, I couldn’t escape the thought that I was watching two teams make extremely inefficient attacks all game long. Maybe both teams were depleted by the breakneck pace of the series, not to mention the absence of their most valuable skaters – Pavel Datsyuk and Nicklas Lidstrom for the Red Wings and Martin Havlat for the Blackhawks.

Pavel Datsyuk (+17.1 offensive GVT, +7.3 defensive GVT, +24.4 total GVT) hasn’t played up to expectations through the entire postseason; there was some thought all along that an injury could be behind the lack of performance. Datsyuk, a Hart Trophy finalist, has put up four spectacular seasons in a row for Detroit:

Pavel Datysuk – Total and per game statistics, 2005-6 through 2008-9

Season	Age	G	A	P	+/-	G/GP	A/GP	P/GP  +/- per GP
2005-6	27	28 	59 	87 	+26	0.37 	0.79 	1.16  +0.35
2006-7	28 	27 	60 	87 	+36	0.34 	0.76 	1.10  +0.46
2007-8	29 	31 	66 	97 	+41	0.38 	0.80 	1.18  +0.50
2008-9	30 	32 	65 	97 	+35	0.40 	0.80 	1.20  +0.43

The Russian winger’s levels of Goals per game, Assists per game, Points per game and plus/minus have been both outstanding and very consistent over that span. This season, his +24.4 total GVT was 6th in the NHL and 3rd among non-goaltenders. Therefore, all it takes is a glance to see the stark difference in his postseason stats:

Pavel Datysuk – Total and per game statistics, playoffs 2008-9

Season	GP	G	A	P	+/-	G/GP	A/GP	P/GP	+/- /GP
2008-9 	13	1 	6 	7 	+4	0.08	0.46	0.54	+0.31

Datsyuk’s production has been miserable compared to what we expect of him, particularly in falling a third of a goal per game below his regular season pace. Particularly, his shooting percentage has been a puzzling 2.1%. In addition, his lack of production may be affecting drop-offs in other players’ production, such as that of linemate Marian Hossa (+14.0 offensive GVT, +5.7 defensive GVT, +19.7 total GVT). For the regular season, Hossa’s GVT ranked 13th overall, and 9th among non-goaltenders.

Marian Hossa – Total and per game statistics, regular season vs. playoffs 2008-9

Season	 GP	G	A	P	+/-	G/GP	A/GP	P/GP	+/- /GP
Regular  74	40 	31 	71 	+27	0.54	0.42	0.96	+0.40
Playoffs 16	6	6	12	+5	0.38	0.38	0.75	+0.31

Hossa’s shortfall in the playoffs has not been as dramatic as his fellow Russian linemate’s has been; it is reasonable to infer that it may stem from Datsyuk’s issues in large part. Further highlighting the fact is that the former Penguin seems to have awoken in the past three games without the injured Datsyuk, posting 2 Goals, 3 Assists, 5 Points, +3 plus/minus. A few weeks ago, it would have been hard to imagine that you could say that someone would play significantly better without being paired with Pavel Datsyuk, but it looks like that is the case right now:

Marian Hossa – Total and per game statistics, playoffs 2008-9

	        GP   G	   A	P	+/-	G/GP	A/GP	P/GP	+/- /GP
With Datsyuk	13   4 	   3 	7 	+2	0.31	0.23	0.54	+0.15
Without Datsyuk	3    2	   3	5	+3	0.67	1.00	1.67	+1.00

Obviously, Hossa would not continue on a 1.67 Points per game and +1 plus/minus per game pace over the course of a larger sample of games, but the point of the comparison is to see the drop-off in production when paired with Datsyuk this postseason and then to see an immediate return to acceptable levels when paired with other linemates. This puts Red Wings’ coaching staff at a real quandary, certainly not wanting to play without Hart Trophy candidate Datsyuk’s +24.4 GVT, but with enough proof in his diminished performance levels this postseason to put the brakes on rushing him back until he is right.

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Chicago may have tired over the course of the series, losing some focus and ability to make the extra effort. The effects on the score of that fatigue may be hard to quantify, but subjectively, they may have manifested in the “inefficient attacks” observed in Game 5. Take a look at the percentage of attempted shots that made it on goal –reflecting both shooting accuracy and making it past the defense’s efforts to block them– and the percentage of attempts blocked:

Detroit Red Wings – Percentage of attempts on goal and percentage of attempts blocked

	Result	SOG	A/B	MS	Attempts	On goal%	Block %
Game 1	5-2	33	20	11	64		52%		31%
Game 2	3-2	38	20	17	75		51%		27%
Game 3	3-4	30	15	6	51		59%		29%
Game 4	6-1	33	6	11	50		66%		12%
Game 5	2-1	46	12	9	67		69%		18%

As the series wore on, Chicago was blocking a smaller percentage of shot attempts; Detroit was getting a higher percentage of attempts on goal.

Chicago Blackhawks – Percentage of attempts on goal and percentage of attempts blocked

	Result	SOG	A/B	MS	Attempts	On goal%	Block 
Game 1	2-5	32	7	5	44		73%		16%
Game 2	2-3	39	13	15	67		58%		19%
Game 3	4-3	27	9	5	41		66%		22%
Game 4	1-6	28	11	8	47		60%		23%
Game 5	1-2	31	13	11	55		56%		24%

The reverse was true when the Blackhawks were attacking. The Red Wings blocked an increasing percentage of shot attempts as the series progressed, and the Blackhawks got a decreasing percentage of attempts on goal. The performance of both teams points towards Chicago tiring in the series, mentally and physically.

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Were the Blackhawks inefficient in their attacks? Lets look at which ‘Hawks were making the most shot attempts:

Chicago Blackhawks – Most shot attempts in Game 5; Regular season shooting percentage

Name			SOG	A/B	MS	Attempts	S%
Troy Brouwer		5	3	1	9		7.9%
Kris Versteeg		3	3	1	7		15.8%
Andrew Ladd		4	0	1	5		7.7%
Colin Fraser		4	1	0	5		9.0%
Patrick Sharp		2	1	1	4		14.1%
Dave Bolland		3	0	1	4		17.1%
Duncan Keith		0	1	2	3		4.6%
Cam Barker		1	2	0	3		5.9%
Niklas Hjalmarsson	2	0	0	2		6.7%
Jonathan Toews	        1	1	0	2		17.4%
Adam Burish		1	1	0	2		7.2%
Brian Campbell		1	0	1	2		6.5%
Patrick Kane		1	0	1	2		9.8%
Brent Seabrook		1	0	0	1		6.1%
Matt Walker		0	0	1	1		1.2%
Samuel Pahlsson	        1	0	0	1		8.0%
Dustin Byfuglien	0	0	1	1		7.4%
Ben Eager		1	0	0	1		13.8%
Martin Havlat (injured)	0	0	0	0		11.6%

While there were enough attempts on goal by accurate enough Blackhawks’ shooters to expect 3.2 Goals scored in Game 5 (Detroit would have been expected to score 4.0 Goals in Game 5 by a similar calculation), seeing 19 of Chicago’s 55 attempts –over a third– made by Troy Brouwer, Andrew Ladd and Colin Fraser just doesn’t sit well. This is not equivalent to those shots being taken by Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane (and the injured Martin Havlat); Toews and Kane accounted for only 4 attempts, or less than a tenth. The 20 year old Kane (9 Goals, 5 Assists, 14 Points, a team worst -9 plus/minus) has been a Patrick Marleau-like enigma offensively, recording only 34 SOG in 16 games, while putting home an impressive 26.5% of them; as he recorded 254 SOG in 80 GP in the regular season, the shortfall was 1 SOG per game. Perhaps the “easiest” fixes to the Blackhawks’ playoffs performance could have been summed up with “Kane shoots, Khabibulin sits”. The youngster’s shortfalls were particularly apparent against the Red Wings, taking only 6 SOG in 5 games, and posting a -6 plus/minus. Maybe the 2007 draft’s 1st overall pick is just too green to perform in the crucible of the playoffs. We’ll see what the young man can do in his age-21 season, when much will be expected of the Blackhawks.

Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus. You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.