February 1, 2013
Up and Coming
Saskatoon Westerns, 2001-02

by Iain Fyffe

Looking at the 2001 Project-a-Tron draft rankings, it seems clear in retrospect that we have NCAA players in general, and CCHA players in particular, rated a bit higher than they should be. Mike Cammalleri is not the best player to come out of this draft, although the #1 rating the system gives him is closer to his ultimate value than the #49 spot he was actually selected with. But for R.J. Umberger (ranked #2, drafted #16), Chuck Kobasew (ranked #6, drafted #14), Anthony Aquino (ranked #7, drafted #92), and Mike Jarmuth (ranked #18, undrafted), the real scouts outdid the system.

We're not going to adjust the system in mid-stream, of course, because this realization is based on retrospective evaluation of the drafted players, which could not be done in 2001.

It's not all bad news for the Project-a-Tron, of course. As usual, the scouts beat the system in some cases, but the system also has its victories. Alexandr Svitov was drafted third overall, but had a PGVT+ of only 4.8, suggesting something like a third round ranking. Clearly, Svitov did not have the third-best career of 2001 draftees. And Mike Komisarek's PGVT+ of 5.7 suggests he should have gone in the second round, but he was taken at #7. After initial excitement over his size, his defensive deficiencies have shown through the past few years, suggesting he should not have been drafted where he was. Pascal Leclaire had one massive season, and goaltenders are much more of a crapshoot that position players, but his 4.1 PGVT+ would have put him in the third or fourth round. Finally, there's Tuomo Ruutu, another top-10 pick at #9, who's had quite a good career, but not an early first-rounder career. His PGVT+ is 6.0, putting him early in the second round, which seems a better bet, though to be fair, the top of this draft class is pretty thin after the first few.

Some hits, some misses. The system is not intended to be a replacement for scouting, of course, though the purpose of this series of articles is to suggest that objective, numbers-based player rankings deserves a larger role in player evaluation.

Fictional Saskatoon GM Ardal Ekrub has a serious influx of young talent coming up. The lineup is quite young, and more prospects are right on the horizon: Brian Campbell, Andrei Markov, Nick Schultz, Mike Comrie, Mike Ribeiro, Brad Richards, Brian Gionta. This in turn frees up aging players to be rolled over for draft picks. Three second rounders are acquired; Teppo Numminen to Phoenix for the 46th pick; Marek Zidlicky, Mike York, and Niko Kapanen to Nashville for the 33rd; and Yanic Perreault, Miroslav Guren, and Claude Lapointe to Montreal for the 37th.

Mike Cammalleri is a prize at the 26th pick, given that the Project-a-Tron had him ranked as the best player available. Of course, we know that he will not pan out to be the best from this draft year, but he clearly deserved to be selected higher than the 49th pick, which is where he was actually taken.

Ekrub might need to put a limit on the number of goaltenders drafted in a year. Before the draft, he already has seven netminders on the Reserve List, and this adds four more. He certainly doesn't need that many goaltenders, but on the other hand, this is the position that's most difficult to project, either systematically or otherwise. So it's probably best not to put arbitrary limits on the number of netminders drafted; it's the position most likely to produce a surprise in the later rounds.

The Reserve List needs some housekeeping, which results in the release of Remi Bergeron, David Musial, Kenton Smith, Mark Kosick, Warren Norris, Todd Robinson, Ben Thomson, Jiri Bicek, Yuri Butsayev, Egor Mikhailov, Maxim Rybin, Brett DeCecco, Brady Block, Frederick Brind'Amour, and Carl Mallette.

During the season, the Westerns pump in more goals than any other team in the league by quite a fair margin, almost 10% more than second-ranked Toronto. To do so, they're only too happy to leave goaltender Jose Theodore out to dry on many occasions. But the young netminder rises to the challenge again and again, putting up an incredible season which earns him many accolades, and his team the second rank in the league.

Joe Nieuwendyk and Yanic Perreault again lead the Westerns to excellent results in the faceoff circle, but the team again does not quite lead the league, finishing second to Carolina's 56.1% success rate. In the five seasons we've been tracking this, Saskatoon has finished first in the league twice, second twice, and third once. It remains to be seen whether this is something that results from the Project-a-Tron system, or it's just a results of having Nieuwendyk and Perreault in the lineup. Since only a few players take most of a team's draws, a couple of fluke players can heavily skew these results.

Playoffs, First Round

Chicago puts up little resistance, going down in four straight (1-0, 4-2, 1-0, 6-2).

Playoffs, Second Round

The Red Wings kept Saskatoon out of first place, both in their division and the entire league. A measure of revenge is exacted in the second playoff round, as the Westerns move on after six games (3-1, 2-4, 6-2, 4-5, 4-1, and 4-2).

Playoffs, Third Round

Things look bleak early in the third round. The Avalanche manage to take the first two matches, outscoring the mighty Westerns 8-3 in the process. But Saskatoon takes the next three games, and then wins game seven 4-2 to move on to the Cup final (1-3, 2-5, 3-2, 6-3, 8-2, 0-1, 4-2).

Playoffs, Final Round

The cinderella Hurricanes are the Westerns' foe in the final. Despite consistently excellent results in the regular season, Saskatoon has not won the Stanley Cup since 1997. Jose Theodore tops off his Vezina- and Hart-winning season by recording his third 1-0 shutout win of the playoffs in game five to seal the victory over Carolina (5-3, 7-2, 2-4, 3-2, 1-0). Theodore puts the cherry on top of the year with a Conn Smythe award as well.