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2013 NHL Entry Draft - Top draft prospects list and analysis

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August 23, 2012
Top 10 Prospects
Calgary Flames

by Corey Pronman

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Full list of NHL Organizational Rankings

Calgary Flames Top 10 Prospects

1. Sven Baertschi, Left Wing
2. Roman Cervenka, Center
3. John Gaudreau, Left Wing
4. Markus Granlund, Center
5. Mark Jankowski, Center
6. Max Reinhart, Center
7. Bill Arnold, Center
8. Brady Lamb, Defense
9. Greg Nemisz, Right Wing
10.Michael Ferland, Left Wing

Organizational Ranking: 20th

System Overview: After being a bottom-feeder system for several years, the Flames have started to assemble some quality young pieces into their organization recently and are steadily establishing a solid system. The development of Gaudreau, Granlund, Reinhart, and Ferland's has gone well, while Baertschi has emerged as a top of the line prospect. This is a forward-heavy system that really lacks quality defense prospects with T.J. Brodie graduated.

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1. Sven Baertschi, Left Wing
2010-11 Ranking: 1st
Date of birth: 10/05/1992
Age: 20
Height: 5'11''
Weight: 187
Shoots: Left
Statistics: 47 GP, 33 G, 94 P (Portland-WHL)
Acquired: First round, 13th overall in 2011 by Calgary

The Good: Arguably the most dangerous player in the WHL this year, Baertschi took his game from very good to a whole other level and elevated his stock to that of a top-end prospect. His skating improved from solid to above average, and he displayed great creativity with the puck coupled with his already high-end hockey sense and finishing skill. Baertschi is also a gritty player who gives it his all every shift and works hard in the corners. He's the total package and is ready for the NHL.

The Bad: Size is his only real weakness as he's certainly undersized and the 5'11'' listing is somewhat generous.

Projection: He could be a top line forward.

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2. Roman Cervenka, Center
2010-11 Ranking: N/A
Date of birth: 12/10/1985
Age: 26
Height: 5'11''
Weight: 201
Shoots: Left
Statistics: 54 GP, 23 G, 39 P, 18:35 ATOI (Avangard-KHL)
Acquired: Free agent

The Good: Cervenka is an above-average to plus puck-handler and passer who plays an aesthetically pleasing type of game with the possession skills he displays. His hockey sense is about at the point you would expect a 26-year-old skill player to be and he projects to potentially be a top-six forward in the NHL right away after crossing the pond from the KHL. He works at a solid level on the ice, too.

The Bad: Cervenka is a decent skater, but for a player his size, he lacks that separation gear you usually want from smaller players. He's tried to improve on his physical game, but he still projects as replacement level in that area.

Projection: He could be a good second line forward and that might happen right away.

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3. John Gaudreau, Left Wing
2010-11 Ranking: Unranked
Date of birth: 08/13/1993
Age: 19
Height: 5'7''
Weight: 150
Shoots: Left
Statistics: 44 GP, 21 G, 44 P (Boston College-Hockey East)
Acquired: Fourth round, 108th overall in 2011 by Calgary

The Good: Gaudreau had a tremendous freshman season, ending in the top 25 in NCAA scoring while playing the entire season as an 18 year old. He's a high-end if not better puck-handler who can make highlight-level dekes. Gaudreau's hockey sense is along the same lines as he has great patience and vision with the puck. His skill level makes scouts regularly go "wow" with one NHL executive saying he has a special "swagger" he carries himself with.

The Bad: Look at his height/weight splits and it says it all. He's small and needs a boatload of muscle. While Gaudreau is a fine skater who has a solid top gear and is agile, he isn't a high-end one that you would normally want a 5'7'' player to be.

Projection: He could be an above-average second line winger.

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4. Markus Granlund, Center
2010-11 Ranking: Unranked
Date of birth: 04/16/1993
Age: 19
Height: 5'11''
Weight: 172
Shoots: Left
Statistics: 47 GP, 15 G, 34 P, 15:24 ATOI (HIFK-SM-Liiga)
Acquired: Second round, 45th overall in 2011 by Calgary

The Good: Granlund may not have the elite skill of his brother Mikael, but he's got a fair amount of talent. He's an above-average puck-handler and passer who can flash high-end in those departments every now and then. He's a very smart player who regularly shows good instincts as a playmaker. Markus has one area that's superior to his brother as he's a better skater who projects as pro average in that area. He's good defensively as well.

The Bad: Size and his projected North American pro physical game will be the area that Granlund suffers in as it's hard to see him being better than below average. He needs to bulk up quite a bit.

Projection: He could be an average second line forward.

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5. Mark Jankowski, Center
2010-11 Ranking: N/A
Date of birth: 09/13/1994
Age: 17
Height: 6'3''
Weight: 170
Shoots: Left
Statistics: 57 GP, 53 G, 93 P (Stanstead- Quebec Prep)
Acquired: First round, 21st overall in 2012 by Calgary

The Good: Jankowski is a pretty skilled forward who is an above-average skater, possessing good standstill agility and a fine top gear. He's a high-end thinker with great offensive creativity with the puck on top of having great vision as a playmaker. His raw possession skills, to go along with good height and his skating ability, give him a fair amount of upside. Jankowski also has a fine on-ice work ethic.

The Bad: His frame is really undeveloped as he's kind of skin and bones. Combine that with the league he played in and where he is in his development and Jankowski is your prototypical "project" prospect who is a good four or five years away.

Projection: He could be an above-average second line center.

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6. Max Reinhart, Center
2010-11 Ranking: 4th
Date of birth: 02/04/1992
Age: 20
Height: 6'1''
Weight: 185
Shoots: Left
Statistics: 61 GP, 28 G, 78 P (Kootenay-WHL)
Acquired: Third round, 64th overall in 2010 by Calgary

The Good: Reinhart is a high-end thinker, who despite not being the most naturally gifted offensive player is able to create scoring chances due to his great hockey sense and how quickly he processes the game. His best offensive ability is as a passer and his sense translates to his defensive game as well. Reinhart has been described by one scout as a "ball of energy" in terms of his playing style and his desirable physical game. He has the potential to be a tough defensive minutes player while being decent offensively.

The Bad: Reinhart's skating isn't all that good and while it's improved it still grades as a tick below average. He needs to continue bulking up in order to make the transition to the pro game next season.

Projection: He could be a league-average pro.

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7. Bill Arnold, Center
2010-11 Ranking: Unranked
Date of birth: 05/13/1992
Age: 20
Height: 6'0''
Weight: 210
Shoots: Left
Statistics: 42 GP, 17 G, 36 P (Boston College-Hockey East)
Acquired: Fourth round, 108th overall in 2010 by Calgary

The Good: Arnold is a fine do-it-all player who lacks a real standout skill but he can help contribute to his team in several areas. He's a very hard worker with a pretty developed body for his age and he projects as a solid physical player. He's a smart player who can move the puck on top of having decent enough hands to make some plays with the puck. At times, Arnold even flashes above-average offensive skill. He moves at a decent level, too, and is a good defensive forward. He can play center and wing.

The Bad: Arnold lacks the offensive upside to really threaten defensemen and projects as more of a complementary player.

Projection: He's tracking as a very good third line forward, but I think he might have another level.

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8. Brady Lamb, Defense
2010-11 Ranking: N/A
Date of birth: 08/15/1988
Age: 24
Height: 6'1''
Weight: 220
Shoots: Right
Statistics: 41 GP, 9 G, 31 P (Minnesota-Duluth-WCHA)
Acquired: College free agent

The Good: Lamb is a very strong, physically-developed defender who likes to play a physical brand of hockey and lay into his checks. He was used as a tough-minutes defender for Duluth in his senior season, being relied to check the best players while also being leaned on as a primary puck-mover. He has solid two-way hockey sense, and combining that with his physical game gives him solid defensive value.

The Bad: Lamb isn't an overly-gifted offensive player, and while he's not bad, he doesn't project as a pro-average points producer. His skating is also a tick below average.

Projection: He could be a good third pairing defender.

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9. Greg Nemisz, Right Wing
2010-11 Ranking: 3rd
Date of birth: 06/06/1990
Age: 22
Height: 6'3''
Weight: 201
Shoots: Right
Statistics: 51 GP, 13 G, 29 P (Abbotsford-AHL)
Acquired: First round, 25th overall in 2008 by Calgary

The Good: Nemisz took a step forward this year from a physical game standpoint. His muscle mass stood out and he was able to play a pro-level physical brand with effectiveness. He's an above-average thinker who was makes smart reads at both ends. Nemisz is a hard-working player who will battle well in the corners and forecheck with effort. He has fine defensive value as well.

The Bad: At this point, any real hopes of Nemisz being an NHL scorer are starting to fade as he doesn't really create at that level. His skating still isn't all that good either, as he can be a tad sluggish.

Projection: He could be a bottom six forward.

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10. Michael Ferland, Left Wing
2010-11 Ranking: Unranked
Date of birth: 08/17/1992
Age: 20
Height: 6'2''
Weight: 208
Shoots: Left
Statistics: 68 GP, 47 G, 96 P (Brandon-WHL)
Acquired: Fifth round, 133rd overall in 2010 by Calgary

The Good: Ferland took significant strides in his development this season. He's a big body forward who one scout describes as "tough as nails" while another praises his physical game saying, "he's got a lot of toughness, he protects the puck well with his body, and he goes hard to the net." Ferland has decent hockey sense as he can be a notable passer who thinks well in his own end, too.

The Bad: Ferland has okay hands, but he's not really a puck skills guy. His skating is decent for his size but a tick below-average overall. He also needs to improve his conditioning.

Projection: He could be a third line forward.

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The Next Five

11. Patrick Sieloff, Defense: Sieloff is a tough, physical defender with solid mobility but not much offensive ability.

12. Paul Byron, Center: Byron is a great skater with skill who plays with energy. He's very small, though, and at this point he could be tracking as an AHLer.

13. Leland Irving, Goaltender: Irving probably could be a decent back up this season but his ceiling isn't much higher than that.

14. Chris Breen, Defense: Breen is huge and has decent hockey sense, but he has no offensive ability and is a fringe skater.

15. Coda Gordon, Left Wing: Gordon's skating is a weakness, but he's got a good physical game, a great shot, and decent hands.

The Sleeper: Ryan Culkin, Defense

Culkin doesn't have a great skill set, but he's a smart player who always seemed to know how to make the right plays with the puck. I could see a big uptick in his production in Quebec next season.

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Calgary Flames Organizational Top 10

Players 22 or under as of 09/15/2012 or still considered a prospect as defined here.

1. Sven Baertschi, Left Wing
2. Roman Cervenka, Center
3. T.J. Brodie, Defense
4. John Gaudreau, Left Wing
5.Markus Granlund, Center
6. Roman Horak, Center
7. Mark Jankowski, Center
8. Max Reinhart, Center
9. Bill Arnold, Center
10. Brady Lamb, Defense

I'm a T.J. Brodie fan, as I had him as a Top 100 NHL Prospects at this time last year, and while he certainly had to be guarded in his first year as a pro, he certainly offensive tools to his game. As he develops and steadily logs tougher minutes, he could be a real power-play threat for Calgary. I was a little surprised to see Roman Horak in the NHL as a regular, not because I don't like him as a player, but I certainly would have liked to see him get a full AHL season or so. He has puck possession elements to his game between his skill level and hockey sense and could be an above-average pro down the line.

Corey Pronman is an author of Hockey Prospectus. You can contact Corey by clicking here or click here to see Corey's other articles.

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