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The seasoned defending Stanley Cup champions take on the young upstart Chicago Blackhawks in what's sure to be a titanic offensive struggle. What will it take to win the battle between two of the Original Six teams?
Detroit Offense vs Chicago Defense
Detroit Red Wings Offense GVT: + 31.9 (Rank: 1st in NHL)
Chicago Blackhawks Defense: + 13.7 (Rank: 4th in NHL)
Chicago Blackhawks Goaltending: + 6.7 (Rank: 10th in NHL)
Total GVT Difference: + 11.5 Detroit
Detroit has possibly the best offense in the league. It's potent, and it's very deep, generating 1.28 GVT/game. They're the only team that can boast three exceptional puck-moving defensemen in Niklas Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski and Niklas Kronwall. Up front the Red Wings enjoy the exceptionally talented Pavel Datsyuk, Marian Hossa, Henrik Zetterberg and postseason specialist Johan Franzen, not to mention Jiri Hudler, and Tomas Holmstrom. While Datsyuk has been inexplicably quiet in the postseason (he must have heard I picked him in the first round in my fantasy draft), Daniel Cleary has filled the gap with 9 points in 11 games, which is six times the scoring pace he set in last year's postseason.
Overall Chicago is a very strong defensive team, averaging 1.05 of defensive GVT per game in the regular season. The Hawks have several strong defensive players, such as Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook on defense, but the offensive depth of the Wings may expose their more one-dimensional players like Patrick Kane and Cam Barker. Nikolai Khabibulin will have to make the step from good to great, which he proved he could be in the regular season and in flashes of the first two rounds.
Advantage: Detroit Red Wings
Chicago Offense vs Detroit Defense
Chicago Blackhawks Offense GVT: + 19.1 (Rank: 5th in NHL)
Detroit Red Wings Defense: + 15.2 (Rank: 3rd in NHL)
Detroit Red Wings Goaltending: - 21.4 (Rank: 27th in NHL)
Total GVT Difference: +25.5 Chicago
While lacking the same weapons as the Red Wings, Chicago is still one of the best offensive teams in the league, which they proved by scoring an inordinate number of goals against Miikka Kiprusoff and Roberto Luongo. Their current lineup averages 0.93 of offensive GVT per game. Like the Wings, their offense is spread out. Six of their twelve forwards have at least 9 points, including the surprising Dave Bolland. Dustin Byfuglien has been another surprise for the Hawks, bagging 7 points in the first 12 games.
Detroit is a highly underrated team defensively, their current lineup averaging 0.69 GVT per game defensively, if you ignore goaltending. Datsyuk, Hossa, Holmstrom, Franzen and even Zetterberg are excellent models of two-way forwards, and Lidstrom and Rafalski can keep the puck out almost as effectively as they can help put it in. Andreas Lilja can also be a highly underrated defensive asset, but he is not available due to injury. The real problem is Chris Osgood, who was perhaps the regular season's worst starting goaltender. The Red Wings would be unbeatable with a great goaltender, but even with Osgood they're still not very easy to score against.
Advantage: Chicago Blackhawks
Legend:
RPM: Relative Plus/Minus
ValO: Offensive GVT
ValD: Defensive GVT
ValG: Goaltending GVT
TOT: Offensive and Defensive GVT combined (Shootout GVT not included)
Player P GP G A PTS +/- RPM ValO ValD TOT
Pavel Datsyuk F 81 32 65 97 +34 +27.6 17.1 7.3 24.4
Nicklas Lidstrom D 78 16 43 59 +31 +23.2 10.9 9.8 20.7
Marian Hossa F 74 40 31 71 +27 +22.4 14.0 5.7 19.7
Brian Rafalski D 78 10 49 59 +17 +10.9 10.5 6.1 16.6
Henrik Zetterberg F 77 31 42 73 +13 +7.2 11.9 3.6 15.5
Johan Franzen F 71 34 25 59 +21 +16.3 10.6 4.6 15.2
Jiri Hudler F 82 23 34 57 +7 +3.9 8.6 2.3 10.9
Niklas Kronwall D 80 6 45 51 +2 -6.3 8.0 2.0 10.1
Tomas Holmstrom F 53 14 23 37 +18 +16.3 4.4 3.9 8.3
Valtteri Filppula F 80 12 28 40 +9 +3.4 3.4 2.4 5.8
Brett Lebda D 65 6 10 16 +9 +5.8 2.7 2.9 5.6
Mikael Samuelsson F 81 19 21 40 0 -3.0 3.4 1.0 4.4
Andreas Lilja D 60 2 11 13 +13 +6.6 0.2 3.8 4.0
Daniel Cleary F 74 14 26 40 0 -6.5 2.7 1.0 3.7
Jonathan Ericsson D 19 1 3 4 -1 -2.8 0.1 -0.1 0.0
Brad Stuart D 67 2 13 15 -3 -11.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.6
Chris Chelios D 28 0 0 0 +1 -0.4 -1.1 0.5 -0.6
Tomas Kopecky F 79 6 13 19 -7 -10.5 -1.2 -0.5 -1.7
Derek Meech D 41 2 5 7 -12 -14.1 0.2 -2.6 -2.4
Darren Helm F 16 0 1 1 -7 -7.9 -1.6 -1.0 -2.6
Kirk Maltby F 78 5 6 11 -9 -12.0 -2.1 -0.9 -3.0
Kris Draper F 79 7 10 17 -13 -18.5 -2.0 -1.3 -3.3
Goalie GP GAA PCT ValG ValD TOT
Ty Conklin 37.4 2.51 0.909 3.6 0.8 4.4
Chris Osgood 44.4 3.09 0.887 -17.4 1.1 -16.3
Player P GP G A PTS +/- RPM ValO ValD TOT
Martin Havlat F 81 29 48 77 +29 +17.9 11.1 5.6 16.7
Duncan Keith D 77 8 36 44 +33 +15.3 6.3 8.5 14.8
Jonathan Toews F 82 34 35 69 +12 +3.9 9.6 3.0 12.6
Kris Versteeg F 78 22 31 53 +15 +5.3 7.9 3.2 11.1
Andrew Ladd F 82 15 34 49 +26 +14.4 5.3 4.8 10.1
Patrick Kane F 80 25 45 70 -2 -7.7 9.1 0.6 9.7
Brian Campbell D 82 7 45 52 +5 -4.5 7.0 2.7 9.7
Dave Bolland F 81 19 28 47 +19 +4.9 4.6 3.7 8.3
Patrick Sharp F 61 26 18 44 +6 +2.0 5.9 1.8 7.7
Brent Seabrook D 82 8 18 26 +23 +6.7 1.4 6.0 7.4
Cam Barker D 68 6 34 40 -6 -11.1 6.0 -0.1 5.9
Aaron Johnson D 38 3 5 8 +19 +14.3 0.7 5.0 5.7
Dustin Byfuglien F 77 15 16 31 +7 +2.8 2.0 1.9 3.9
Matt Walker D 65 1 13 14 +7 -3.6 0.2 1.7 1.9
Troy Brouwer F 69 10 16 26 +7 +2.0 -0.4 1.9 1.5
Niklas Hjalmarsson D 21 1 2 3 +4 +1.4 0.1 1.1 1.2
Colin Fraser F 81 6 11 17 +3 -5.8 -0.8 1.1 0.3
Adam Burish F 66 6 3 9 +3 -1.6 -1.3 0.9 -0.4
Samuel Pahlsson F 65 7 11 18 -17 -21.0 -2.7 -1.7 -4.4
Goalie GP GAA PCT ValG ValD TOT
Nikolai Khabibulin 41.1 2.33 0.919 13.9 0.4 14.3
Cristobal Huet 39.2 2.53 0.909 3.7 0.8 4.5
Detroit Power Play vs Chicago Penalty Kill
PPO PPD PEND PPTOT
Detroit 23.1 4.1 2.0 29.2
NHLRANK 1st 2nd 12th 1st
SHO SHD PENT SHTOT
Chicago 2.4 -1.5 1.8 2.7
NHLRANK 6th 17th 13th 15th
The Red Wings had the best power play in the league in the regular season, thanks to Pavel Datsyuk and their tremendous depth on the point. In the postseason they have the second-best power play, striking on 27.1% of opportunities. In Chicago they're up against above-average penalty killing at best.
Advantage: Detroit Red Wings
Chicago Power Play vs Detroit Penalty Kill
PPO PPD PEND PPTOT
Chicago 1.2 2.3 3.7 7.2
NHLRANK 12th 10th 3rd 9th
SHO SHD PENT SHTOT
Detroit -1.5 -9.0 2.3 -8.2
NHLRANK 20th 25th 10th 23rd
Chicago has had the best power play so far in the postseason, surpassing what they would have hoped to achieve based on their regular season performance. The trend should continue against the Detroit Red Wings because if it's true what they say about your goaltender being your best penalty killer, then their 3rd-worst postseason penalty killing percentage of 71.4% means a lot of red lights will flash when there's a Wing in the sin bin.
Advantage: Chicago Blackhawks
Season Series
Detroit was 4-2 against Chicago this year, including two shutout victories. The first two games between these teams saw Chicago ahead for the first two periods of play, only for Detroit to come back in the third to force an overtime and eventually win in a shootout. On December 30th, the Detroit Red Wings dismantled the Blackhawks and broke their nine game winning streak with a 4-0 victory and again easily disposed of the Blackhawks in the Winter Classic at Wrigley Field on New Years day. Finally Chicago won a pair of games during the final weekend of the regular season. Beware though, as this is a very small sample size.
Advantage: Detroit Red Wings
Injuries and Intangibles
Chicago has been very fortunate with injuries, and enters this series healthy and with slightly more rest than Detroit. The Red Wings are glad to have Draper and Rafalski back in the lineup, but would love to see Kopecky back, who was injured in game 4. Andreas Lilja is not likely to return.
The key intangible is unquestionably experience. The Red Wings are the defending Stanley Cup champions, and have a whole team of players with countless playoff experience. The Blackhawks are just the opposite, being led by players that weren't even in the NHL the last time the team made the playoffs. Still, they must be hungry to end the longest active continuous Cup drought in the league at 48 years.
Advantage: Detroit Red Wings
Prediction
This should be a very explosive series offensively, as both teams have tremendous offensive weaponry that has wreaked havoc on their opponents thus far, and average goaltending at best. Both teams will probably find their opponents to be at least twice the test as their opponents thus far, so I wouldn't be surprised if either team is pushed aside easier than expected. Nevertheless, the numbers call this series as being almost dead even. Our Puck Prospectus series odds report has this as the closest series through three rounds, and probably for the entirety of the postseason, with Detroit winning 50.5 % of the time. All other things being equal, home ice advantage, postseason experience and the more explosive offense will prevail.
Prediction: Detroit Red Wings in 7 Games
Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.
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