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The first seeded Boston Bruins (53-19-10, 116 Pts) have been the Beasts of the East all season long; they have not surprised anyone for quite a while. In contrast, the sixth seeded Carolina Hurricanes (45-30-7, 97 Pts) were on the outside of the playoffs looking in until they cranked it up for the season’s stretch run. Their improbable comeback to rip game, set and match cruelly away from New Jersey in the last 90 seconds of Game 7 was one of the unlikeliest finishes hockey has seen in recent memory. While most of the Bruins’ players may be too young and naïve to have any seeds of doubt regarding their upcoming series, some wary Boston fans may be getting an uneasy feeling about the ‘Canes karma and what is in store for them in Round 2.
Boston Offense vs. Carolina Defense
Boston Offense GVT: +25.3 (Rank: 3rd in NHL)
Carolina Defense GVT: +7.7 (Rank: 10th in NHL)
Carolina Goaltending GVT: +3.7 (Rank 13th in NHL)
Boston features scoring by three balanced lines and seven 20-plus goal scorers. While offensive GVT ranks Marc Savard (+13.1), David Krejci (+12.3), Phil Kessel (+11.8) and Zdeno Chara (+8.4) as the Boston’s top offensive contributors, the Bruins’ line of Michael Ryder, David Krejci and Milan Lucic did the most damage in the Montreal series.
Carolina’s above average defense relies on defensemen Anton Babchuk (+6.3 Defensive GVT), Joe Corvo (+4.9) and Tim Gleason (+3.2) as well as forwards Eric Staal (+5.9), Matt Cullen (+3.8) and Ray Whitney (+3.7).
Cam Ward posted a fine +15.8 Goaltending GVT during the regular season (.916 save percentage), but Ward really brings his A game to the playoffs (.920 career playoff mark, 1 Stanley Cup championship, 1 Conn Smythe award). He outdueled Martin Brodeur in the first round (.938 to .929 save percentage).
Carolina will be tougher than the regular season numbers indicate.
Advantage: Boston Bruins
Carolina Offense vs. Boston Defense
Carolina Offense GVT: -3.3 (Rank: 19th in NHL)
Boston Defense GVT: +1.9 (Rank: 16th in NHL)
Boston Goaltending GVT: +29.3 (Rank 2nd in NHL)
Carolina’s offense was uninspiring for most of the regular season, but they are clearly improved. The Hurricanes are led by center Eric Staal (40 G, 35 A, +11.1 offensive GVT), forward Ray Whitney (24 G, 53 A, +10.0 GVT) and defenseman Anton Babchuk (16 G 19 A +7.4 GVT). Eric Staal is a notoriously streaky player. On the plus side, Staal can dominate: He scored four goals against Tampa Bay in March and he scored five goals against the Devils in their playoff series, including the series winner. On the minus side, he can strangely disappear for weeks at a time – Not a good trait for a sustained playoff run. For instance, during a 16 game stretch spanning the months of November and December, he scored in only one game (And wouldn’t you know it – It was a hat trick). Ray Whitney and Chad LaRose matched Staal’s 7 points in the series. While Babchuk was a revelation in the regular season, he was surprisingly held scoreless in the Jersey series, to the point where he was benched in Game 5.
The Bruins are anchored on defense by blueliners Dennis Wideman (+6.7 Defensive GVT), Zdeno Chara (+4.0) and Mark Stuart (+3.8), and forwards David Krejci (+6.0), Blake Wheeler (+5.5) and Michael Ryder (+4.5).
Tim Thomas (+36.3 Goaltending GVT) had a near flawless regular season (.933 save percentage), but his postseason experience still only spans 11 games. He was well rested at the end of the regular season by timesharing with veteran Manny Fernandez. He was not significantly tested by the Canadiens (.946).
Advantage: Boston Bruins
Boston Power Play vs. Carolina Penalty Kill
Boston Power Play Offense GVT: +14.7 (Rank: 4th in NHL)
Carolina Penalty Kill Defense GVT: -2.0 (Rank: 19th in NHL)
Boston’s 23.6% power play improved to 25.0% during the first round (4 for 16). Unfortunately, the Bruins’ power play advantage may be minimized by the fact that Carolina was the 3rd least penalized team during the regular season.
Advantage: Boston Bruins
Carolina Power Play vs. Boston Penalty Kill
Carolina Power Play Offense GVT: -0.9 (Rank: 18th in NHL)
Boston Penalty Kill Defense GVT: +4.0 (Rank: 12th in NHL)
In addition to ranking in the bottom half of the NHL on the power play during the regular season, the Hurricanes managed only 2 PPG in 29 opportunities against the Devils. In their first round series, Boston allowed 0 PPG in a mere 8 opportunities. As Boston was the 4th least penalized team in the NHL in the regular season, Carolina’s chances are likely to be few and far between.
Advantage: Boston Bruins
Season Series Results
Not only did the Bruins sweep the Hurricanes in the regular season, but Boston dominated the four games, outscoring Carolina by counts of 4-2, 4-2, 5-1 and 5-1. The silver lining for the Hurricanes is that all of the games occurred within the relatively brief span of December 20th to February 17th, before the ‘Canes’ hot streak began.
Advantage: Boston Bruins
Injuries and Intangibles
It’s thought that defenseman Andrew Ference will return to the lineup after missing round 1 against Montreal. If not, the Bruins have trade deadline acquisition Steve Montador to fill in.
Carolina does not have any major injuries.
As I stated last series, the Bruins are the one remaining Boston team without a recent championship. If the Bruins fall behind, the young teams’ nerve may be tested by Boston fans and media alike.
The Hurricanes were one of the winningest teams in the NHL since the trading deadline and they pulled off the upset against Martin Brodeur and 3rd seeded New Jersey. Cam Ward may be a solid regular season goaltender, but more often than not, he is magic in the postseason.
Advantage: Carolina Hurricanes
Prediction
The Bruins are a big, tough, deep and talented team. Their goaltender, Tim Thomas, has been on the top of his game all season long. That we know.
The question is what to make of the Hurricanes right now. Eric Staal, Ray Whitney and company have looked like world beaters for the last two games. Jussi Jokinen has proven that he knows how to pull game tying and winning goals out of a hat with regularity. Cam Ward looks like he’s regained his Conn Smythe form.
How can the ‘Canes win? Catch Boston rusty in Game 1. Have Cam Ward steal Game 2. Get the Boston doubt machine churning. Win the series in 6 or 7 games.
Alas, Carolina doesn’t have the depth to match all of Boston’s lines. Boston’s second and third lines will outscore Carolina’s. The Bruins can throw a checking line at Staal if they choose and they will certainly pair Zdeno Chara against him. If the Hurricanes can catch the Bruins napping in Game 1, the series may even stretch out to 7 games. A more likely scenario is a shorter series, especially based on Boston’s considerable success against Carolina this year.
Prediction: Boston Bruins in 5 games
Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.
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