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The big splash on Day One of the 2011 NHL Entry Draft was the trade engineered by GM Chuck Fletcher of the host Minnesota Wild, sending top-pairing defenseman Brent Burns to the San Jose Sharks for top-six forward Devon Setoguchi and highly-regarded prospect Charlie Coyle.
But was the trade worth it for Minnesota?
Behind my analysis of Brent Burns as a potential trade target this offseason…was more analysis. Let me share some of that with you.
Burns was drafted by Minnesota in the first round of the 2003 NHL Entry Draft, 20th overall. The Wild converted him from forward to defense…which explains a lot of the high-end offensive skills the 6'5" defenseman still brings to the table.
Brent Burns at 5-on-5
Season ESTOI ESP/60 Rel Corsi
2007-08 17:21 0.90 5.2
2008-09 17:00 0.62 2.9
2009-10 17:13 0.55 3.9
2010-11 19:15 1.18 9.5
Average 17:49 0.86 5.7
-Even Strength Time On Ice includes all even strength situations.
-Even Strength Points Per 60 Minutes is for 5-on-5 only.
-Relative Corsi is for 5-on-5 only. Equals shot differential
while on ice minus shot differential while off ice.
In 2010-11, Burns' career-high ESP/60 driven by a career-high 10.0% shooting percentage. As his career shooting percentage is 6.9%, that rate is not sustainable going forward. Similarly, his career-high 0.21 goals per game (in all situations) and 0.58 points per game (in all situations) are expected to regress. His three prior seasons' points per game: 0.52, 0.46, 0.43. Burns' Relative Corsi—a proxy for possession—has consistently been 5th or 6th on the Wild.
Brent Burns at 5-on-4
Season PPTOI PPP/60 SHTOI
2007-08 3:09 4.15 2:35
2008-09 3:13 4.44 2:11
2009-10 3:06 3.45 2:02
2010-11 3:04 2.55 2:42
Average 3:08 3.61 2:26
-Power Play Time On Ice includes all man advantage situations.
-Power Play Points Per 60 Minutes is for 5-on-4 only.
-Short-Handed Time On Ice includes all penalty killing situations.
While Burns was highly fortunate at even strength in 2010-11, he was unusually unlucky with the man advantage. Therefore, his PPP/60 can be expected to bounce back to recent levels (Because of much less ice time than even strength and therefore a much smaller sample size, it's critical to look at power play stats as an average of the past several seasons). Burns is a contributor in all situations—even strength, power play, short-handed—while logging over 25 minutes per game in 2010-11.
In looking for players that NHL teams would consider similar to Brent Burns as far as value and role, the following criteria were used:
-No older than 27 years old on Feb. 1, 2011 (Burns: 25)
-At least 20 minutes of ice time per game (Burns: 25:02)
-At least 0.40 points per game (Burns: 0.58)
-At least 2 power play goals (Burns: 8)
-At least 40 games played (Burns: 80)
23 statistically comparable players were identified. Of these, 10 will be RFAs at the end of their contracts. The six that are entry level contracts were considered comparable players but not comparable contracts.
Comparable players to Brent Burns
-Contracts signed in 2008-09: Brent Burns, Christian Ehrhoff, Mike Green (RFA),
Andrej Meszaros, Dion Phaneuf, Shea Weber (RFA), Dennis Wideman
-Contracts signed in 2009-10: Alexander Edler, Tobias Enstrom, Alex Goligoski (RFA),
Keith Yandle (RFA)
-Contracts signed in 2010-11: Dustin Byfuglien, Duncan Keith, Kris Letang,
James Wisniewski
-Contracts signed in 2011-12: Mark Giordano, Jack Johnson, Brent Seabrook
-Comparable players, but on entry level contracts: Drew Doughty, Cam Fowler,
Erik Karlsson, Tyler Myers, Alex Pietrangelo, P.K. Subban
How does Burns rank among this group? Pretty much in the middle, meaning that the contracts of his "peers" will be a good indication of what he should be making at market rates. Sort them as you will—it's done by Goals Versus Threshold (GVT) below—but Burns ends up pretty much in the middle of the pack. The stats he ranked higher in last season relative to his comparable players (e.g. ESP/60) he's due to regress in, and the stats that he ranked lower in (e.g. PPP/60) he's due for a rebound.
Where Burns ranks among comparable players (by GVT)
Player Age TOI P/GP Cap GVT ESP/60 PPP/60 Rel Corsi
Alex Pietrangelo* 21 22:00 0.54 3.167 15.1 1.25 3.39 8.0
Dustin Byfuglien 25 23:18 0.65 5.200 14.3 1.01 3.89 20.7
Keith Yandle 24 24:22 0.72 1.200 13.8 1.21 3.92 1.7
Alex Goligoski 25 22:14 0.55 1.833 13.3 0.86 4.02 5.6
Brent Seabrook 25 24:23 0.59 5.800 13.1 0.95 5.38 2.5
Drew Doughty* 21 25:38 0.53 3.475 12.8 0.98 2.57 9.1
Christian Ehrhoff 28 23:59 0.63 3.100 12.7 0.82 5.86 11.5
Kris Letang 23 24:02 0.61 3.500 12.7 0.98 3.85 9.3
Shea Weber 25 25:19 0.59 4.500 12.7 1.09 3.15 7.2
Brent Burns 25 25:02 0.58 3.550 12.3 1.18 2.55 9.5
Andrej Meszaros 25 21:07 0.40 4.000 11.6 1.07 1.83 2.2
Tobias Enstrom 26 23:41 0.71 3.750 11.4 0.96 4.24 8.1
Duncan Keith 27 26:53 0.55 5.538 10.3 0.68 5.05 8.4
James Wisniewski 26 22:56 0.68 3.250 9.8 0.96 4.65 6.5
Mark Giordano 27 23:08 0.52 4.020 9.4 0.66 4.11 7.1
Alexander Edler 24 24:17 0.65 3.250 9.4 0.95 5.82 4.0
Tyler Myers* 20 22:27 0.46 1.300 9.0 0.89 3.83 11.1
Erik Karlsson* 20 23:30 0.60 1.300 8.4 1.00 4.27 5.1
P.K. Subban* 21 22:16 0.49 0.875 8.3 0.87 4.25 10.3
Dion Phaneuf 25 25:18 0.45 6.500 7.3 0.78 2.69 -1.5
Mike Green 25 25:11 0.49 5.250 6.1 0.84 2.38 7.2
Dennis Wideman 27 23:58 0.53 3.938 5.9 0.80 3.36 1.8
Cam Fowler* 19 22:07 0.53 1.400 5.4 0.55 5.02 -8.4
Jack Johnson 24 23:11 0.51 4.357 4.1 0.50 4.68 -8.7
*Entry level contract
My conclusion was that Brent Burns was a legit top pairing defenseman getting paid about $1 million less than what would be expected at current market rates—worth more like $4.5 million than $3.5 million per season. Additionally, with the thin free agent class and the sizeable cap increase, it seemed that trading for NHL talent would be cheaper than signing it this offseason.
That said, this trade was a win-win for Minnesota and San Jose.
The window of opportunity has been closing fast on the Sharks, with their core of Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Dany Heatley and Dan Boyle all north of 30 years old. Calder finalist Logan Couture was their one hope for further improvement next season before the Burns deal. As it stands now, San Jose's defense corps looks truly formidable heading into 2011-12.
On the other hand, the trade was a slick retool for Minnesota. While it's true that they give up a major talent on the blue line, they do address their biggest weakness, enough legit top-six forwards. By Rob Vollman's measuring stick of 1.8 ESP/60, only Martin Havlat (2.4), Mikko Koivu (2.2), Pierre-Marc Bouchard (2.1) and Guillaume Latendresse (2.0) were comfortably in top-six range, at least if you don't believe in Cal Clutterbuck's (1.9) one season bump yet. Setoguchi has hovered around 2.0 over the past three seasons (2.3, 1.8, 2.0) with San Jose. As far as playing style, the Wild also like Setoguchi's tendencies to shoot, on a team otherwise full of pass-first forwards.
And if Setoguchi fills a top-six role in the present, Charlie Coyle may fill one even better for the future. Minnesota is dreaming of Coyle to be a skilled, big body, two-way center that can match up against the best of the West.
What about next offseason? Look for comparable players like Alex Goligoski (RFA), Mike Green (RFA), Tyler Myers (RFA) and Dennis Wideman to hit the market, unless re-signed beforehand. Likewise, Brent Burns may remain an unrestricted free agent as well, able to test the market. And who knows? It's possible that Burns may even return in a year to "The State of Hockey", a place that he likes to call home.
Thanks to behindthenet.ca and capgeek.com for some of the stats above.
Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.
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